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Interest Rates Could Stay Low For 3 Years

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My data comes from a considerably smaller sample than that. That is very supprising (so supprising I question it), is everyone mental? Why would you be on a tracker now instead of a as long as possible fixed rate?

because my £80,000 mortgage only incurs less than £50 a month in interest. 0.17% above base rates

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100% certain and guaranteed.

Merv cannot and will not hike because everything hangs on house prices. And I do mean EVERYTHING.

One hike and the market will go into a catstrophic freefall and there is no way Sir Merv is going to allow that to happen. he has done the right thing with the shit he has been given by Brown to work with.

Remember Merv called it a few years ago: " house prices are a matter of opinion but debt is real."

Pity Gordon didn't listen.

How else could this lot have persuaded Nissan and BMW to invest £700m in long term new model development projects? Low interest + weak pound + cheap labour = massive exports.

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If interest rates stay low we can expect to see

  • a continuing drop in the purchasing power of the pound

  • Strong price inflation with low wage inflation

  • People's standard of living steadily falling

  • Foreign investors buying our housing stock; hopefully starting businesses too

  • A continuing rise in the purchasing power of gold over sterling.

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Couldn't headlines like this backfire?

Instead of rushing to 'get on the ladder' whilst rates are low (I know, I know, but lots of buyers think like that), this takes away that pressure, reducing demand. And in the meantime low IRs and inflation do their work eroding ability to service mortgages and making deposits harder to save.

I think this is what they call unintended consequences.

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The Daily Express continues its transparent cheerleading over house prices:


Only a fool would believe the Daily Express UCtFQsoK.gif



Seen like that it is amazing how they get away with this shit all the time. I mean 'HOORAY! HOUSING MARKET ROCKETS'. WTF?!

Edited by General Congreve
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I can only imagine what the front cover of the Daily Express would look like if you were the Editor. :lol:


True. The significant difference being that if I'd been writing headlines for the last few years along the lines of:


I'd have been right ;)

And I'd have made the public a lot of money, not saddled them with loads of unpayable debt! I'd be a national ******ing hero B)

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How else could this lot have persuaded Nissan and BMW to invest £700m in long term new model development projects? Low interest + weak pound + cheap labour = massive exports.

you and c-t - nicely put

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Whilst I agree with your conclusion I don't agree with your contention that that GBP will continue to lose purchasing power because of low interest rates.

It may well do if there is an increase in the money supply, that's inflation; but I don't think it will fall because of a low interest rate. Investors will obviously seek the highest return on their capital but if higher interest rates are available elsewhere they may carry a higher risk. Interest rates in India for example are much higher than the UK, but their inflation rate is also greater and negates the return.

For all the problems in the UK we are politically stable and a low investment risk.

I'm mad me, I've got 90% of my money in Yen.

All I know is that the yen has gained about 4% against the Gbp over the past 3 month, that's quite something isn't it, to suffer a massive earthquake and Fukushima meltdown but have your currency rise shows the underlying strength of the Jap economy. Of course it was said that trillions of Yen would flood back for re-construction but surely any money returning is already in the bank.

If interest rates remain low here (and there) I'd expect to see the Yen rise by 10% or more per year.

And finally, please don't try this at home.

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mod edit - unnecessary remark removed



I'm not sure which rates they are referrring to? Presumably those on the low margin life trackers?

SVR's are up in the 4.99%. Fixed rates are falling but that just indicates how poor the economic prospects are.

And then there are those 'mortgage prisoners' whe who are stuck on the deals unable to move or re-mortgage.

Edited by Ash4781
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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