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cock-eyed octopus

Yo'u're Not Going To Like This

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North London flat, just exchanged at 64% above 2006 price paid.

Bonkers, agin nature, preposterous, but unfortunately true.

I post this as a warning to all those who like to make sweeping generalisations about what house prices are doing. The market is extremely fragmented, has been for a while & is getting worse. Hanging on in the sure & certain knowledge that prices will collapse is fine, it's just that predicting the timing is very tricky. For any prediction to be useful, the timescales matter.

I'd guess that, round my way, prices generally haven't gone anywhere much. But I'll bet that there's a fair difference in how individual houses have performed.

And, as much as debt is real, so is profit realised.

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North London flat, just exchanged at 64% above 2006 price paid.

Bonkers, agin nature, preposterous, but unfortunately true.

I post this as a warning to all those who like to make sweeping generalisations about what house prices are doing. The market is extremely fragmented, has been for a while & is getting worse. Hanging on in the sure & certain knowledge that prices will collapse is fine, it's just that predicting the timing is very tricky. For any prediction to be useful, the timescales matter.

I'd guess that, round my way, prices generally haven't gone anywhere much. But I'll bet that there's a fair difference in how individual houses have performed.

And, as much as debt is real, so is profit realised.

that's London. If you'd said Hull I'd be worried.

(apologies to everyone who needs a crash in London)

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Doesn't matter though! As you still have somboey with an overpriced asset and probably uber debt to go with this asset. So the numbers are unchanged.

One sucker out one sucker in. Nowt has changed except sucker 1 has been bailed out. Sucker 2 is virtually sucker 1 in the bigger picture of things.

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Too vague to really say. The flat might have undergone complete refurbishment in the meantime, or someone knows there is Brinks Matt gold in the cellar.

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land registry shows that:

(1) london inflated by a ludicrous 25% between the start of 2006 and peak at the end of 2007; and

(2) london is now spot-on back at peak [in terms of price - the number of sales is half or less peak].

so it's hardly implausible that one individual pwoperdee, probably that went cheap in 2006 [e.g. was in bad condition?] would outfperform in 2011 [e.g. that's been done up loads and someone has overpaid?].

Edited by the flying pig

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Didn't hang around then. Just pulled pin from grenade, lobbed it and ran.

My post got moved to Anecdotal as I typed a reply. Seems odd when anecdotal evidence for a crash is allowed on the main board forever.

Anyway:

Sorry to be vague, but the vendor is VERY sensitive about privacy.

Less than £200 spent on it (I know, because I spent it).

I'm posting this because I find the assumed omniscience of some of the oracles on here irritates me. It's an uncertain world, & you need as much valid information as possible to arrive at your own conclusions - which may be wrong, but at least they're the most informed you can make.

Incidentally, a relation bought a flat in Westminster in, I think, 2004ish for £300k & sold it 2 years later for £450k. Used the balance for a big eff off house in the Midlands. Whether or not that was a good idea God alone knows.

Edited by cock-eyed octopus

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North London flat, just exchanged at 64% above 2006 price paid.

Bonkers, agin nature, preposterous, but unfortunately true.

I post this as a warning to all those who like to make sweeping generalisations about what house prices are doing. The market is extremely fragmented, has been for a while & is getting worse. Hanging on in the sure & certain knowledge that prices will collapse is fine, it's just that predicting the timing is very tricky. For any prediction to be useful, the timescales matter.

I'd guess that, round my way, prices generally haven't gone anywhere much. But I'll bet that there's a fair difference in how individual houses have performed.

And, as much as debt is real, so is profit realised.

You're quite correct; there isn't "a" market anyway, it's highly segmented by region, value, etc. Personally I can't really see a time when it all crashes because the government will always take inflation over asset collapse give that while the former is awful the latter crashes the whole thing.

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I live in Central London and the flats I am following in Rightmove etc are not selling for 64% over 2006 prices.

There is some kiteflying in my own small area but they are not selling at these prices even.

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Out of interest Flopsy, where do you follow in central London? I've lived in London W2 for many years and follow flats locally, especially in my own street and surrounding ones I know well. I am really dispirited by what I've seen in last 4 months here, flats are going for ABOVE 2007 peak, 2 beds especially crazy. It just seems madness. I suppose a great deal of it is due to foreign money. A couple of EAs I know locally and who do give me the time of day have said the lower end of the market is slower (studios) as people are struggling to raise funds via traditional routes, but mid-upper is boyant so much cash floating around.

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North London flat, just exchanged at 64% above 2006 price paid.

Bonkers, agin nature, preposterous, but unfortunately true.

I post this as a warning to all those who like to make sweeping generalisations about what house prices are doing. The market is extremely fragmented, has been for a while & is getting worse. Hanging on in the sure & certain knowledge that prices will collapse is fine, it's just that predicting the timing is very tricky. For any prediction to be useful, the timescales matter.

I'd guess that, round my way, prices generally haven't gone anywhere much. But I'll bet that there's a fair difference in how individual houses have performed.

And, as much as debt is real, so is profit realised.

Do i not like that, i tell you i would love it if we could beat them to that property, love it, theyve gone down in my estimation, threyve not exchanged on anything yet, id love it if we gazumped them

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Flats going for 15-20% more in central London se1 area from 2007 peak and selling. The shard effect and gentrification has paid off. Shad Thames has gone mad.

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Keegan.

Ah! The perm-ed One. Sorry, bit slow on the uptake there. This place gets more like the Pink'un every day.

Timing is everything. They'd taken a 20-25% drop on the previous (much cheaper) flat, so prices were troughing in their area (though nobody knew).

When they said they were moving I was concerned they would have dropped a bundle. When the valuation came in I could not begin to comprehend it. They sold at c.3% off top valuation.

They thought of renting, but the rents are as insane as the buying prices. I think this is the driving force. With a bit of equity now, it is much dheaper to buy than to rent.

God knows where it will all end. Well, we all know where, it's when....

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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