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This is taking things more offtopic than a thread with a gold bug infestation.

Back on topic the news hae been showing pictures of Cam and co going into the emergency session with Euro leaders on how to "fix" Greece.

Edited by FIGGY
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Back on topic the news hae been showing pictures of Cam and co going into the emergency session with Euro leaders on how to "fix" Greece.

No fixes I think . . . just more calls for Greeks to be 'united' . . . behind the banks. :)

European leaders sent a two-pronged message from Brussels, calling for an end to bickering over austerity while promising to save the debt-wracked country from bankruptcy.

“We will ask the leaders and citizens of Greece to rise to the occasion and do what must be done,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said today before a two-day European summit in Brussels.

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Show me anywhere where I have deflated numbers of Jewish casualties of war. Again, if you read more carefully, you will see that my argument is that totally one-sided, rewritten views of history, and especially wars, serve no purpose.

I shall with-tract 'deflated' and submit 'disparaged'.

However, you still are conflating the aggressors with the victims of WW2. I'm genuinely sorry that terrible things happened to german civilians after the war, but your numbers are misleading and you ignore history. To be frank, germany got off pretty lightly in the post-war settlement, bar the natural consequences of really peeing off the russians...

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8594915/Greece-says-Greek-banks-will-take-part-in-debt-rollover.html

Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek finance minister, said Greek banks were willing to take part in a debt rollover as he unveiled a solidarity tax and other measures to help Greece plug a €5.5bn (£4.9bn) hole in an EU-IMF austerity plan.

The €28bn plan has to be passed by Parliament if the country is to get bailout funds crucial to averting a debt default next month that could send shock waves through the global financial system.

Mr Venizelos said on Thursday that talks were still ongoing with an EU-IMF delegation to finalise a new plan but the government had agreed to several steps to increase revenues. These included:

Looks like it's a default then, haven't the credit agencies said a rollover will equal default or has someone being having a quite word with credit agencies to guarantee this isn't rated as a default.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8594915/Greece-says-Greek-banks-will-take-part-in-debt-rollover.html

Looks like it's a default then, haven't the credit agencies said a rollover will equal default or has someone being having a quite word with credit agencies to guarantee this isn't rated as a default.

The agencies also threatened to cut the ratings of three French banks a couple of days ago. I'm sure someone is having a word with them.

It could be archipelagonomics . . . keep it zipped and we'll kick you back an island when the deal is dusted.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8594915/Greece-says-Greek-banks-will-take-part-in-debt-rollover.html

Looks like it's a default then, haven't the credit agencies said a rollover will equal default or has someone being having a quite word with credit agencies to guarantee this isn't rated as a default.

Shame, I'm now firmly in the bailout and stay in the Euro camp

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Looks like it's a default then, haven't the credit agencies said a rollover will equal default or has someone being having a quite word with credit agencies to guarantee this isn't rated as a default.

I dont think so, its only Greek domestic banks and bond holders that will roll over, as it wont impact the big boys (GS, Barclays etc) it wont be classed as a default. This is just my guess????

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I dont think so, its only Greek domestic banks and bond holders that will roll over, as it wont impact the big boys (GS, Barclays etc) it wont be classed as a default. This is just my guess????

Of course the Greek banks will be happy to roll over. But will the foreign banks and bond holders? I very much doubt at least not voluntarily. If I held Greek bonds maturing next month I'd be getting the fvck out!

Edit: ah I see what your saying now. But I still can't see bondholders voluntarily rolling over.

Edited by Pent Up
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So they roll over, everyone else gets paid and a default is avoided?

It would seem so although I have no idea how that would work, I guess its the Germans getting the voluntary bit they wanted. To me it looks like the Greeks getting even more fooked over

Edited by FIGGY
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Where do you get the "they" wanted this or that evidence from? All my Greek friends couldn't have given a stuff about joining. Still don't

Well, they elected a Government that took them into the EU.

I like the Greeks. They are pretty chuffed about inventing democracy ages ago, I am sure they would have got it adjusted properly by now so that it worked.

Anyway, i expect that the Greeks who are upset about people implying that that they won't repay the debts are eager to prove otherwise. Otherwise, the people who imply that the Greeks can't or won't pay would be... correct.

Εντάξει?

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So, the proposed solution is to slap a 5% income tax on the Greek people???!!!

What a brilliant plan, I can't see any problem with that at all :D:D

Wow, so an extra 5% on nothing is, lets see, nothing. If the Greeks are reluctant to pay tax now they will be even less reluctant to pay during the indebted servitude.

Maybe this Vanity Fair article has been posted before, but if you have not seen it, its well worth a read:

Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds

Highlights:

  • In October 2010 they had $1.2 trillion debt (roughly a quarter-million dollars for each working adult)

  • In just the past decade the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled,

  • The average government job pays almost three times the average private-sector job.

  • The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses.

  • The average state railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year.

  • Their public-school system is one of the lowest-ranked systems in Europe, it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers per pupil as the highest-ranked, Finland’s.

  • The retirement age for Greek jobs classified as “arduous” is as early as 55 for men and 50 for women, more than 600 Greek professions somehow managed to get themselves classified as arduous: hairdressers, radio announcers, waiters, musicians...

Edited by Redback911
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Well, they elected a Government that took them into the EU.

I like the Greeks. They are pretty chuffed about inventing democracy ages ago, I am sure they would have got it adjusted properly by now so that it worked.

Anyway, i expect that the Greeks who are upset about people implying that that they won't repay the debts are eager to prove otherwise. Otherwise, the people who imply that the Greeks can't or won't pay would be... correct.

Εντάξει?

But don't forget it's less than fifty years since Greece had a military coup, its not always been a smooth ride for democracy.

(Apologies if this has already been pointed out in this thread, I can't be bothered to read twenty pages.) edit - FORTY pages

Edited by Ellie
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8595285/Pressure-on-Greece-escalates-as-EU-leaders-meet-to-avert-crisis.html

Greece's finance minister said he had agreed changes to a five-year austerity package with EU-IMF negotiators, as European leaders gathered in Brussels for their own crisis summit.

To be fair he can agree to whatever he likes, that doesn't mean the Greek Parliament will and it doesn't mean that the Greek people will comply.

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Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds

Highlights:

  • In October 2010 they had $1.2 trillion debt (roughly a quarter-million dollars for each working adult)

  • In just the past decade the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled,

  • The average government job pays almost three times the average private-sector job.

  • The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses.

  • The average state railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year.

  • Their public-school system is one of the lowest-ranked systems in Europe, it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers per pupil as the highest-ranked, Finland’s.

  • The retirement age for Greek jobs classified as “arduous” is as early as 55 for men and 50 for women, more than 600 Greek professions somehow managed to get themselves classified as arduous: hairdressers, radio announcers, waiters, musicians...

It's been on HPC before although I don't think it's in this thread. I can remember reading about the railroads and thinking that's insane, no wonder the country is screwed.

Although I love the idea of drinking coffee and talking into a microphone is classed as arduous work. The Greeks really have took the p155. All helpfully funded on the back of the German taxpayer.

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It's been on HPC before although I don't think it's in this thread. I can remember reading about the railroads and thinking that's insane, no wonder the country is screwed.

Although I love the idea of drinking coffee and talking into a microphone is classed as arduous work. The Greeks really have took the p155. All helpfully funded on the back of the German taxpayer.

Either that or the young/unborn Greeks who shouldn't be forced to pay it either.

If democracy can't function without voters borrowing from those not able to vote, then democracy is fatally flawed; sooner or later, you run out of 'victims' to borrow on the behalf of and then it comes crashing down.

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Well, they elected a Government that took them into the EU.

I like the Greeks. They are pretty chuffed about inventing democracy ages ago, I am sure they would have got it adjusted properly by now so that it worked.

The English claim to have invented football. They're still shit at it, nonetheless.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13899864

How long would it take to flush that amount of money down the toilet? A very long time I imagine.

Article seems slightly unclear in what its saying.....

Are they merely agreeing to increase the total funds they are prepared to lend by another 120bn - subject to them voting for more austerity next week?

or, are they saying they are not even waiting for the new austerity measures, they can start to have the money now?

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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-austrias-green-party-position-kill-greek-bailout-package

While EU leaders look forward to a multitude of emergency meetings until July 20, when Greece has to pay back a government bond with a volume of €6.6 billion, the fate of Greece's bailout may ultimately lie in the hands of the Green party in the dwarf nation Austria.

Austria's Green Party sent an open (German language) letter to the country's chancellor Werner Faymann on Thursday, threatening to boycott a vote in the Austrian parliament where a 2/3 majority is needed for a change of the constitution that would allow Austria to participate in the €138 billion bailout package for the Hellenic peninsula. As a Euro member Austria has the obligation to take part in the bailout that is hugely unpopular with voters/taxpayers.

Looks like there could be a spanner in the works from elsewhere in the EU yet.

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Tick, tock: The risks of depositor flight in Greece

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13909441

Worth following the link for the full blog.

Today David Owen of the investment bank Jefferies International warns that it is depositor behaviour, not European bank exposure to Greek debt or Greek-linked CDS, which could be the most dangerous source of contagion from what's going on in Athens (and Brussels):

"What should now be worrying policy makers is the risk of deposit flight from the periphery and what that would then potentially imply for activity and government debt dynamics in those economies. Think where government debt dynamics could eventually end up in Greece say, if the banking sector (balance sheet of almost €500bn) effectively shut down and had to be nationalised." (Owen D and Alexandrovich M, 24 June 2011, Jefferies International)

Owen points out that the Greek central bank significantly hiked the amount of liquidity it pumped into the economy in May (ready money) by 10bn euros - and that this would have been provided effectively by the German central bank as part of the Eurosystem. Everybody is now watching the figures due at 10.20am on Tuesday for one-week liquidity in the Eurozone.

There is already evidence of medium term flight from Greece. This was one of the reasons the credit rating agencies began their recent spate of downgrades. After euro 13bn flowed out of the Greek banking system (5% of all deposits) in the first four months of this year (and 12% in the 12 months before) S&P concluded:

"In our view, outflows of domestic deposits could conceivably continue to intensify depending on the public's view of the impact that Greece's deteriorating creditworthiness may have on the banking system. Domestic customers of Greek banks have demonstrated their sensitivity to signs of deterioration in the sovereign's creditworthiness…" (15 June)

One complication of this potential flight of cash and deposits is what it means for counter-crisis measures. Quantitative easing, as practiced by the Bank of England, was designed to pump money into the banking system. Though the money supply has recently turned negative in the UK, without QE says Owen it would have been deeply negative for the past three years.

The problem in the Eurozone is that with cash flight out of Greece, or out of the banking system into the mattresses of Attica, pumping money into the Eurosystem does not equal reflating the periphery. What it does is, Owen argues, leave the periphery floundering while over-pressuring the core economies. That's why it would not work.

We already know, anecdotally, that demand for gold is on the increase in Greece and across Europe. There are other anecdotal stories around worth keeping an eye on: Swiss watch manufacturers report a 50% increase in sales of gold watches to Greece, Portugal and Spain in May, to 42m euros worth in a single month. (Thank god it's not gold medallions I am thinking because while I love the 1970s funkadelic look I don't want to see it on my holidays).

So as the media's eyes are glued on the Greek strikers and indignant ones, it's worth keeping your eyes on the not-so-indignant ones: the depositors, the suppliers of liquidity, the watch shops at the airport and, of course, the cameramen.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13906745

Falling dominoes

Here's the thing. It is not at all clear that Europe's banks are making adequate preparation to cope with such potential pain.

In the tests of the stresses they can absorb, being overseen by the newly created European Banking Authority, they have been told - for the first time - to make some provisions for potential losses on the 80% of their sovereign exposure which is held in their so-called banking books.

But it is not at all clear that banks are being asked to protect themselves against either the worst that could happen, in respect of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain - or indeed what may in fact happen.

Which is why Sir Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, made clear that he doesn't take enormous comfort from big UK banks' relatively limited direct exposure to Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain.

According to the Bank of England's analysis, if every single one of those countries went bust and wrote off 50% of their sovereign debt, banking debt and non-bank private-sector debt, that would wipe out around half the capital in the UK banking system - which is another way of saying that, in theory, the majority of our banks would limp on.

Still it's not like there could be a UK housing crash either to take care of the other 50%....

If Greece defaults, I think the Irish will follow.

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  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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