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Cpi & Rpi Figures Due Tomorrow - Any Predictions?


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My prediction, CPI 4.4% (-0.1%) and RPI down to 5.0% (-0.2%). I'm always wrong, perhaps because I don't use any scientific method here, just a ready reckoning based on fuel and butter prices!

Forex factory prediction appears to be based on last years MoM rise. If this is too low (which I suspect it will be), then RPI could go up to near 6%. I'm going for 5.5%.

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With food, fuel and energy costs spiralling, I can't see inflation being any lower.

CPI 4.6%

RPI 5.5%

All unexpected and temporary, of course.

Unfortunately, food & fuel only make up about 0.4% of the total basket.

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Do you have a link to the definition of the basket? Thanks

FreeTrader posted an excellent summary a few months ago. Unfortunately I've lost the bookmark to a dead laptop. Worth digging up.

Management of perception economics would suggest TPTB will continue with the 'modest attenuation of an uncomfortably high rate' narrative. My guess is that both headline rates will come off by 0.1% or so.

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Chep have just announced that they are increasing the cost of their pallets by 5% (them's the blue ones that everyone including the retailers use). Everyone's distribution costs have just gone up, so nothing is getting cheaper.

RPI 5.2%

CPI 4.4%

Really? I'll have to have a chat with our distribution guys. Did the info come from Chep?

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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