Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
mrpleasant

O, Hapi Day

Recommended Posts

Some bearish comments. The best part of this year has been and gone. All downhill from here.

June HAPI pdf

The market is in serious trouble. Not really a spring bounce, but a market surviving on desperately low volumes. In other words a market with no buyers and it looks set to crash. Q3/Q4 will unwind the bounce plus a bit more besides. QE is spent, the public sector cuts will begin to bite and 90 billion of mortgage lending is supporting UK negative equity loans. The greater fool to support this ponzi doesn't exist, he has had due warning anyway with the 25% real correctiion since 2007.

We only need to look to the US, Case/Shiller is down -4.2% for Q1 and we are lagging their curve by about six months.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the seasonal spring increase ended in May!? That doesn't look good :) looking at their chart the spring bounce normally gives the yearly high before the summer lull and a slight autumn pick then down for winter.

I wonder if rightmove will agree when it's released Monday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The highlight of this report is often the quote on the front page. This month's:

“The big risk is that U.K. real estate suffers a dramatic collapse. The second big risk is that it takes decades to return to normality, much as has happened in Japan.,” Alen Mattich, writing for the Wall Street Journal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The highlight of this report is often the quote on the front page. This month's:

“The big risk is that U.K. real estate suffers a dramatic collapse. The second big risk is that it takes decades to return to normality, much as has happened in Japan.,” Alen Mattich, writing for the Wall Street Journal.

I love these reports :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wylie Coyote has run off the edge of the cliff.

Or in the reports words

"Homebuyers with cash or sizeable deposits appear to be increasingly limited in number"

This is the mechanism that has been keeping Wylie in mid air till he started looking down.

For me the decline cash buyers is key in facilitating the next leg down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Essentially, the market is flat, while inflation (even wage inflation) is growing.

This is the stated aim of the Condem govt.

Do we really still think this is just down to luck?

PS, is there an Acadametrix thread? I can't see it.

Edited by Timm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Essentially, the market is flat, while inflation (even wage inflation) is growing.

This is the stated aim of the Condem govt.

Do we really still think this is just down to luck?

PS, is there an Acadametrix thread? I can't see it.

No there wasn't thankfully. It was out Friday. their guess was 0.3% I think didn't bother reading the report as it's bull shit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No there wasn't thankfully. It was out Friday. their guess was 0.3% I think didn't bother reading the report as it's bull shit.

:D

0.3% was last months guess. This month, they wondered if prices might have gone up £20.

No, really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The highlight of this report is often the quote on the front page. This month's:

“The big risk is that U.K. real estate suffers a dramatic collapse. The second big risk is that it takes decades to return to normality, much as has happened in Japan.,” Alen Mattich, writing for the Wall Street Journal.

bingo

deflation cometh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Or in the reports words

"Homebuyers with cash or sizeable deposits appear to be increasingly limited in number"

This is the mechanism that has been keeping Wylie in mid air till he started looking down.

For me the decline cash buyers is key in facilitating the next leg down.

I'm inclined to agree; and there are two factors at play 1) The number of cash buyers and 2) Sentiment amongst them. Whilst nobody knows how many there are or how sentiment will change, we do know that they are finite in their numbers and as the report suggests, I think they are close to being exhausted.

Essentially, the market is flat, while inflation (even wage inflation) is growing.

This is the stated aim of the Condem govt.

Do we really still think this is just down to luck?

I think you are crediting them with far more competence than they deserve. Falls in selling prices, according to the LR, are not disimilar to those we saw in early 2008 albeit with a slight uptick recently (caused IMO by the deadline for the £1m+ stamp duty increase) - around 6 out of the last 8 months have shown falls.

You write some sensible posts so I'm suprised that you can't see how the government's line is precisely what you'd expect it to be (ie we don't want rises or falls) in that it's not particularly unappealing to any segment of the voting public.

As an aside, anyone else notice how businesses (e.g. Home.co.uk, Rightmove) relying on volume rather than price are far more bearish - funny that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(...)

I think you are crediting them with far more competence than they deserve. Falls in selling prices, according to the LR, are not disimilar to those we saw in early 2008 albeit with a slight uptick recently (caused IMO by the deadline for the £1m+ stamp duty increase) - around 6 out of the last 8 months have shown falls.

You write some sensible posts so I'm suprised that you can't see how the government's line is precisely what you'd expect it to be (ie we don't want rises or falls) in that it's not particularly unappealing to any segment of the voting public.

(...)

Looking at the Eton rifles doing their stern, furrowed brow posing for camera it's hard to believe that they have successfully charted a safe course to harbour and correctly calculated that a rising tide will take us safely over the rocks we seem to be heading for.

But we should at least consider the possibility that a competent pilot has been quietly shipped on board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The highlight of this report is often the quote on the front page. This month's:

"The big risk is that U.K. real estate suffers a dramatic collapse. The second big risk is that it takes decades to return to normality, much as has happened in Japan.," Alen Mattich, writing for the Wall Street Journal.

I`ll have a Dramatic Collapse please, with sugar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an aside, anyone else notice how businesses (e.g. Home.co.uk, Rightmove) relying on volume rather than price are far more bearish - funny that.

That, may I say, is a very interesting point that does seem to ring true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.