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Tired of Waiting

C M L Forecasts: Low Volumes And Price Falls

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The Council of Mortgage Lenders has published its updated forecasts for 2011 and 2012.

Bearish news from a surprising source. They've tried to spin it as much as possible, but the main points are:

- Volumes to stay low throughout 2012. It was 45,166 in April, they predict 50,000/month in 2012.

("long-run average before the financial crisis" was around 90,000/month.)

- "Analysts reckon house prices will fall slightly this year"

- "expected home repossessions to total 40,000 this year and rise to 45,000 next year from 36,000 in 2010."

Reuters News: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/01/uk-britain-mortgages-cml-idUKTRE7503EL20110601

Original CML Report: http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/publications/newsandviews/90/332

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Those are the official release figures, I wonder what they're really expecting.

Yep. These are the numbers for "public consumption"...

And they are already very bearish:

2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012

Residential property transactions, UK, 000s

901 / 859 / 886 / 840 / 900

Gross advances, £bn

253 / 143 / 136 / 140 / 150

Net advances, £bn

40 / 12 / 8 / 9 / 12

So, they forecast the mortgage availability for 2011 and 2012 to be as bad as 2009 and 2010.

The question remaining is: For how long these suckers with cash or large deposits will keep supporting house prices??

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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The Council of Mortgage Lenders has published its updated forecasts for 2011 and 2012.

(...)

Original CML Report: http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/publications/newsandviews/90/332

Update:

BBC's angle on it:

" House repossessions to rise in 2012, CML warns "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13620099

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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"Our Members are Going to Chuck People Out of their homes Unless Rates are Kept Low and you Pay to Keep them There."

Very good point CL.

And "evil Tories' " fault, of course.

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I know you all love my EA stories... but an EA I was talking with today was telling me that they had been getting quite a few repossessions come through to list then, at the last moment, they repossession companies were informing them that the banks had pulled out of repossessing and hence to not market the property.

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I know you all love my EA stories... but an EA I was talking with today was telling me that they had been getting quite a few repossessions come through to list then, at the last moment, they repossession companies were informing them that the banks had pulled out of repossessing and hence to not market the property.

Quite possible. The "soft-landing" operation must have many fronts. Avoid repossessions must be a top one. The government and the banks must be working together, plus the BoE and the FSA.

I am upset with the slow landing, as I am already "Tired of Waiting", but these suckers buying cash or with large deposits are saving the banks, the economy, and the country actually. So, we'll have to wai a few more years... Sh!t.

I am in the market for a longer term lease, 2-3 years, on a nicer house. I'll wait in more comfortable surroundings.

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I know you all love my EA stories... but an EA I was talking with today was telling me that they had been getting quite a few repossessions come through to list then, at the last moment, they repossession companies were informing them that the banks had pulled out of repossessing and hence to not market the property.

This makes me so angry :angry:.

Whenever I borrowed money for a house, car, whatever, I always hoped that all would go well and that I'd be able to keep and pay off in full whatever I'd just bought. It never occurred to be that I'd get let off a debt I couldn't afford. What has gone wrong with the world? Why are we paying for these feckless morons mortgages?

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This makes me so angry :angry:.

Whenever I borrowed money for a house, car, whatever, I always hoped that all would go well and that I'd be able to keep and pay off in full whatever I'd just bought. It never occurred to be that I'd get let off a debt I couldn't afford. What has gone wrong with the world? Why are we paying for these feckless morons mortgages?

GORDON-BROWN_457925a.jpg

Sorry.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Quite possible. The "soft-landing" operation must have many fronts. Avoid repossessions must be a top one. The government and the banks must be working together, plus the BoE and the FSA.

I am upset with the slow landing, as I am already "Tired of Waiting", but these suckers buying cash or with large deposits are saving the banks, the economy, and the country actually. So, we'll have to wai a few more years... Sh!t.

I am in the market for a longer term lease, 2-3 years, on a nicer house. I'll wait in more comfortable surroundings.

There is only so mch cash. As the cash reserves are reduced so does potenital lending against it.

Then there is the move of funds offshore if the interest rates are ept artificially low.

Everything they do will have a knoc on effect one way or another and a lot it will backfire.

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There is only so mch cash.

I know. But... how much?

There is a lot, a lot of money in Britain, including a lot of old (and very old) money in Britain.

But I don't know how much. Probably more than ... we would like?

It reminds me of that old saying: "Markets can remain irrational for longer than we can remain solvent"...

Just adapt to house prices / housing costs.

Sorry, I must be in a negative mood... :(

As the cash reserves are reduced so does potenital lending against it.

Then there is the move of funds offshore if the interest rates are ept artificially low.

Everything they do will have a knoc on effect one way or another and a lot it will backfire.

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Sorry.

that image reminds me of Mugabe - sheer delusional power (still holds it over us from the political grave)

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I know. But... how much?

There is a lot, a lot of money in Britain, including a lot of old (and very old) money in Britain.

But I don't know how much. Probably more than ... we would like?

It reminds me of that old saying: "Markets can remain irrational for longer than we can remain solvent"...

Just adapt to house prices / housing costs.

Sorry, I must be in a negative mood... :(

but old money didn't get there by crap investing - it will stay out of this property market

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but old money didn't get there by crap investing - it will stay out of this property market

I hope you are right. But around here it feels like these old feckers have enough to buy "a few properties, just in case", and still have lots left over. My problem is that prices in the best areas of the southeast, like here, are still not falling. I know they will fall, eventually, but the delay is very, very annoying. My only consolation is that these people will lose some of that old money.

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I hope you are right. But around here it feels like these old feckers have enough to buy "a few properties, just in case", and still have lots left over. My problem is that prices in the best areas of the southeast, like here, are still not falling. I know they will fall, eventually, but the delay is very, very annoying. My only consolation is that these people will lose some of that old money.

that does not really fit my definition of old money - only 1 or 2 generations of it since the great depression is meaningless, they have gambled on property for the last 70 years and done very well, that is fluke, and they will shortly be found out

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that does not really fit my definition of old money - only 1 or 2 generations of it since the great depression is meaningless, they have gambled on property for the last 70 years and done very well, that is fluke, and they will shortly be found out

I quite like the sound of old money! I am too new and don't have any in my wallet! I would like a jar of half-crowns with Queen Victoria on them! :blink:

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that does not really fit my definition of old money - only 1 or 2 generations of it since the great depression is meaningless, they have gambled on property for the last 70 years and done very well, that is fluke, and they will shortly be found out

I think this family has been around here for quite a few centuries. (1066?)

http://www.arundelcastle.org/_pages/03_visitor_info.htm

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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