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2buyornot2buy

Anecdotal -Is Boi Reducing Its Uk Mortgage Book?

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I love reading MSE from time to time. I think is gives a good insight about what’s going on with the masses. There are the typical deluded sellers and plenty of “why won’t my house sell” style questions. The NI section has plenty of posters in denial and also the odd one speaking real sense (tara747 who posted here).

Anyway here’s one that popped up about BOI. Does this include the NI market? What sort of effect could this have with one of the local 4 seemingly pulling out of the mortgage market or are they only attracting new business under the Post office banner?

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=3285248

Also notice honestEA pops up over there the odd time.

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I love reading MSE from time to time. I think is gives a good insight about what’s going on with the masses. There are the typical deluded sellers and plenty of “why won’t my house sell” style questions. The NI section has plenty of posters in denial and also the odd one speaking real sense (tara747 who posted here).

Anyway here’s one that popped up about BOI. Does this include the NI market? What sort of effect could this have with one of the local 4 seemingly pulling out of the mortgage market or are they only attracting new business under the Post office banner?

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=3285248

Also notice honestEA pops up over there the odd time.

Some info I found online re BOI scaling back MTG operations and links to the BOI site detailing London & Country as a referral partner. It is no secret that the BOI are not in the healthiest position at the minute so it is prob easier for them to have a referral partner for MTG's that will give them an income stream for the referral rather than lending out money that they dont have. They are in the news today because of an issue with bondholders. All seems to be related to them trying to raise/free up captial.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/jan/09/bristol-west-mortgages-close

http://www.mortgage-free.co.uk/mortgagereview.htm

http://www.bankofirelandmortgages.co.uk/

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There are the typical deluded sellers and plenty of “why won’t my house sell” style questions. The NI section has plenty of posters in denial and also the odd one speaking real sense (tara747 who posted here).

Do you post yourself to put them right? ... I might pop over and have a look. I'm sure that plenty of those 'deluded' posters browse these forums but never post.

I would welcome the odd debate now and again and would genuinely be interested to hear the arguments for the higher asking prices (albeit I would be amazed if they made any sense)

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Must admit TinBin I haven't bothered posting myself. I've read a few comments from some of the bulls on there and it just gets to me. I respect others opinions but sometime the arrogance and stupidity from some of the posters is at another level. You'll get plenty of debate no doubt but I can't cope with the feeling of banging my head against a wall. Logic seems to fails these people.

One posted about how he build his house 3 years ago for X so even after 50% drops it should still be worth X + some. It's all denial.

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Why bother going with the Bank of Ireland anyway? Northern Bank are giving better rates with no arrangement fees, I dealt with them when I applied for my mortgage and I have to say they were brilliant as well.

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So that's where tara747 is hanging out now.

I would welcome the odd debate now and again and would genuinely be interested to hear the arguments for the higher asking prices (albeit I would be amazed if they made any sense)

The HPC Northern Ireland forum used to be a lot more active. Unfortunately, there were too many trolls and personal attacks on genuine HPC members. Having our own moderator has certainly made things a lot more civil, but also made it quieter. A price worth paying? I think so.

This site was/is an invaluable resource to help people see through all the 'vested interest' propaganda. The views of the regular posters here have been proved to be correct. However, people no longer need to come here to discuss the house price crash. It can now be openly discussed with all but the most deluded. Though I find that - while a lot of the sheeple are aware of the 50% drops - they believe we have reached 'the bottom' and that now is a good time to buy. :rolleyes: It is not even worth pointing out to them why they are wrong.

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So that's where tara747 is hanging out now.

The HPC Northern Ireland forum used to be a lot more active. Unfortunately, there were too many trolls and personal attacks on genuine HPC members. Having our own moderator has certainly made things a lot more civil, but also made it quieter. A price worth paying? I think so.

This site was/is an invaluable resource to help people see through all the 'vested interest' propaganda. The views of the regular posters here have been proved to be correct. However, people no longer need to come here to discuss the house price crash. It can now be openly discussed with all but the most deluded. Though I find that - while a lot of the sheeple are aware of the 50% drops - they believe we have reached 'the bottom' and that now is a good time to buy. :rolleyes: It is not even worth pointing out to them why they are wrong.

Couldn't agree more BB. I am constantly hearing "we've reached the bottom" or "Its never been a better time to buy". A friend who's a mortgage advisor even said "house prices are on the rise" I pointed out that the trend is down and interest rates can only go up form here. Seriously though - are people delusional? Where do they get these notions? Can someone please please please give me one single LOGICAL bull argument that house prices in NI are going to do anything but fall in the medium term?

The stupidity of these people is really starting to get to me.

Oh and Tara few rational voice over on the MSE NI forum.

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Couldn't agree more BB. I am constantly hearing "we've reached the bottom" or "Its never been a better time to buy". A friend who's a mortgage advisor even said "house prices are on the rise" I pointed out that the trend is down and interest rates can only go up form here. Seriously though - are people delusional? Where do they get these notions? Can someone please please please give me one single LOGICAL bull argument that house prices in NI are going to do anything but fall in the medium term?

The stupidity of these people is really starting to get to me.

Oh and Tara few rational voice over on the MSE NI forum.

This is what I would like to hear as well. A logical argument and not just dribble about affordability being better than it was during the peak.

It seems to be the official line adopted by EA's these days ... theres never been a better time to buy Well actually there has been ... although unfortunately I dont have a Dr Who time machine to go back 10-15 years.

We now have to try to educate a new generation who have never experienced anything other than ridiculously high prices that prices at 5/6 times your salary is not normal, nor affordable, all in the face of those with short term VI's preaching otherwise including irresponsible journalism and Government intervention to attempt to prop the housing market up high.

The propaganda wheel to sustain high prices only encourages deluded vendors to dig their heels in. I take some comfort that they are getting desperate enough to post topics such as .. why wont my house sell. This at least shows that desperation must be creaping in.

I fail to understand the logic however in todays asking prices ... from what I can see regardless of what is reported about todays 'market value' the asking prices continue to remain static.

What I have referred to in the past as a 'stalemate' between buyers and sellers now seems generous as a stalemate would suggest that there is room for movement if either party assessed the situation, from what I can see in my area it would seem as if vendors arnd EA's are on a different planet altogether. Who are these buyers that they expect to be targeting?

Nothing appears to be selling at all but yet no movement on asking prices. EA tricks appear to be increasing (editing houses on propertynews/property pal to get them up the list again) and all I can see is recycled listings over and over again.

Its all getting a little boring. If it keeps on this way perhaps there will be bigger falls than predicted to come.

Edited by tinbin

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I think we lose focus on just how massive the VI machine is here. We have a media that through various acquisitions now relies heavily on property advertising so needs property sales. We have large estate agents and IFAs that bought into the property boom (literally and figuratively) that have an interest in high prices. We have the boomers that need the money through inflated prices to keep them in the unrealistic life style they have grown accustomed too and preach to the younger generation that HPI is a good thing and an easy ways to riches. Then there’s the BTLers, it seems everyone and their granny bought a BTL because “it’s me pension”. CRAP. All utter CRAP. Then there’s the builders and developers who think they deserve the margins and to be bailed out by new buyers for there stupid borrowings and reckless landbanking. Don’t get me started on the professionals such as solicitors, accountants and surveyors. How much of the profits made from large conveyancing firms and small town rural solicitors can from the easy property sales in the last 10 years? A large chunk I’d guess. We really are up against it. But everything in the future is in our favour. It can’t go on. The hollow VI arguments are getting increasingly more desperate and ridiculous by the week. The ******** and semiliterate, pseudo-logical ramblings make no sense whatsoever.

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I think we lose focus on just how massive the VI machine is here. We have a media that through various acquisitions now relies heavily on property advertising so needs property sales. We have large estate agents and IFAs that bought into the property boom (literally and figuratively) that have an interest in high prices. We have the boomers that need the money through inflated prices to keep them in the unrealistic life style they have grown accustomed too and preach to the younger generation that HPI is a good thing and an easy ways to riches. Then there’s the BTLers, it seems everyone and their granny bought a BTL because “it’s me pension”. CRAP. All utter CRAP. Then there’s the builders and developers who think they deserve the margins and to be bailed out by new buyers for there stupid borrowings and reckless landbanking. Don’t get me started on the professionals such as solicitors, accountants and surveyors. How much of the profits made from large conveyancing firms and small town rural solicitors can from the easy property sales in the last 10 years? A large chunk I’d guess. We really are up against it. But everything in the future is in our favour. It can’t go on. The hollow VI arguments are getting increasingly more desperate and ridiculous by the week. The ******** and semiliterate, pseudo-logical ramblings make no sense whatsoever.

Settle Petal.

Like the swan on top of the water, there must be frantic paddling going on underneath, flat buying investors are squealing in the courts and developers are relentlessly toppling like dominos - small and large, cowboy and 'professional'. They'll know all about it as the public sector turns the taps off. Desperation is bound to have set in, Banks, EAs, solicitors, double glazing firms, furniture, DIY - all bets were on an upturn of the economy, house sales and prices after the 'blip'. Retail taking a hit also. No World Cup this year, flights surcharged, sterling weak, car sales poor. Negative economic news relentless.

It has taken some time but most now know that (upturn) was a fallacy. The truth is that a quarter point interest rate rise will put thousands of mortgage holders over the edge, banks are buying their own houses and holding them on the books at peak prices, and putting debtors on IO deals. House prices have further to fall. About 70% have to fall just to reach "market price". What interest rates can't do at the current artifical levels, petrol, heating oil, food and other cost of living increases will do - alongside wage freezes. Sammy Wilson had to beg NAMA for no NI firesale - and is rating vacant property.

Debt is no longer cheap - check credit card rates, personal loans even credit unions wobbling - and more importantly the appetite isn't there, no more MEWing and savings debased. Sentiment and confidence are fractured - we all know. The bluff can only fly in the face of the evidence for so long. Banks are valuing hard and lending hard - no more self certs.

Things started to move re price drops about mid August last year for a few that were keen to sell. That number (keen to sell) must be growing alongside those that have to sell. EAs must hope so, or they will go out of business.

An awful lot of people will have to rethink the whole scenario this autumn if they want to sell houses. This spring was a dud for sales. I suppose I'm outlining a fear/capitulation scenario but it will be more of a sudden realisition/acceptance and will last for another few years. At what velocity, I do not know - it could be surprisingly speedy if any other negative news is added to the mix, or even if there isn't, there's plenty to go round already. Autumn will be the most important 3 months for house prices in NI in the last couple of years IMO.

Confidence and sentiment (and inflation) are like the oil tanker - only stopping and turning after three miles. The VIs know that if this decline is not arrested anything can happen - even panic, as it did on the way up. You can't expect them to say "hang on for a few years". Like a cornered rat or a dying wasp, VIs are at their most deadly when they see the writing on the wall - watch and enjoy.

After the waffle, we are now embarking on 2 years of proper, in your face cuts. Never mind oil or interest rates. The mugs have filled their boots. Mum and Dad are tapped out and seething. Informed buyers are the new market.

Be patient.

Look at Localrascal's graphs pinned at the top.

Wait till you see the whites of their eyes.

As you were. (Deep breath, and relax)

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Settle Petal.

Like the swan on top of the water, there must be frantic paddling going on underneath, flat buying investors are squealing in the courts and developers are relentlessly toppling like dominos - small and large, cowboy and 'professional'. They'll know all about it as the public sector turns the taps off. Desperation is bound to have set in, Banks, EAs, solicitors, double glazing firms, furniture, DIY - all bets were on an upturn of the economy, house sales and prices after the 'blip'. Retail taking a hit also. No World Cup this year, flights surcharged, sterling weak, car sales poor. Negative economic news relentless.

It has taken some time but most now know that (upturn) was a fallacy. The truth is that a quarter point interest rate rise will put thousands of mortgage holders over the edge, banks are buying their own houses and holding them on the books at peak prices, and putting debtors on IO deals. House prices have further to fall. About 70% have to fall just to reach "market price". What interest rates can't do at the current artifical levels, petrol, heating oil, food and other cost of living increases will do - alongside wage freezes. Sammy Wilson had to beg NAMA for no NI firesale - and is rating vacant property.

Debt is no longer cheap - check credit card rates, personal loans even credit unions wobbling - and more importantly the appetite isn't there, no more MEWing and savings debased. Sentiment and confidence are fractured - we all know. The bluff can only fly in the face of the evidence for so long. Banks are valuing hard and lending hard - no more self certs.

Things started to move re price drops about mid August last year for a few that were keen to sell. That number (keen to sell) must be growing alongside those that have to sell. EAs must hope so, or they will go out of business.

An awful lot of people will have to rethink the whole scenario this autumn if they want to sell houses. This spring was a dud for sales. I suppose I'm outlining a fear/capitulation scenario but it will be more of a sudden realisition/acceptance and will last for another few years. At what velocity, I do not know - it could be surprisingly speedy if any other negative news is added to the mix, or even if there isn't, there's plenty to go round already. Autumn will be the most important 3 months for house prices in NI in the last couple of years IMO.

Confidence and sentiment (and inflation) are like the oil tanker - only stopping and turning after three miles. The VIs know that if this decline is not arrested anything can happen - even panic, as it did on the way up. You can't expect them to say "hang on for a few years". Like a cornered rat or a dying wasp, VIs are at their most deadly when they see the writing on the wall - watch and enjoy.

After the waffle, we are now embarking on 2 years of proper, in your face cuts. Never mind oil or interest rates. The mugs have filled their boots. Mum and Dad are tapped out and seething. Informed buyers are the new market.

Be patient.

Look at Localrascal's graphs pinned at the top.

Wait till you see the whites of their eyes.

As you were. (Deep breath, and relax)

Local rascal? - you taking the piss Shovelshite :rolleyes:

Edited by lolacarrascal

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Lolacarrascal, sorry - slight dyslexia moment. And its Lotofshite to my friends! ( shovel shite indeed :rolleyes: )

Try more red wine for the discosex! But I think you're right, we need to watch the sample size for the next UU report. I think they overplayed the increase from Q4 2010 into Q1 2011. If Q2 2011 disappoints, then this current stalemate situation could radically change in favour of the bears.

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House prices have further to fall. About 70% have to fall just to reach "market price".

This +1 ... whats keeping them!!

Debt is no longer cheap - check credit card rates, personal loans even credit unions wobbling

Things started to move re price drops about mid August last year for a few that were keen to sell. That number (keen to sell) must be growing alongside those that have to sell. EAs must hope so, or they will go out of business.

This doesnt stop EA's from listing new properties above current 'market value' though. Strange ... surely listing houses at a price that will sell as opposed to a price that wont makes more business sense. Where is the logic in this?

Realistic EA if you by chance read this ... maybe you could shed some light on this. Based on your experience of the market why is it that when the industry accepts that current market valuations are 50% down on peak prices do we still have EA's listing new properties well above this, and seemingly not encouraging exsiting listings to drop accordingly?? I just cant relate to this. It would suggest to me that it is a case of total denial.

An awful lot of people will have to rethink the whole scenario this autumn if they want to sell houses. This spring was a dud for sales. I suppose I'm outlining a fear/capitulation scenario but it will be more of a sudden realisition/acceptance and will last for another few years. At what velocity, I do not know - it could be surprisingly speedy if any other negative news is added to the mix, or even if there isn't, there's plenty to go round already. Autumn will be the most important 3 months for house prices in NI in the last couple of years IMO.

Confidence and sentiment (and inflation) are like the oil tanker - only stopping and turning after three miles. The VIs know that if this decline is not arrested anything can happen - even panic, as it did on the way up. You can't expect them to say "hang on for a few years". Like a cornered rat or a dying wasp, VIs are at their most deadly when they see the writing on the wall - watch and enjoy.

After the waffle, we are now embarking on 2 years of proper, in your face cuts. Never mind oil or interest rates. The mugs have filled their boots. Mum and Dad are tapped out and seething. Informed buyers are the new market.

I await with anticipation!

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This doesnt stop EA's from listing new properties above current 'market value' though. Strange ... surely listing houses at a price that will sell as opposed to a price that wont makes more business sense. Where is the logic in this?

Realistic EA if you by chance read this ... maybe you could shed some light on this. Based on your experience of the market why is it that when the industry accepts that current market valuations are 50% down on peak prices do we still have EA's listing new properties well above this, and seemingly not encouraging exsiting listings to drop accordingly?? I just cant relate to this. It would suggest to me that it is a case of total denial.

I await with anticipation!

I'm afraid that it is a simple case of denial for many EAs especially the old dogs who have been in the game for over 30 years. One very experienced EA told me the other day that if the banks started lending again his houses would sell. Completely impossible as every one is about 30% above true market value. He puts all this doom and gloom down to banks not releasing big mortgages to everyone who asks for one. He doesnt seem to understand that people wont pay over the odds for any property even if funds were available as there is massive supply and the wider economic conditions wont allow for people to become overstretched when buying a home like 4 years ago. This same fella is overvaluing all his houses but now and again he gets some mug to agree with him and choose his firm to sell their house. When he meets a vendor who shares his sense of denial then it is obvious that vendor will agree with his stupidly high valuation. I see some other EAs doing this aswell but with other motives namely overvaluing a property to get a listing fee and then telling the vendor to reduce the asking price after 6 months of no viewings. Some EAs will say anything to get a vendor to choose their firm knowing that they can manipulate then in future. I have lost a small number of listings against rival firms who overvalued while I gave hard facts and examples when giving my valuation.

It is a true sign of how hard times are if an EA would rather just get a small listing fee than tell the truth to get a house sold in the future. You can bet your life that once the house comes onto the market with one of these EAs there will be no effort put in to selling it as they will have moved on to getting the next listing. It doesnt worry me personally as we have got half a dozen properties on in the last week that are all at fair market value and highly sellable in my opinion so our business is booming while doing the right thing for vendors.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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