Mpc Predictions

[MarkG]

possibly another two as growth slows even further and inflation dips back.

Since when is inflation going to go _down_, particularly if the BoE cut rates and destroy the pound?

Right now we're seeing stagflation, with the economy collapsing and inflation driven higher and higher by events completely out of the British government's control. What's going to bring that to an end?

Or do you just expect Brown to continue fiddling the figures? Even the stupidest amongst us are unlikely to believe that for long.

Edited September 30, 2005 by MarkG

[Rapid Descent]

If you want unbounded wealth inequality then vote Tory next time.

Seriously, even the tories would struggle to come up with something less equal than the new pension arrangements.

Ah - I know, says Gordon - we'll allow people to put property into SIPPs. But we won't allow them to borrow any significant sums to buy that property, that'll keep the plebs from getting a piece of the action. Then we'll prevent people from investing more than their wage each year. That way only people earning well over £100k per annum and with a pension pot of half a million will benefit.

Brilliant! And this is equal wealth distribution? The funny thing is very few of the rich will be stupid enough to put any significant portion of their pension into property until after the crash.

As for the topic, the spineless MPC will hold.

[Ursa Minor]

As for the topic, the spineless MPC will hold.

Yes I rather suspect that will be the case. I keep hearing about how we have to keep our interest rates higher than the US (1%-1.5%?) and it seems that the Federal Reserve intend to keep inching up their rate, so I wonder how much room the MPC thinks it has to maneuver. They have a target of keeping inflation below 2%, surely therefore they can't allow it to go up to 3% as some posters have suggested.

Recent news has me really worried about the economy. I wonder if those of us who have saved rather than spent every penny we earned, who have already paid the price of the current economy through poor returns on those savings (I'm not brave enough or solvent enough to gamble on the stock market) will end up punished. Either through erosion of savings by inflation, or having to spend said savings to live because we get downsized!

Whatever happens, I don't think it is going to be fun for anyone.

UM

[Rapid Descent]

I wonder how much room the MPC thinks it has to maneuver. They have a target of keeping inflation below 2%, surely therefore they can't allow it to go up to 3% as some posters have suggested.

If the inflation rate goes up to 3%, doesn't Mervyn have to write a open letter to Gordon Brown explaining why, or something? I'm hoping it will look something like this:

Dear Mr Brown,

I am writing this open letter to explain why inflation was able to climb above target to 3%.

IT IS BECAUSE THE F***WIT STOOGES YOU PUT ON MY COMMITTEE ALL VOTED FOR A RATE CUT IN AUGUST YOU FESTERING TURD

Yours Sincerely,

Swervin' Mervyn King

Governor of the Bank of England

[frugalista]

Deleted, as I have now read the rest of the thread.

Edited September 30, 2005 by frugalista

[Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates]

Interesting article written back in May 05 by City Editor of the Mail, at the time Oil

was around $47 a barrel and the pound was around $1.90.

"A weakening pound will not be good for the Bank of England one of the reasons

it has been able to hold interest rates down in recent times is that the firm

exchange rate for sterling has offered bulwark against inflation."

So today the pound's at $1.77 and oil $62.50. Don't see a lot of room to manoeuvre

regarding more rate cuts. Hold this month and the next move for me is up early

next year. But who knows.

Anyone who's not quite sure what bulwark is (as I wasn't so sure) it means wall

used as a fortification, person or thing, acting as a defence.

Edited September 30, 2005 by Time 2 raise Interest Rates

[Jason]

Hold, definately. If the rate were to move (either way) I think they would show it in the voting pattern and/or minutes in the preceding month.

Oh, and of course they should be raising them!

[Guest Alright Jack]

Seriously, even the tories would struggle to come up with something less equal than the new pension arrangements.

Ah - I know, says Gordon - we'll allow people to put property into SIPPs. But we won't allow them to borrow any significant sums to buy that property, that'll keep the plebs from getting a piece of the action. Then we'll prevent people from investing more than their wage each year. That way only people earning well over £100k per annum and with a pension pot of half a million will benefit.

Brilliant! And this is equal wealth distribution? The funny thing is very few of the rich will be stupid enough to put any significant portion of their pension into property until after the crash.

As for the topic, the spineless MPC will hold.

Yes. I think NuLab have come unstuck here. Ultimately (as I make no bones about) I believe there is a real crisis in housing stock of the decent size family quality variety and Lab have overlooked the issue. Lots of investment has poured into a cheap and easy money for nothing kind of enterprise (BTL flat pack appartments that serve no use to anyone) and has caused a problem of epic proportions.

I really don't know what it is they are trying to achieve but I suspect it is a desperate measure for some end. If I were Brown I'd just let the speculators take what's coming to them.

Edited September 30, 2005 by Alright Jack

[dapperdave]

Odds on betfair

No Change 1.04

Rise +.25 70.00

Fall -.25 20.00

[Dames]

Just watched one 'economist' on Bloomberg saying that a member or two may actually start calling for a hike this month or next because of inflation.

D

[Warwickshire Lad]

Just watched one 'economist' on Bloomberg saying that a member or two may actually start calling for a hike this month or next because of inflation.

I still wouldn't expect anything other than a hold this month. I think the BoE will let inflation go to 3% before doing anything to hike rates.

I'm not optimistic that the MPC will actually have the guts to raise IRs to control inflation. A load of excuses will probably be spouted first about things that are "distorting" the CPI.

[Guest pioneer31]

If you want unbounded wealth inequality then vote Tory next time.

You've indicated to me why particular govts get elected.

Instead of opening your eyes and analysing what this govt is actually doing to the country, you are parroting old cliches about Labour being 'socialists' and Tories creating wealth inequality - probably passed down by your parents who themselves voted Labour - and they voted Labour because their parents did.

As for wealth inequality......What do you make of a nation where half of its occupants are homeowners/BTL's and are MEW'ing like there's no tomorrow whilst the other half are living in s***holes paying some landlord's mortgage, paying thousands back in student loans and putting their life on hold for 10 yrs until they can afford their own place?

Go and ask Gordon Brown if he is a socialist. He will say yes. If they were not, they wouldn't be in the Labour Party.

I caught a man the other night in my front room trying to rifle through my drawers.

"Are you a burglar?" I asked

"No, absolutely not" he replied.

Well that's cleared that one up.

[libitina]

Hold.

[Limpet]

They will definately be holding them,

As for interest rates who knows!

Limpet

[apom]

Ditto. And another cut in Q1 next year, possibly another two as growth slows even further and inflation dips back.

It can't be stopped..

Lower interst rates might take the pressure of the poor bu**ers struggling at the moment.. but the fear is that more borrowing may occur..

The house prices need to come down... if people enter into the current pricing structures in enough numbers to sustain the market then it would only go to vastly increase the current debt crisis.

so if interest rates could help people and the economy.. then lower them.

but house prices either need to come down..

Or they can stay high.. and vastly fewer people can buy them..

Whatever happens the debt levels must not increase.

and houses at current prices will cause hideous and catastrophic levels of debt in the country if they remain the same.

[FaTB]

The problem is the rich are getting richer, maybe even faster. The poor are being held constant and the middle is being pulled down to being poor.

You hit the nail on the head !!

[vinny]

You hit the nail on the head !!

Ditto with bells on.

[libitina]

They will definately be holding them,

As for interest rates who knows!

Limpet

Hehehehe...!

[Jason]

Surprise surprise, they have been held!