Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Time To Reflect?


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 461
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

<br />Who advises the Govt? The vested interests, MP's defer their critical thinking too ala Milgram or the MP's have their own greed <br /><br />played with a nice job as a consultant at the end of their term in office. Another flaw in representative democracy.

Ah ha - been thinking about this.

They just lurve giving away taxpayer cash diverted from UK poor to their pet projects to grandiose themselves.

There should be a Parliamentary law that anyone who qualifies for their gold-plated index-linked Parliament pension should have to do 3 years working home or abroad with volunteer schemes working with poor & destitute.

Then can then be personally accountable for the allocation of UK taxpayer Charity Cash and enjoy their successes!

Edited by erranta
Link to post
Share on other sites

+ 1 for greed and it's celebration. Only a spiritual change can drag us out of this.

Quite handy then that the latest revelation comes with attached functional system of banking regulation. Short selling? Nah, banned for 1400 years. Derivatives? Not as you know it jim.

http://www.financialriskstoday.com/islamic_basel.php

Just a pity TPTB don't want you to look favourably on it and have instilled all sorts of knee jerk responses to any mention of Sharia.

Link to post
Share on other sites

the form of natural constructs - life - is indeed fractal (which is why biological variables scale with a quarter-power law rather than a third power law one might naively expect given that life lives in 3 dimensions). However the progression and change of forms is not IMO governed by the same mathematics.

If you look at the progression of say, real wages, or perhaps GDP or maybe total energy usage over let us say 20,000 years, there is no obvious fractal pattern to be seen. No doubt you can if you zoom right in, but that's not to say everything is fractal, fractal perturbations can quite happily ride on top of underlying trends.

I also cannot observe a fractal aspect to the currently existing forms of life versus what used to exist, or cultural progression for example. I see a tall tree, of which most of the branches are dead.

Evolution, all life, seeks monoculture.

I haven't a scooby what any of that meant.

And to think I came on to this forum going to figure out how I'll afford a 3 bed semi-d!

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Steve Keen analysis rings a lot of bells but it occurs to me that we're loosing sight of the root cause of the crisis (no not London according to Tim Geithner).

Am I alone in thinking that the majority of todays woes fall squarely on the shoulders of the Federal Reserve and in particular Greenspan's policy of holding base interest rates at low (negative in real terms).

It seemed obvious to me in 2002 that this was going to lead to a global financial disaster so you can be assured they knew too!

I agree. Greenspan and the Fed were the main responsible, plus Gordon Brown here in Britain, of course. Both inflated credit/debt bubbles.

Apparently I've mentioned these two morons and/or [email protected] "a few times" here: http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&safe=off&rlz=1B3GGLL_en___GB407&q=site%3Awww.housepricecrash.co.uk+%22tired+of+waiting%22+greenspan+brown&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

Link to post
Share on other sites

hemnes-mirror__75903_PE195130_S4.jpg

You and your greed are to blame. Simple answer.

Yes, that as well. The politicians were under pressure from voters to keep the bubbling party going.

Then again, all politicians are, in all countries, all the time. Political systems in well governed countries are supposed to curb these types of "natural" negative tendencies, in this case, with independent central banks. The ECB worked better than the FED in this respect. Why? And before the Euro, the DM v the Lira were good examples of good v bad governance. Though, to be fair with the BoE, Brown did tamper with the inflation index in Dec 2003 (CPI v RPI), blocking the BoE from raising the base rate in 2004.

So the question becomes: Why the American and British political economy failed so miserably in this past decade? Why the FED and the BoE did such a bad job? Including lack of mortgage market regulation - the main source of credit/debt. Why the populations/media and the system's "checks and balances" didn't kick in? Why this political failure, this collective, immature, short termism???

Link to post
Share on other sites

The OP is right that the crunch was entirely the fault of central bankers for not leaning against the wind around 2002 , when asset inflation became apparent. The problem was targetting inflation and pretending asset bubbles were not part of their remit.

The trouble is it is one rule for boom and one rule for bust. The chimps controlling interest rates on both sides of the pond, but particularly the retards on the MPC, have seen fit to abandon the 2% CPI target during this bust, but the c**ts criminally did nothing around 2002. Still waiting for an apology you utter ***** King. I think Greenspan is a little more contrite.

Edited by crashmonitor
Link to post
Share on other sites

Because private banks add zero value to society, and maybe the deposed can go pick turnips or learn to do something useful.

Like somebody else mentioned on here, if they can still run at 100% with 15,000 less employees, what the hell were they doing in the first place.

Working for HBOS before they got merged, presumably.

Link to post
Share on other sites

hemnes-mirror__75903_PE195130_S4.jpg

You and your greed are to blame. Simple answer.

No. You're wrong. The simple answer is dishonesty is the fundamental cause........ greed is an effect.

When they start chucking out freshly printed twenty pounds notes from helicopters........THEN..... there is greed to grab as many as possible. more than the next man.

Edited by nixy
Link to post
Share on other sites

The cause of the crisis is violence and what being violent does to price signals.

A price signal (as I am sure all of us economics geeks are aware) is the point at which refusal to trade becomes acceptance of trade. This gives people the most accurate possible signal about what to produce, who for, where and when.

However, we have an agency in society (the state) which when it hears the word no, ignores it and then threatens to kill whoever has refused. Alright, there are many arguments for having a state and we shall leave those aside for now, but what is absolutely unavoidable is the corruption to the price signal having a state entails no matter how socially required a state happens to be. Especially a state which has openly seized and controls the money supply.

Add to this the corruption of the price signals caused by the fact of fractional/zero reserve banking and it's other attendant frauds (yes, even if you make them legal the price signals distortion occurs) and there is a nice recipe for a completely ******ed market.

Feel free to chuck in a deliberately infantilised population with no financial literacy, the array of new psychological techniques used upon said population and so on and so forth for a heady brew of "we are ******ed."

Edited by Injin
Link to post
Share on other sites

The cause of the crisis is violence and what being violent does to price signals.

A price signal (as I am sure all of us economics geeks are aware) is the point at which refusal to trade becomes acceptance of trade. This gives people the most accurate possible signal about what to produce, who for, where and when.

However, we have an agency in society (the state) which when it hears the word no, ignores it and then threatens to kill whoever has refused. Alright, there are many arguments for having a state and we shall leave those aside for now, but what is absolutely unavoidable is the corruption to the price signal having a state entails no matter how socially required a state happens to be. Especially a state which has openly seized and controls the money supply.

Add to this the corruption of the price signals caused by the fact of fractional/zero reserve banking and it's other attendant frauds (yes, even if you make them legal the price signals distortion occurs) and there is a nice recipe for a completely ******ed market.

Feel free to chuck in a deliberately infantilised population with no financial literacy, the array of new psychological techniques used upon said population and so on and so forth for a heady brew of "we are ******ed."

No. You're wrong. The simple answer is dishonesty is the fundamental cause........ greed violence is an effect.

Link to post
Share on other sites

No. You're wrong. The simple answer is dishonesty is the fundamental cause........ greed violence is an effect.

I'd agree the ultimate cause is the lies of parents to their children about virtue, which leads to the acceptance of violence as a tool to solve problems.

Link to post
Share on other sites
However, we have an agency in society (the state) which when it hears the word no, ignores it and then threatens to kill whoever has refused.

The tragedy of the commons is a well know example. Every farmer has an incentive to graze the common land bare. The same situation exists now with the roads. Everyone gains from a road system yet nobody has an incentive to maintain it. Without threats, the commons will be destroyed as each man acts in his own interest. Many of the deregulation calls are made by those best able to exploit the commons anticipating grabbing a larger share than the others.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The tragedy of the commons is a well know example. Every farmer has an incentive to graze the common land bare. The same situation exists now with the roads. Everyone gains from a road system yet nobody has an incentive to maintain it. Without threats, the commons will be destroyed as each man acts in his own interest. Many of the deregulation calls are made by those best able to exploit the commons anticipating grabbing a larger share than the others.

While this may (or may not) be true - the fact of the violence does distort the price signals needed for the marketplace.

This corruption of signal will not change no matter how otherwise desirable having a state is.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Are you not falling into the trap of simply looking at the information that is readily available and drawing on conclusions that are symptoms not causations.

well yes, the pri/pub debt ratio is a symptom not a cause. The generalised cause of the cycle is capital accumulation coupled with private sector hubris (e.g. we don't need no steenking commie regulations).

However, that cycle is relatively modern I would say, since the late 19th century.

Prior to that its just pure mercantilism/imperialism.

But I will stick with my claim that hyperinflations are not a feature of high private versus public debt ratio.

Link to post
Share on other sites

well yes, the pri/pub debt ratio is a symptom not a cause. The generalised cause of the cycle is capital accumulation coupled with private sector hubris (e.g. we don't need no steenking commie regulations).

However, that cycle is relatively modern I would say, since the late 19th century.

Prior to that its just pure mercantilism/imperialism.

But I will stick with my claim that hyperinflations are not a feature of high private versus public debt ratio.

They are a feature of states wanting to pay their bills but not being able to get tax revenue.

(Populations went up exponentially from the time when they started to back the equally exponentially rising currency I can't help but notice.)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite. Back to my original point about the balance between consumption and investment. I am drawn back to that prophetic video on Gatt with the 'nutter' James Goldsmith where he refers to the 'historic balance' between capital and wages of about 60:40 if I recall correctly.

It seems to me that we have had a tremendous hiatus with globalisation whereby firstly the wages of the new workers have acted as a massive deflationary black hole at the heart of the world economy and that that share between capital and labour has indeed been broken leading to huge profits and ongoing massive overinvestment (maybe not here but looking at places like Shanghai). So not only do we have the issue of these very low wages but also increasingly huge over capacity going forward.

So coming back to the OP, I do believe the issue has basically been about globalisation and how that has impacted on wages, financial flows, balance between rich and poor and capital formation and accumulation. I'm waiting for Sceppie to cement his reputation to come up with a unifying equation the solves all this.

img3779.png

=42

Link to post
Share on other sites

So coming back to the OP, I do believe the issue has basically been about globalisation and how that has impacted on wages, financial flows, balance between rich and poor and capital formation and accumulation. I'm waiting for Sceppie to cement his reputation to come up with a unifying equation the solves all this.

I'll watch the vid later. As for unifying equations, you're just extracting the pish from me a bit here I think :)

Anyway,

I think people are confused between TWO overlaid pure economic trends. One is as you say the globalisation phenomenon, which is of course mixed up with technology, and problems of various sectors escaping the tax net, politics, all mixed with skewed demographics and interest rate differentials. This globalisation/multicorp/mercantilist phenomena is the younger of the two trends and has only really got going in the last few decades. Fundamentally though this is just a standard case of Marxian capital accumulation.

The second trend, which is longer running is the "sublimation of money" impulse, which IMO is the primary cause of the post-war exponential in total debt and is what I am talking about when I talk about "peak debt" being an inevitable equilibrium of modern economies.

These two have separate drivers and their being intertwined has made it so difficult to unpick the causes and outcomes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

(...) the acceptance of violence as a tool to solve problems.

Without the state to protect you, you would have to defend yourself.

Though alone you wouldn't be a match for a gang or robbers. But you could talk to your neighbours, and help each other.

A non-aggression pact with the neighbouring estate would be helpful too. And some co-ordination may prove vital also.

Similar thing re. the neighbouring town.

And let's chose all these leaderships democratically.

Keep going, as necessity dictates, a few years late = modern state.

Oops! :unsure:

Injin, you can wish physical force away as much as you can wish gravity away. The only choice is between delegating it to a democratic state, or let it run wild, law of the jungle.

See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legitimate_use_of_force

Only two options there. But the 2nd will, in time, take to the 1st. History says so too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Without the state to protect you, you would have to defend yourself.

Though alone you wouldn't be a match for a gang or robbers. But you could talk to your neighbours, and help each other.

A non-aggression pact with the neighbouring estate would be helpful too. And some co-ordination may prove vital also.

Similar thing re. the neighbouring town.

And let's chose all these leaderships democratically.

Keep going, as necessity dictates, a few years late = modern state.

Oops! :unsure:

Injin, you can wish physical force away as much as you can wish gravity away. The only choice is between delegating it to a democratic state, or let it run wild, law of the jungle.

See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legitimate_use_of_force

Only two options there. But the 2nd will, in time, take to the 1st. History says so too.

That's a fine socio-political argument, but the use of violence still corrupts the price signals and ******s the economy.

You can't avoid this fact with arguments about neccessity of using violence, even if they are valid.

Edited by Injin
Link to post
Share on other sites

That's a fine socio-political argument, but the use of violence still corrupts the price signals and ******s the economy.

You can't avoid this fact with arguments about neccessity of using violence, even if they are valid.

Thank you.

And the use of force does not have to "corrupt the price signals and ******s the economy". Economic mismanagement does that.

Take the modern "Highlands Clearance" for instance, our planning system blockage. Sure, the police force will forcibly remove you/we if we try to build a house in our own land but without planning permit. Yes, the threat of violence does stop us from building it, but this problem only occurs because we have the planning blockage. It would be perfectly possible, and it does happen in many other countries, to have a more efficient planning system, less blocked.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If inflation has been seen as the route to get around 'sticky wages' since after the second world war

Inflation alone is not sufficient, the main plank of this approach is based on the 80's dismantlement of labour's collective bargaining institutions.

then has 'peak debt' or 'peak unaffordability' not been arrived at because of that failure to address the proper balance between labour and capital over the long term?

It seems to me that structurally the process of globalisation and the process of introduction of women into the workforce are both factors which are supportive of increased returns to capital at least for a time, so I'm not sure to what degree that this reality could actually have been 'suppressed' any more than one could suppress rising returns to labour in cases where a labour shortage develops.

As long as the fundamental factors supporting increased returns to capital are in place then one would expect an expansion in inequality to be the result (and be sustainable in the sense of the trend not breaking down), but the fly in the ointment here is that globally, inequality has been falling for decades.

Obviously if things are "unaffordable" for the majority of the global population the trend must reverse but declining global inequality suggests that things have been getting more affordable for the average global worker, not less. So for the global elite (including EM elite) things have got much more affordable. For EM workers, things have got quite a bit more affordable. For the rest of us, more expensive.

However the significant returns to the top few % are IMO mostly linked to corporate tax evasion. The 'sublimation of money' trend has mainly temporarily enriched bankers and the boomer generation but these gains will be given back over the next few decades, and I don't think the 'peak debt' trend in and of itself necessarily implies impoverishment of anybody or any particular sector.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you.

And the use of force does not have to "corrupt the price signals and ******s the economy". Economic mismanagement does that.

Nope - a price signal is a signal of refusal and acceptance. Any violence for any reason whatsoever by anyone at all disturbs that signal.

Doesn't matter how needed for political or other reasons that violence is, it will mess up the signal. This is a fact, unavoidable fact.

Take the modern "Highlands Clearance" for instance, our planning system blockage. Sure, the police force will forcibly remove you/we if we try to build a house in our own land but without planning permit. Yes, the threat of violence does stop us from building it, but this problem only occurs because we have the planning blockage. It would be perfectly possible, and it does happen in many other countries, to have a more efficient planning system, less blocked.

Sorry mate, but the idea of land ownership itself is ********, completely non empirical. By default all humans can wander anywhere they fancy and this can only be prevented. The only way to fix it from a market point of view is to not have any land ownership at all.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.