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Losing Faith

Historical Inflation Data

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there is a lot of talk about nulab fiddling the indeces we use to track inflation.

i don't think i have ever seen inflation charted before on HPC so, here they are.

cpi is quite a new measure really and so we only have a couple of decades. what would cpi have looked like in the seventies when rpi went crazy?

looking at it, cpi seems a flatter measure by all accounts and it is easy to why it might be prefered recently.

the fact that cpi has upticked lately to an astonishing degree whilst rpi has remained flat goes some way to prove that rentals must be falling.

i base this on the rather sweeping estimate that rpi (roughly) = cpi + housing costs.

inflation.JPG

post-2330-1128018886_thumb.jpg

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there is a lot of talk about nulab fiddling the indeces we use to track inflation.

i don't think i have ever seen inflation charted before on HPC so, here they are.

cpi is quite a new measure really and so we only have a couple of decades. what would cpi have looked like in the seventies when rpi went crazy?

looking at it, cpi seems a flatter measure by all accounts and it is easy to why it might be prefered recently.

the fact that cpi has upticked lately to an astonishing degree whilst rpi has remained flat goes some way to prove that rentals must be falling.

i base this on the rather sweeping estimate that rpi (roughly) = cpi + housing costs.

inflation.JPG

Don't want to be too political, but looking from 1997, is it fair to say that inflation has been pretty much understated, which in turn has led to a long period of oversupply of cheap credit and therefore demand based inflation? If this is the case then this does explain so much of the current economic circumstances we find ourselves in.

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Don't want to be too political, but looking from 1997, is it fair to say that inflation has been pretty much understated, which in turn has led to a long period of oversupply of cheap credit and therefore demand based inflation? If this is the case then this does explain so much of the current economic circumstances we find ourselves in.

yes. i dare say you're right. it looks altogether more benign... untill recently however. there were two significant jumps this year that have pretty much blown the thin cover that even CPI provided..

there was the large jump a few months ago to 1.9 and then to 2.0 which took me by suprise (we were around 1.4 or something for ages) then last month and month before to 2.3 and 2.4. enormous jump by recent trends.

the truth will out and is.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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