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The Masked Tulip

Black Week - Probably Wed/thurs

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Chinese CPI figures are out on Wednesday which, if it shows a further slowing Chinese economy, might be enough to bring the markets down. The US markets have wobbled for the past 10 days and this could be the week.

Some might decide to bail before Wed, but there are a number of reports, both national and regional, due in the US next week that might be enough in themselves to trigger a flight from US stocks.

I am tempted to say Monday but it may well be Wed/Thurs that the panic begins.

Of course, China's figures may come back showing booming spending and all is well in the World - but I suspect not.

TMT in 'I know nuthink' mode. :unsure:

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You beat me to it. I was going to post a black Monday prediction tomorrow afternoon.

Much the same reasons. China slowing and the realisation that US debts are un payable.

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So it will more than likely be a good week for stocks.

Although surely at some point someone will call it right?

About time you altered your sig in light of Mervs award !!

Edited by uptherebels

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You beat me to it. I was going to post a black Monday prediction tomorrow afternoon.

Much the same reasons. China slowing and the realisation that US debts are un payable.

I almost posted a thread today predicting that you would post a Black Monday prediction tomorrow :blink:

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What do you expect to see in chinese cpi that would indicate a slowing economy?

Chinese exports - we are broke so we buy less from China. Tat, junk electornic goods, clothes, you name it, call it what you wish. Exports basically.

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Would you be able to foretell our export performance if I gave you a cpi number?

EDIT: Don't mean to be rude but are you confusing with the pmi number?

I could bluff at this point... or I could just point out that I read numerous articles over the past 24 hours pointing to this :rolleyes:

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The export number was released Friday and people said it meant global demand was weak.

Nah, the Chinese CPI is out on Wed. Odd really, there appears to be fear that China internally is over-heating re inflation and hence will result in inflation, money-tightening, further IR rises.

But at the same time Chinese exports to the World are grinding to a halt.

What happens when both coincide?

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:)

TMT - think ham already made my point, but on the cpi issue itself - I agree they're not about to start reversing the rate hikes, but as a number it's hard to guage as indication of slowing/accelerating. e.g. some of the pressure from droughts/effects on hydropower production, resulting increase in electricity tariffs could begin to abate as it started raining torrentially in the affected region last week. Obvious lag effect on energy costs/other imports, but core stuff make up a larger proportion than ours etc etc. But does any future decrease in CPI rate as a result tell us much about whether the broader economy's slowing? There are a lot of factors in chinese cpi.

Did I also mention that I have a feeling in my water?

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I'm confused. Is someone calling it or not?

Yes, I have called it.

I think, using a combination of financial data, charts, crystals, the forthcoming lunar eclipse this week, the left-over tea leaves at the bottom of my cup and the funny feeling that I have in my water, that there will be a sizeable correction on the US markets this week.

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Yes, I have called it.

I think, using a combination of financial data, charts, crystals, the forthcoming lunar eclipse this week, the left-over tea leaves at the bottom of my cup and the funny feeling that I have in my water, that there will be a sizeable correction on the US markets this week.

Does this mean that I can't call it too? Does it have to be one person at a time?

Mine was more a combination of tarot cards and the forecast good weather in many parts of the world.

Oh and unservicable US debt and the continued slowing of china.

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Does this mean that I can't call it too? Does it have to be one person at a time?

Mine was more a combination of tarot cards and the forecast good weather in many parts of the world.

Oh and unservicable US debt and the continued slowing of china.

Put it this way - when I am right then you all can bask in the glory radiating from my arrogance... when I am wrong, it was all your fault.... :P

Joking aside, I do seriously think that we will see a sizeable down-turn in the DOW this week, taking down all other markets, causing panic.

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Does this mean that I can't call it too? Does it have to be one person at a time?

Mine was more a combination of tarot cards and the forecast good weather in many parts of the world.

Oh and unservicable US debt and the continued slowing of china.

I was also hoping to call it too! There's that small matter of the Global Bank's QE2 drying up on June 22nd. The selling started around a month ago (with the smart money getting out) and accelerated last week. Dow now sub 12000. Reckon there will be a few people willing to buy the last dip or two so we might get a little rally on Monday. Benny Boy needs to see the market in free fall before he can justifiably call for QE3 (which is all but certain).

And apparently my girlfriend's mum says there is a lunar eclipse on Tuesday.

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I was also hoping to call it too! There's that small matter of the Global Bank's QE2 drying up on June 22nd. The selling started around a month ago (with the smart money getting out) and accelerated last week. Dow now sub 12000. Reckon there will be a few people willing to buy the last dip or two so we might get a little rally on Monday. Benny Boy needs to see the market in free fall before he can justifiably call for QE3 (which is all but certain).

And apparently my girlfriend's mum says there is a lunar eclipse on Tuesday.

Yes, do not underestimate Tuesday's lunar eclipse.

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