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rantnrave

Halifax Data Now Out!

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Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"House prices continue to drift modestly downwards as measured by the underlying trend. Prices in the

three months to May were 1.2% lower than in the previous three months; unchanged from April. There

was a 0.1% rise in prices in May following April's 1.4% decline.

"Low earnings growth, higher taxes and relatively high inflation are all putting pressure on household

finances. Confidence is also weak as a result of uncertainty about the economic and employment

outlook. These factors are probably constraining housing demand and applying some downward

pressure on prices.

"Overall, we expect a moderate improvement in the economy during the remainder of 2011, which

combined with continuing low interest rates, is likely to support housing demand. This should prevent a

further marked fall in prices and help to stabilise property values later in the year."

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what did he say last year?

moderate growth expected due to low interest rates?

I bet he did.

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Up 0.1% MoM

Annual change -4.2%

Quarterly change -1.2%

Average Price £160,519

Report here

Radio 5 Live were reporting this as "house prices fell 4.2% on the year", rather than the QoQ or MoM figures.

Always nice

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That's what I'm thinking/worrying about.

They need to move the lower stamp duty threshold up to £150k, that'll budge them down.

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So, with RPI at 5.2% are we talking house prices down 9.4% year on year in real terms?!

Cant get excited about real terms. If you are interested in sustainable prices, its more relevant to measure the performance of the market against wages.

Inflation being so far ahead of wages does nothing to sustain prices, it erodes disposable income and makes prices even more vulnerable!

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So, with RPI at 5.2% are we talking house prices down 9.4% year on year in real terms?!

Yeah, although really it should be vs. wages, or even "real incomes".

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So, with RPI at 5.2% are we talking house prices down 9.4% year on year in real terms?!

That looks like a crash to me and it will keep going down till wages start rising (in real terms) at a higher rate than the real rate of inflation.

I still believe that house prices will only stop falling when interest rates stop rising.

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That looks like a crash to me and it will keep going down till wages start rising (in real terms) at a higher rate than the real rate of inflation.

I still believe that house prices will only stop falling when interest rates stop rising.

When did they start? (in the UK I mean)

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You have to include the effects of RPI. Housing doesn't exist in a parellel umiverse but competes against all other items of discretionary spending.The effect of a real 9% drop against prices in 2010 is hugely significant when motoring,holidays,clothing, food etc are taken into account.There was a report yesterday saying that running a car had increased 21% in the last year and vAT has added another 2.5% to many other costs.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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