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SueDeNimm

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Hello, first post here, been reading a while.

Thought you might find this interesting, this is actually happening at the moment.

Location NorthWest

Person 1: £10k deposit, literally all of life savings. Has taken a second job to be able to buy a not-great 2 up, 2 down terrace house in a poor area, offered almost full asking price. Mortgaged to the max taking into account salaries from both jobs but will need also income from lodger for at least 6 months whilst she furnishes the house etc, as mortgage payments are going to be aprox 50% of take home pay. From both jobs. Gets keys tomorrow.

Person 2: has salary of 2 times person 1. Is said lodger @ £250 per month all in incl. bills. Whacks difference between measly rent and potential possible large mortgage payment each month into savings account.

Which one do you think I am?

I have tried over the last few months with no success to speak to person 1 about the sense of being a FTB right now. Would it really be so bad to rent for another year and see what happens to prices/inflation/interest rates/properties available? But no, the VIs have done an excellent job on her and she firmly believes that prices will rise ad infinitum and therefore will be completely unaffordable this time next year, given the extent to which she has had to stretch herself right now.

I have no knowledge of economics, the FTSE, sterling and dollar fluctuations, I only heard of peak oil when I came here. BUT, I do have commonsense and logic, and to me she's made probably the worst mistake of her financial life.

How any VI can dare say that its a good time for FTBs makes my blood boil. Why should I, a professional 32 years old woman, have to 'club together with 2 or 3 others in my situation' to get on the housing ladder?' Its insulting. Sure, if my partner and I combined our savings and incomes we could afford a lovely house, but fortunately he thinks the same way as me. The Great Housing Crash, Why It Is Inevitable, Debt and The High Street, and Did You Know That If Local Prices Continue To Rise At The Same Rate You Will Need £1M To Buy An Ex-Council House In My Village In 8 Yrs, are things I enjoy discussing with my peers. Not to mention the Spot Who's Been Paying Their Mortgage With Their Credit Card game.

However, with all this logic, some individuals still persist in believing that prices will continue to increase, forever. And we just have to sit tight and wait until all those individuals have thrown their money away.

Thank goodness for this site and I will continue to direct any interested parties/converts to have a look here.

Hello all. :)

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Hello, first post here, been reading a while.

Thought you might find this interesting, this is actually happening at the moment.

Location NorthWest

Person 1: £10k deposit, literally all of life savings. Has taken a second job to be able to buy a not-great 2 up, 2 down terrace house in a poor area, offered almost full asking price. Mortgaged to the max taking into account salaries from both jobs but will need also income from lodger for at least 6 months whilst she furnishes the house etc, as mortgage payments are going to be aprox 50% of take home pay. From both jobs. Gets keys tomorrow.

Person 2: has salary of 2 times person 1. Is said lodger @ £250 per month all in incl. bills. Whacks difference between measly rent and potential possible large mortgage payment each month into savings account.

Which one do you think I am?

I have tried over the last few months with no success to speak to person 1 about the sense of being a FTB right now. Would it really be so bad to rent for another year and see what happens to prices/inflation/interest rates/properties available? But no, the VIs have done an excellent job on her and she firmly believes that prices will rise ad infinitum and therefore will be completely unaffordable this time next year, given the extent to which she has had to stretch herself right now.

I have no knowledge of economics, the FTSE, sterling and dollar fluctuations, I only heard of peak oil when I came here. BUT, I do have commonsense and logic, and to me she's made probably the worst mistake of her financial life.

How any VI can dare say that its a good time for FTBs makes my blood boil. Why should I, a professional 32 years old woman, have to 'club together with 2 or 3 others in my situation' to get on the housing ladder?' Its insulting. Sure, if my partner and I combined our savings and incomes we could afford a lovely house, but fortunately he thinks the same way as me. The Great Housing Crash, Why It Is Inevitable, Debt and The High Street, and Did You Know That If Local Prices Continue To Rise At The Same Rate You Will Need £1M To Buy An Ex-Council House In My Village In 8 Yrs, are things I enjoy discussing with my peers. Not to mention the Spot Who's Been Paying Their Mortgage With Their Credit Card game.

However, with all this logic, some individuals still persist in believing that prices will continue to increase, forever. And we just have to sit tight and wait until all those individuals have thrown their money away.

Thank goodness for this site and I will continue to direct any interested parties/converts to have a look here.

Hello all. :)

Welcome. Nice nickname, by the way. Wish I'd thought of it.

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What you fail to realise is that approx 90% of the British public are as thick as wale omelette.

The VIs know this (and the government for that matter) and get the media hors to spoon feed

these zombies with slightly sugared s**t.

Mmm, gobble, gobble, everyone else is eating this, so it must taste good.

Apologies for the language; I have a hang over.

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No need to apologise for the language I find myself getting quite, erm, animated myself when discussing this.

I quite agree with the sentiment that the majority of people will believe what Kirsty and Phil (or whatever they are called) tell them, as opposed to what they can see with their own eyes.

Its going on right under everyone's noses and its time to wake up and smell the s**t, to put it bluntly.

Now that bad news is filtering through from the high street etc and actually making it onto TV and in the papers, perhaps people will believe it.

Cheers for the comp also, I quite like the name myself :)

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SueDeNimm

I am glad to see someone of good intelligence making a wise choice.

As an oldie who is 54 I have lived through to recession. Watched

labour in 1970s destroyed this country and then the conservatives

destroyed it again 1990s. Do not believe the lies put them to the

back of your mind. And don't forget the saying "good things come

to those wait".

One saying is its different this time.

Bigger the boom the bigger the bust.

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Welcome new person with good name. I have had mine so long now (on here and incidently since birth) that I can't change it.

I think that maybe you are a great example of sentiment in action.

I fear that it is often the case that people see what they want to see. You and your boyfriend refuse to buy because you see the real issue as it faces you, that prices are ridiculously high and you would have to borrow excessively to achieve very little. BTL's who have properties will not see the impending crash because they are alright with the current situation.

I had and house and sold it, so conveniently I like to think of myself as seeing both sides!

If you really want to hate Kirsty, then look at the ITV piece done about this site and Kirsties hatred for us bears.

Its in the HPC in the media section from the front forum menu.

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It might be my imagination but much of this forum seems to be very self congratulatory with lots of back slapping about how wonderful you are. I used to dip in well over a year ago and there was always a sense that many posters were willing a price crash on. It still hasn’t happened albeit we are certainly a lot less buoyant.

I’m just curious as to what the point of all this – you all strongly feel you are right and you are mostly preaching to the converted. Dissenters equally feel quite happy with what they are doing - at the end of the day renting may be cheaper, but there’s a strong psychological urge to having some claim to a bit of turf and a roof over your head. Almost as strong is that feeling of satisfaction as the mortgage is reduced.

I am an economist by background and I know what the counter arguments are – personally I think there is some merit in them but it still suits many people (including me) to stay firmly in the property owning camp. I’ve got enough equity to ride out any downturn, plus I’m locked into various fixing structures that would be costly to unwind.

I’m rambling a bit but in summary I just wonder what all this debate serves apart from massaging your egos and slapping down anyone who disagrees?

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Would it really be so bad to rent for another year and see what happens to prices/inflation/interest rates/properties available?

The truth is that the wait could be much longer than you think. By next year we could be in much the same position. I STR (sold to rent) just over 1 year ago – and to be honest not much has changed, still waiting for the crash but instead found that houses have gone up by several thousand pounds. At this point the crash may not be a crash but 10 years of small reductions or you could see it as my name suggests – it’s never been a slow crash before

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Welcome Sue - frustrating isn't it. I keep hearing my mates say 'Buy now' and 'the government won't let house fall' etc

ERR NO I WONT BUY NOW!

:lol:

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I’m just curious as to what the point of all this

I'm just curious as to what the point of your post was?

You say you will be fine in any downturn-bully for you.

You say renting is cheaper than owning- this is not news to many on the forum.

You say that there are many irrational reasons for buying property-again, tell us something we don't know?

Almost as strong is that feeling of satisfaction as the mortgage is reduced.

Not by inflation however. For all intents and purposes we have price stability in the UK (and indeed, this is part of the MPC's remit).

it still suits many people (including me) to stay firmly in the property owning camp.

Really? How interesting but.....so what?

HPC serves as a kind of 'support group' for the many priced-out FTB's who frequent the forum. It also incidentally serves as a clearinghouse for "crash" news and a way for FTB's and STR's alike to exchange anecdotes and advice. And I honestly think the accusations of 'backslapping' and 'self-congratulation' are a bit much, considering the overwhelming smugness and arrogance of bulls before the market "cooled" (and indeed, some still persist in this manner).

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Why should I, a professional 32 years old woman, have to 'club together with 2 or 3 others in my situation' to get on the housing ladder?'

This question is the immediate (emotional) response to the suggestion. However, the solution of joint ownership is illogical and irrelevant, and I don't often see this pointed out.

What is one supposed to do having jointly bought a house (with friends) once the time comes to move on? To get married? To have kids? Well, of course, you sell your jointly-owned house, and move up the ladder...

Only to discover that you've only got half-a-house's worth of equity each to put against the next-house-up. So you're still in the same boat.

That's not a plan.

:)

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It might be my imagination but much of this forum seems to be very self congratulatory with lots of back slapping about how wonderful you are. I used to dip in well over a year ago and there was always a sense that many posters were willing a price crash on. It still hasn’t happened albeit we are certainly a lot less buoyant.

I’m just curious as to what the point of all this – you all strongly feel you are right and you are mostly preaching to the converted. Dissenters equally feel quite happy with what they are doing - at the end of the day renting may be cheaper, but there’s a strong psychological urge to having some claim to a bit of turf and a roof over your head. Almost as strong is that feeling of satisfaction as the mortgage is reduced.

I am an economist by background and I know what the counter arguments are – personally I think there is some merit in them but it still suits many people (including me) to stay firmly in the property owning camp. I’ve got enough equity to ride out any downturn, plus I’m locked into various fixing structures that would be costly to unwind.

I’m rambling a bit but in summary I just wonder what all this debate serves apart from massaging your egos and slapping down anyone who disagrees?

That's a bit harsh. Yes there can be some groupthink on here, but there is also a tremendous amount of disagreement about whether or not there will even be a houseprice crash, what would constitute a houseprice crash (e.g., would ten years of no nominal and/or real growth in houseprices be a 'crash', historically speaking?), etc. And the point about the value of 'a bit of turf and a roof over your head' being factored in as a possibly measurable element to consider when comparing the price of owning vs. renting has been discussed several times on here -- you're not the first chap to make that point. You give too little credit to some very intelligent discussions that have occurred on here.

But what unites most people on here, I think, is that this website offers some useful ideas & facts to counter the otherwise un-countered idea that buying is always smarter than renting no matter what the price. It's hard to overstate how deeply this idea is lodged in the way people think about property in this country. The truth is that for most people, at a specified price point (I would say when houseprices exceed 6x average income), it makes more sense to rent than to buy, and we passed that price point sometime between 2001-2003, depending on ones area. Oh, and we all couldn't be happier that you have 'enough equity to ride out any downturn'.

jrb

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SueDeNimm[/b]' date='Sep 29 2005, 01:34 PM' post='201812']

Hello, first post here, been reading a while.

Thought you might find this interesting, this is actually happening at the moment.

Location NorthWest

Person 1: £10k deposit, literally all of life savings. Has taken a second job to be able to buy a not-great 2 up, 2 down terrace house in a poor area, offered almost full asking price. Mortgaged to the max taking into account salaries from both jobs but will need also income from lodger for at least 6 months whilst she furnishes the house etc, as mortgage payments are going to be aprox 50% of take home pay. From both jobs. Gets keys tomorrow.

Person 2: has salary of 2 times person 1. Is said lodger @ £250 per month all in incl. bills. Whacks difference between measly rent and potential possible large mortgage payment each month into savings account.

Which one do you think I am?

Probably the renter i presume.

Person 1 as you said will need the income from a lodger for 6 month - 6 month wow such a long time! So after 6 month they show person 2 the door ? boo hoo and person 2 has paid toward someone elses mortgage! in other words no return on their cash no roof over their head at the end of it.

Person 2 after 6 month is homeless , person 1 has a home ! Which ones brainless now ?In 6 months time i you will still be finding you should have bought as prices wont be coming down as you expect

Edited by kissmyb

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AWOOOOOOGA!

Ok kissmyb, what happens if property prices fall by 5% in 6 months? Thats an average saving of about 7,000.

Edited by dapperdave

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AWOOOOOOGA!

Ok kissmyb, what happens if property prices fall by 5% in 6 months? Thats an average saving of about 7,000.

And what if they dont ?What if they rise even more? You bears are all ifs and buts get back to reality rent is dead money and as i say paying someopne elses mortgage off ( the above as an example)

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And what if they dont ?What if they rise even more? You bears are all ifs and buts get back to reality rent is dead money and as i say paying someopne elses mortgage off ( the above as an example)

No one can afford them now, let alone if they were even dearer!

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And what if they dont ?What if they rise even more? You bears are all ifs and buts get back to reality rent is dead money and as i say paying someopne elses mortgage off ( the above as an example)

Well thats about a 0.8% fall per month which is very possible and most people on this site believe it will happen and they are basing this on detailed research and opinion. Whereas, you are offering next to no insight other than a few comments from VIs who said exactly the same things in 1989 when house prices started to fall. If you work out how much you would pay off a repayment mortgage in the first 6 months (very very little) and you compare it to the chances of prices dropping 5% during that time (which i would put at at least 50%) then the maths is extremely simple which choice brings the most expected value.

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Hello, first post here, been reading a while.

Thought you might find this interesting, this is actually happening at the moment.

Location NorthWest

Person 1: £10k deposit, literally all of life savings. Has taken a second job to be able to buy a not-great 2 up, 2 down terrace house in a poor area, offered almost full asking price. Mortgaged to the max taking into account salaries from both jobs but will need also income from lodger for at least 6 months whilst she furnishes the house etc, as mortgage payments are going to be aprox 50% of take home pay. From both jobs. Gets keys tomorrow.

Person 2: has salary of 2 times person 1. Is said lodger @ £250 per month all in incl. bills. Whacks difference between measly rent and potential possible large mortgage payment each month into savings account.

Which one do you think I am?

I have tried over the last few months with no success to speak to person 1 about the sense of being a FTB right now. Would it really be so bad to rent for another year and see what happens to prices/inflation/interest rates/properties available? But no, the VIs have done an excellent job on her and she firmly believes that prices will rise ad infinitum and therefore will be completely unaffordable this time next year, given the extent to which she has had to stretch herself right now.

I have no knowledge of economics, the FTSE, sterling and dollar fluctuations, I only heard of peak oil when I came here. BUT, I do have commonsense and logic, and to me she's made probably the worst mistake of her financial life.

How any VI can dare say that its a good time for FTBs makes my blood boil. Why should I, a professional 32 years old woman, have to 'club together with 2 or 3 others in my situation' to get on the housing ladder?' Its insulting. Sure, if my partner and I combined our savings and incomes we could afford a lovely house, but fortunately he thinks the same way as me. The Great Housing Crash, Why It Is Inevitable, Debt and The High Street, and Did You Know That If Local Prices Continue To Rise At The Same Rate You Will Need £1M To Buy An Ex-Council House In My Village In 8 Yrs, are things I enjoy discussing with my peers. Not to mention the Spot Who's Been Paying Their Mortgage With Their Credit Card game.

However, with all this logic, some individuals still persist in believing that prices will continue to increase, forever. And we just have to sit tight and wait until all those individuals have thrown their money away.

Thank goodness for this site and I will continue to direct any interested parties/converts to have a look here.

Hello all. :)

And if prices stay where they are...?

Not only does debt increase as prices rise.. debt increases as more properties are bought at inflated current prices..

Look at the state of the high street in current debt levels..

Now extrapolate that forward a couple more years of more people getting into this level of debt.

There is no economic way that even current prices can be supported. Fact

hello by the way

Edited by apom

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That's a bit harsh. Yes there can be some groupthink on here, but there is also a tremendous amount of disagreement about whether or not there will even be a houseprice crash, what would constitute a houseprice crash (e.g., would ten years of no nominal and/or real growth in houseprices be a 'crash', historically speaking?), etc. And the point about the value of 'a bit of turf and a roof over your head' being factored in as a possibly measurable element to consider when comparing the price of owning vs. renting has been discussed several times on here -- you're not the first chap to make that point. You give too little credit to some very intelligent discussions that have occurred on here.

But what unites most people on here, I think, is that this website offers some useful ideas & facts to counter the otherwise un-countered idea that buying is always smarter than renting no matter what the price. It's hard to overstate how deeply this idea is lodged in the way people think about property in this country. The truth is that for most people, at a specified price point (I would say when houseprices exceed 6x average income), it makes more sense to rent than to buy, and we passed that price point sometime between 2001-2003, depending on ones area. Oh, and we all couldn't be happier that you have 'enough equity to ride out any downturn'.

jrb

yep - all good points (apart from your last sentence :) )intelligently and articulately presented which obviously shows I was a bit off beam with some of my comments about self congratulatory back slapping

cheers

Edited by Herts

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Herts, if you are an econimist, then here's 3 words for you: MEAN REVERTING MARKET.

QED.

Not only that - I'm a pedantic economist too (check your spelling)

:)

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Hi. Welcome. It is a great name.

I must admit that I used to make casual musings along the lines of your conversations in my callow youth (pre HPC), and I am ashamed to say I studied economics at Oxford and practised on Wall Street. Greed makes us all fools.

The moment I woke up, I bit my lip and felt ashamed. Just like the dotcom bubble, it all seemed so real - for about ten minutes.

..ok, I dont feel qualified to say owt' on here now...

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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