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Do You See What Others Can't?

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I found this site because I felt something was fundamentally wrong with house prices. I may be proved right or I may be proved wrong. But for the last few months I seem to wander from conversation to conversation with a conviction of a house price correction that no-one else in my circle seems to see. At first this used to bother me and I felt I must be wrong, that it couldn't possibly happen. Maybe I was being paranoid.

But the more I think about it the more convinced I am that it will happen. I can't say when or how far and fast although I do believe it has indeed started. It just feels to me that I can see something coming over the horizon that non-HPC people can't. I can't really explain it more than that other people have a pair of blinkers on or they may be looking in a different direction to me. Yet I seem to see these large headlights coming full steam over a hump backed bridge heading my way.

Do others feel this way?

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Yes. And people think it's doom-mongering and bleak. But it is something wonderful. A wind of change that will upset and change everything.

Amen to that brother. Goodbye bling - people will only be spending on essentials. Goodbye celebrity for celebrity's sake - nobody will have the easy credit to try and imitate them. Goodbye property porn - hello a place to live.

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Interesting post.

I think what most of us are really tuned into is the fact that EVERYTHING comes to an end. We are realistic and understand that even good things come to an end. Please note I am not stating rising house prices is a good thing!

As Durch points out, we are seen as doom mongers. A lot of these people don't like talking about death either and immediately change the subject. Try it sometime. We all die at some stage but people don't like talking about wills and stuff. It's the old head in the sand strategy.

NDL

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Guest growl
Yet I seem to see these large headlights coming full steam over a hump backed bridge heading my way.

Do others feel this way?

The jugernaught is heading my neighbours way but not mine. That's because I can see it and the driver.

I first saw the headlights just over two years ago. But I had called the hpc early. It was due for sure. But then we had a big distraction called the war, and we like to feel good don't we with low interest rates, so we go shopping to take away the bad news of the war and the interest rates let us, and the economy churns on.

That's the driver of the jugernaught...debt.

The jugernaught...HPC is going to run a great many people down.

You know this because you are not believing everything that the VI's say. So you have come here and found like minded people and probably read the blog.

Gradually the real information and not the twaddle fed by the VI's are becoming so real to you that now you are visualising it.

Now you know you are not nuts...because now, it is unfolding before your very eyes, and your freinds will look to you in the future for advise on finance and just about everything. Because although like me you may have called it early...you were right.

;)

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I could not have put this better myself. I have had all the same doubts and arguments like you. I just keep my mouth shut now and see if I am proved right. Then again I tipping the FTSE100 to be below 5000 before the end of the year so what do I know :P

-----------------------------------

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Guest growl
I could not have put this better myself. I have had all the same doubts and arguments like you. I just keep my mouth shut now and see if I am proved right. Then again I tipping the FTSE100 to be below 5000 before the end of the year so what do I know :P

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Now thats the one thing that I am not so sure about. Mainly because much of my instinct and knowlege is based on my own personel experience of the last HPC and following reccession. I didn't play the stock market then. But I do remember that (and have confirmed since) that it fell about two years before the HPC and then rose because people then took their money out of property and ploughed it into shares.

So I'm thinking that it will do the same...but now I'm wondering. Because this is now so big this bubble, and the debt is just unreal. This reminds me of something much worse. We have the oil prices going through the roof, and war and China.

Then we have people like Bubb with his graphs and sh i t.

Greenspan calling a reccession and Brown trying to get out of his job and into another.

There's too much going on...I'm thinking of getting rid of my shares after my winter holiday. Just to be on the safe side.

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I found this site because I felt something was fundamentally wrong with house prices. I may be proved right or I may be proved wrong. But for the last few months I seem to wander from conversation to conversation with a conviction of a house price correction that no-one else in my circle seems to see. At first this used to bother me and I felt I must be wrong, that it couldn't possibly happen. Maybe I was being paranoid.

But the more I think about it the more convinced I am that it will happen. I can't say when or how far and fast although I do believe it has indeed started. It just feels to me that I can see something coming over the horizon that non-HPC people can't. I can't really explain it more than that other people have a pair of blinkers on or they may be looking in a different direction to me. Yet I seem to see these large headlights coming full steam over a hump backed bridge heading my way.

Do others feel this way?

Yes mate its the denial phase, impossible to really get it across to someone who is in denial.

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It’s also obsessive and secretive, and certainly not the sort of thing you can admit to in public without appearing like one of those ‘end of the world’ doomster guys that wander around with a sandwich board. But we know it’s really important, with big consequences, and it’s *so* annoying when people just tune out as if you had mentioned something really disgusting and off-putting at the dinner table. I showed my brother some graphs once and he was aghast – not by the information or it’s interpretation, but that someone supposedly sensible would actually engage is such disreputable and questionable activity (like having a loony acquaintance that can ‘prove’ the earth is flat). :huh:

I honestly think that without a website to focus the discussion nearly all HPC thoughts would probably be extinguished, and the secret black art of house price movements would be steamrollered flat out of existence by the promotional barrage that constitutes your typical housing news.

Edited by spline

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I found this site because I felt something was fundamentally wrong with house prices. I may be proved right or I may be proved wrong. But for the last few months I seem to wander from conversation to conversation with a conviction of a house price correction that no-one else in my circle seems to see. At first this used to bother me and I felt I must be wrong, that it couldn't possibly happen. Maybe I was being paranoid.

But the more I think about it the more convinced I am that it will happen. I can't say when or how far and fast although I do believe it has indeed started. It just feels to me that I can see something coming over the horizon that non-HPC people can't. I can't really explain it more than that other people have a pair of blinkers on or they may be looking in a different direction to me. Yet I seem to see these large headlights coming full steam over a hump backed bridge heading my way.

Do others feel this way?

There are many reasons to the crash..

in a few years it will be looked back as being the most bl**dy obvious thing that happened in this decade..

Staggers me that so many others have been convinced otherwise.

Gordon Browns greatest trick will have been to convince so many that they were becoming rich as they slid massivly into debt.

His legacy will be that of ruin to so many.

My thoughts and wishes go to them..

good night.. its late...

Edited by apom

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Guest Bart of Darkness
But for the last few months I seem to wander from conversation to conversation with a conviction of a house price correction that no-one else in my circle seems to see. At first this used to bother me and I felt I must be wrong, that it couldn't possibly happen. Maybe I was being paranoid.

Most people seem unable (unwilling?) to think about anything other than soaps, celeb tittle-tattle and sport.

They are like ants, which can see small things but not large ones.

At least, not until it's too late!

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a freeze on credit for credits sake will do the country a lot of good as we go back to essentials only. no glamour. less youngsters getting into heavy debt.

all these new things have been with us since 2001. none of them did us any good. i wont miss them.

retailers that cant hack anything other than a boom in consumer spending wont last.

asda and the like will have a field day. hmv may not.

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Do others feel this way?

It doesn't really matter how you "feel". When your gut instinct is telling you something that's different from the facts and figures, then it's wrong, 99 times out of 100.

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Guest The_Oldie
It doesn't really matter how you "feel". When your gut instinct is telling you something that's different from the facts and figures, then it's wrong, 99 times out of 100.

Not when the "facts and figures" are being spun!

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Interesting post.

I think what most of us are really tuned into is the fact that EVERYTHING comes to an end. We are realistic and understand that even good things come to an end. Please note I am not stating rising house prices is a good thing!

As Durch points out, we are seen as doom mongers. A lot of these people don't like talking about death either and immediately change the subject. Try it sometime. We all die at some stage but people don't like talking about wills and stuff. It's the old head in the sand strategy.

NDL

saying 'we all die, so dont worry about it' seems to scare other people, i dont see it as an issue, it just means i stop wishing my life away and make sure i enjoy every day im here.... and stops me from watching the idiot box.

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all these new things have been with us since 2001. none of them did us any good. i wont miss them.

retailers that cant hack anything other than a boom in consumer spending wont last.

asda and the like will have a field day. hmv may not.

Value will become the new trend.

I've always shopped at Asda...I felt a bit out of place when I had a brand new E class merc (company car), but I traded down to a diesel Passatt to avoid the tax, and I fitted in again! Anyone who shops at Waitrose, unless they are stupidly rich or don't have another shop nearby, are muppets of the highest order. I find it unbelievable when I talk to people who shop at Waitrose, M & S and Sainsburys because 'they wouldn't be seen dead in Asada'. They deserve to be ripped off. BTW, Tesco is a ripoff merchant too, they're just better at hiding it.

Companies that will prosper in the coming storm are ones like Asda, Easijet, online retailers like CDWOW. I reckon we'll see a few household names go to the wall by 2010, M & S being the first, at least one of the high street electrical retailers who are 20-30% more expensive than their online counterparts. At least one of the high street travel agents. HMV may be saved if they can deliver a well priced online music model.

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Value will become the new trend.

I've always shopped at Asda...I felt a bit out of place when I had a brand new E class merc (company car), but I traded down to a diesel Passatt to avoid the tax, and I fitted in again! Anyone who shops at Waitrose, unless they are stupidly rich or don't have another shop nearby, are muppets of the highest order. I find it unbelievable when I talk to people who shop at Waitrose, M & S and Sainsburys because 'they wouldn't be seen dead in Asada'. They deserve to be ripped off. BTW, Tesco is a ripoff merchant too, they're just better at hiding it.

Companies that will prosper in the coming storm are ones like Asda, Easijet, online retailers like CDWOW. I reckon we'll see a few household names go to the wall by 2010, M & S being the first, at least one of the high street electrical retailers who are 20-30% more expensive than their online counterparts. At least one of the high street travel agents. HMV may be saved if they can deliver a well priced online music model.

I shop at Waitrose by choice. Best food retailer in the country if you balance quality with cost IMO.

Mind you I also shop at any retailer for the bog standard basics like nappies or beans.

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I found this site because I felt something was fundamentally wrong with house prices. I may be proved right or I may be proved wrong. But for the last few months I seem to wander from conversation to conversation with a conviction of a house price correction that no-one else in my circle seems to see. At first this used to bother me and I felt I must be wrong, that it couldn't possibly happen. Maybe I was being paranoid.

But the more I think about it the more convinced I am that it will happen. I can't say when or how far and fast although I do believe it has indeed started. It just feels to me that I can see something coming over the horizon that non-HPC people can't. I can't really explain it more than that other people have a pair of blinkers on or they may be looking in a different direction to me. Yet I seem to see these large headlights coming full steam over a hump backed bridge heading my way.

Do others feel this way?

yes, I everywhere I look I see broke people...they just don't know it yet

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Not when the "facts and figures" are being spun!

"Spin" is an excellent reason why you shouldn't trust your instincts. It can change you reaction to the facts and figures, but it can't change the figures themselves, so ignoring your gut instinct and sticking with the facts means ignoring the spin.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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