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Realistbear

Catastrophic Collapse In Construction Orders--Worst Since 1987

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/uk-britain-construction-orders-idUKTRE7521OU20110603

Construction orders suffer biggest fall since 1987
LONDON | Fri Jun 3, 2011 10:13am BST
(Reuters) - New construction orders suffered their biggest fall since 1987 in the first three months of 2011, raising concerns that the sector may continue to be a drag on the economy in the second quarter of this year.

Catastrophic is about right. This is a sudden and dramatic dowturn that most of us knew was coming and here it is.

One wants to smile but one realises there is soon going to be hell to pay for the years of HPI and Banksterism.

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But according to the Torygraph 3 weeks ago:

'We still don't believe it" says construction industry as ONS revises down contraction in the first quarter

Chief executives and trade bodies says the data simply does not match with anecdotal evidence – and upbeat trading updates from listed companies – of a pick-up in activity from the snow-ridden days of December.
...
A spokesman for the CPA said: “The latest figures from ONS indicate that construction output fell by 4pc in Q1, but this conflicts with our evidence from contractors, specialists and construction product manufacturers as shown in our latest Construction Trade Survey that both workloads and sales rose in the first quarter of 2011.
...
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said he would “ignore” the data if it was not part of the official GDP statistics.
He added: “We simply do not believe the picture they have been presenting of the sector over the past year. The purchasing managers' survey has painted a far more upbeat story for the sector so far this year, showing a reasonable rebound in growth in the first quarter, which is consistent with other related indicators and evidence from the major builders.”

The amount of contradictory babble is surely a sign that we're still stuck at the bottom.

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But according to the Torygraph 3 weeks ago:

'We still don't believe it" says construction industry as ONS revises down contraction in the first quarter

Chief executives and trade bodies says the data simply does not match with anecdotal evidence – and upbeat trading updates from listed companies – of a pick-up in activity from the snow-ridden days of December.
...
A spokesman for the CPA said: "The latest figures from ONS indicate that construction output fell by 4pc in Q1, but this conflicts with our evidence from contractors, specialists and construction product manufacturers as shown in our latest Construction Trade Survey that both workloads and sales rose in the first quarter of 2011.
...
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said he would "ignore" the data if it was not part of the official GDP statistics.
He added: "We simply do not believe the picture they have been presenting of the sector over the past year. The purchasing managers' survey has painted a far more upbeat story for the sector so far this year, showing a reasonable rebound in growth in the first quarter, which is consistent with other related indicators and evidence from the major builders."

The amount of contradictory babble is surely a sign that we're still stuck at the bottom.

1) Firms only respond to "surveys" if they are still in business. Less firms in business means the remaining firms may get more but the total is still down.

2) Their sample might be heavily skewed

3) have just awarded a big contract to a non UK firm (ok they will use local subs...) but how does this show up in the Markit survey?

4) rampant construction materials inflation is this skewing the order sizes and hence surveys but gets taken care of in the GDP calcs

5) the GDP calc problem is a timing and seasonality issue as the firms have to guess the value of the work before it is properly invoiced. should sort it self out in the final GDP figure.

6) Contracts that are not completed are taken account of in GDP figures but not retrospectively in surveys.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/uk-britain-construction-orders-idUKTRE7521OU20110603

Construction orders suffer biggest fall since 1987
LONDON | Fri Jun 3, 2011 10:13am BST
(Reuters) - New construction orders suffered their biggest fall since 1987 in the first three months of 2011, raising concerns that the sector may continue to be a drag on the economy in the second quarter of this year.

Catastrophic is about right. This is a sudden and dramatic dowturn that most of us knew was coming and here it is.

One wants to smile but one realises there is soon going to be hell to pay for the years of HPI and Banksterism.

Construction orders in Q4 were revised up by 26%, makes me think these figures may not be really reliable. Surely Q1 should have been bumper yet output fell 4%, apparently?

The ONS clearly don’t have a clue what they are doing with construction figures. Just yesterday the construction PMI showed the industry growing reasonably.

RICS and the CPA have both questioned the output figures and think they are nonsense. They ONS construction output figures are clearly garbage. No surprise those desperate to keep IR down and HPI up are delighted with the data being put out.

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I was speaking to a rep from JCB (the digger people). He said the market for plant was "on fire", and this was largely due to low interest rates on the finance, underwritten by RBS, indeed.

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I was speaking to a rep from JCB (the digger people). He said the market for plant was "on fire", and this was largely due to low interest rates on the finance, underwritten by RBS, indeed.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/05/30/construction-insolvencies-idUKLDE74Q0YK20110530

UK building firms buckle under public sector cuts
By Lorraine "Lori" Turner
LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) -
Insolvencies in the British construction sector surged in the first quarter
, rising for the first time in two years and raising fears that government cuts were hitting the sector harder than first feared.
The number of businesses going bankrupt climbed 19 percent to 948 from 796 in the prior quarter as fiscal stimulus for infrastructure projects dried up, according to a report from Wilkins Kennedy.

JCB may be basing their optimism on how things were at the beginning of the year when global demand was rising and sellers were optimistic of another bout of HPI.

Edited by Realistbear

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One wants to smile but one realises there is soon going to be hell to pay for the years of HPI and Banksterism.

We may regret ever wanting cheaper housing the way things are unfolding...

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But according to the Torygraph 3 weeks ago:

'We still don't believe it" says construction industry as ONS revises down contraction in the first quarter

Chief executives and trade bodies says the data simply does not match with anecdotal evidence – and upbeat trading updates from listed companies – of a pick-up in activity from the snow-ridden days of December.
...
A spokesman for the CPA said: “The latest figures from ONS indicate that construction output fell by 4pc in Q1, but this conflicts with our evidence from contractors, specialists and construction product manufacturers as shown in our latest Construction Trade Survey that both workloads and sales rose in the first quarter of 2011.
...
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said he would “ignore” the data if it was not part of the official GDP statistics.
He added: “We simply do not believe the picture they have been presenting of the sector over the past year. The purchasing managers' survey has painted a far more upbeat story for the sector so far this year, showing a reasonable rebound in growth in the first quarter, which is consistent with other related indicators and evidence from the major builders.”

The amount of contradictory babble is surely a sign that we're still stuck at the bottom.

Maybe its a false bottom, and I am not talking about the one a gay smuggler has in his suitcase

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Nobby Francis sees the collapse too:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5fc60b18-8dc9-11e0-a0c4-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss

Noble Francis, economics director at the Construction Products Association, said the decline in new orders pointed towards “the start of the public spending cuts that we had anticipated” and added “we would expect this to feed through into construction output during the second half of the year”.

Never seen so much bearishness in the press as I have seen in the last 48 hours. Perhaps the gig is up and the freefall is going to happen as the VIs give up kicking against some very large and powerful goads.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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