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Two Thirds Of Gdp Is From Shopping

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This is what the man on breakfast news said today (about maybe 7.45) when talking about the figures for high street sales being down.

Is 2/3 of our gdp reliant on us being a nation of shoppers?

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Contrast that with China, where 70% of GDP is going into real estate investment.

Can you see the problem yet?

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Contrast that with China, where 70% of GDP is going into real estate investment.

Can you see the problem yet?

Their crash will be epic. Couple that with their upcoming demographic timebomb and eventual revaluation.

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Contrast that with China, where 70% of GDP is going into real estate investment.

Can you see the problem yet?

Are we exporting Homes Under The Hammer to them?

Well the other day HUTH featured a chinese girl who had made so much money in Chinese property, she was able to afford a "flutter" here. unsure.gif

Shopping, real estate, and banking are the way to go IMO.

Edited by Sir John Steed

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Well the other day HUTH featured a chinese girl who had made so much money in Chinese property, she was able to afford a "flutter" here. unsure.gif

She's diversifying her ponzi exposure across multiple ponzis. It's canny portfolio management, IMHO

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Had she paid her mortgages off by their increase in value?

They don't usually go into that amount of detail on HuTH. Its pwoperdee investment so every body wins!

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Their crash will be epic. Couple that with their upcoming demographic timebomb and eventual revaluation.

What demographic time bomb? The one child policy can be cancelled at ANY time, it has been experimentally withdrawn in various Han areas.

You also forget several important things, it costs less to look after old people in China for various reasons:

#1 There is no universal socialised healthcare thus no uber expensive medical bills which have to be covered by the state when people grow old.... like in western countries.

#2 Due to pollution, poor healthcare AND the government encouraging people to smoke life expectancy is low which again reduces medical bill costs.

#3 State pensions exist but it is widely considered to be a joke, they call it sweetie money, because its enough to buy a packet of sweets. Compare and contrast the massive promises made in the west to buy votes. The CCP doesn't need to buy votes.

Which means unlike the west there are few people who hang on for decades and decades, meaning old age costs considerably less and they don't suck the entire life out of the economy.

China's problem is water, which is to be partially resolved by the completion of a massive water project even the USSR didn't dare do. The USSR created the Aral sea/lake disaster, because they cut out the expensive bit, reversing the river obb. Several rivers in Western China are being diverted to the drier north. There is also talk of Siberian rivers being diverted as well.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8560009/UK-retail-sales-continue-to-fall-in-May.html

UK retail sales continue to fall in May
High street sales dropped by
more than 2pc
in May, reflecting the continuing retrenchment of the consumer economy.

Big number folks.

Its coming and its coming quickly: judgment day for the Brown years of dissipation and lack of regulation.

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What demographic time bomb? The one child policy can be cancelled at ANY time, it has been experimentally withdrawn in various Han areas.

You also forget several important things, it costs less to look after old people in China for various reasons:

#1 There is no universal socialised healthcare thus no uber expensive medical bills which have to be covered by the state when people grow old.... like in western countries.

#2 Due to pollution, poor healthcare AND the government encouraging people to smoke life expectancy is low which again reduces medical bill costs.

#3 State pensions exist but it is widely considered to be a joke, they call it sweetie money, because its enough to buy a packet of sweets. Compare and contrast the massive promises made in the west to buy votes. The CCP doesn't need to buy votes.

Which means unlike the west there are few people who hang on for decades and decades, meaning old age costs considerably less and they don't suck the entire life out of the economy.

China's problem is water, which is to be partially resolved by the completion of a massive water project even the USSR didn't dare do. The USSR created the Aral sea/lake disaster, because they cut out the expensive bit, reversing the river obb. Several rivers in Western China are being diverted to the drier north. There is also talk of Siberian rivers being diverted as well.

It doesn't matter whether the policy can be cancelled today, it is how long it has run in the past for. The die is already cast. The problems will start to hit in about 12-15 years, think Japan on Steroids.

Also, It isn't about the coverage of state pensions or health and welfare, its about the wage pressures of a shrinking available workforce. China is not going to start importing foreign workers

Current life expectancy is 73 and rising fast.

Someone from the family still has to look after the more infirm pensioners ( and I know you have to offset this against the sterling work Chinese mother-in-laws do in looking after the kids whilst the next generation goes out to work)

China's biggest problem is the eventual and inevitable revaluation of it' s currency.

Edited by Jack's Creation

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It doesn't matter whether the policy can be cancelled today, it is how long it has run in the past for. The die is already cast. The problems will start to hit in about 12-15 years, think Japan on Steroids.

Also, It isn't about the coverage of state pensions or health and welfare, its about the wage pressures of a shrinking available workforce. China is not going to start importing foreign workers

Current life expectancy is 73 and rising fast.

Someone from the family still has to look after the more infirm pensioners ( and I know you have to offset this against the sterling work Chinese mother-in-laws do in looking after the kids whilst the next generation goes out to work)

China's biggest problem is the eventual and inevitable revaluation of it' s currency.

China have played some cracking hands at the poker table recently, but everyone knows they'll bust out eventually.

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This is what the man on breakfast news said today (about maybe 7.45) when talking about the figures for high street sales being down.

Is 2/3 of our gdp reliant on us being a nation of shoppers?

Do they still include imputed rents?

1.3 Imputed rental income of owner occupiers

This component is calculated as part of household consumption and its calculation is described in

chapter 5.7. For imputed rentals separate estimates, using similar methodology, are made for owneroccupiers

and those living rent-free. The broad principle involved is to impute to a given owner-occupied

property a rental value, which is the same as the rental paid for a similar property in the private rented

sector

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/ESA95_GDP_Income.pdf

Why don't they do some car imputation? If you own a car outright you could have some imputed leasing. The UK could become rich overnight.

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If I have the misfortune to walk down Oxford Street, I sometimes wonder if 90% of gdp is from shopping?

Hard to judge though, based on monthly sales figures. Suppose I buy books or a computer via the net instead of in the High Street - does that show a fall in sales there? They must try and compensate for that factor, surely?

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Hang on - how much is from public spending then?

Also, given that these days debt interest is part of gdp and we are all up to the gills, surely that must make some dent - given the headline the other day that 3 of 5 days a week go to paying debt.

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What demographic time bomb? The one child policy can be cancelled at ANY time, it has been experimentally withdrawn in various Han areas.

You also forget several important things, it costs less to look after old people in China for various reasons:

#1 There is no universal socialised healthcare thus no uber expensive medical bills which have to be covered by the state when people grow old.... like in western countries.

#2 Due to pollution, poor healthcare AND the government encouraging people to smoke life expectancy is low which again reduces medical bill costs.

#3 State pensions exist but it is widely considered to be a joke, they call it sweetie money, because its enough to buy a packet of sweets. Compare and contrast the massive promises made in the west to buy votes. The CCP doesn't need to buy votes.

Which means unlike the west there are few people who hang on for decades and decades, meaning old age costs considerably less and they don't suck the entire life out of the economy.

China's problem is water, which is to be partially resolved by the completion of a massive water project even the USSR didn't dare do. The USSR created the Aral sea/lake disaster, because they cut out the expensive bit, reversing the river obb. Several rivers in Western China are being diverted to the drier north. There is also talk of Siberian rivers being diverted as well.

Life expectancy doesn`t seem all that different from ours:

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&idim=country:CHN&dl=en&hl=en&q=life+expectancy+china#ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:CHN:GBR&hl=en&dl=en

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This is what the man on breakfast news said today (about maybe 7.45) when talking about the figures for high street sales being down.

Is 2/3 of our gdp reliant on us being a nation of shoppers?

So really that means that 2/3 of our GDP is based on the availability of credit! What a mess we are in.

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So really that means that 2/3 of our GDP is based on the availability of credit! What a mess we are in.

Not if you are Sir Philip Green it isn't. Its why he's a fat oink!

Plus the media in tow, telling us the latest "must haves" which we can't exist without like iCrap.

This is why I like "old money." Used to know those types once, they made a telly from the 50''s last well into the 70's. laugh.gif

Edited by Sir John Steed

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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