Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

A report on why the future for the UK economy and it's currency looks very dangerous indeed. It is written financial brokers Tullett Prebon and is ominously entitled 'No way out?'.

No Way Out?

It is 12 pages long, so might take 20-30 mins to read and digest, but if you really want to learn something about where this country is going it is worth more than a months worth of pointless banter on HPC. Lots of very good graphs which pointedly illustrate why the housing market only has one way to go, amongst other things.

It pretty much encapsulates everything I believe to be true about the state of the economy and the dim future for sterling and all those who sail in her. Hence my fervent belief in the ownership of precious metals to weather the storm and most likely profit handsomely from it.

Here is an excerpt from the conclusion:

The UK is already showing unmistakeable signs of economic deterioration. Real incomes are

declining, a trend to which individuals are leveraged by the high and increasing cost of such

non-discretionaries as food, fuel and utility bills. To make matters worse, interest rate rises seem

inevitable, either for policy (inflation) reasons or because of bond market jitters.

If the outlook is indeed for low growth, the government’s growth-dependant deficit reduction plan

won’t work. And, if the plan were to come unstitched, sterling would come under severe pressure,

exacerbating inflationary pressures and compounding the misgivings of international investors

holding British debt.

Further analysis of the very worrying economic and fiscal outlook for the UK will be set out in a

forthcoming report, Thinking the Unthinkable, which will present the conclusions of the ‘Armageddon

Project’.

Meanwhile, it would be by no means unreasonable to conclude that, short of almost unthinkably

drastic restructuring, there may be no way out of Britain’s low-growth, high-debt trap.

This report is not simple scaremongering, the facts presented thoroughly back up the fears of the authors.

Anyway, enjoy. :)

BTW: I am aware this was posted by someone, somewhere on HPC over the bank holiday, but I don't think it received the attention it deserved thanks to low readership on the weekend, so decided to go for a re-run.

Edited by General Congreve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...I think this is the third time this article has been posted. It's a good read, but each time the misuse of 'dependant' has seriously annoyed me.

Oh yeah, look at that, correct spelling in the 2nd paragraph, but then incorrect a subsequent 10 times in the report. That's the UK education system for you though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah the end?

:)

I posted that this was the third thread on the subject.

And then read GC's BTW.

I thought I'd save everyone the time by removing the pointless post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh yeah, look at that, correct spelling in the 2nd paragraph, but then incorrect a subsequent 10 times in the report. That's the UK education system for you though.

Just finished reading it and can distill the report down for those who don't have the time, we're so f**ked its almost laughable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just finished reading it and can distill the report down for those who don't have the time, we're so f**ked its almost laughable.

P.S. The notional value of your pension, your house and your savings are f**ked too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...it reveals the weak notion of these lefty socialists who think this country is rich....what a fools paradise they live in.... :rolleyes:

prepare for more green taxes , the lunatics are running the asylum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

doesn't mention £-devakluation as a way out

providing you aren't geared and have real assets linked to foreign growth markets (including PMs if that is your thing I suppose) then it is not a disaster for you; public sector with large mortgage for example, looks scary - I like this bit:

"Another three big sectors (health, education and public administration and defence) are necessarily

ex-growth now that the expansion of public spending is over."

but this bit is questionable:

"And, if the plan were to come unstitched, sterling would come under severe pressure,

exacerbating inflationary pressures and compounding the misgivings of international investors

holding British debt."

since there are inflation-adjusters in UK gilts, covering under-reporting of inflation in the indices etc

as to a gilt-strike, maybe, not my problem if I het made redundant myself as I don't have a mortgage

edit: we have discussed gilt strikes before - gilt owners, institutions doint it in the name of conservative capital holders - don't give a sh*t, their 75 year old customers are so capital-risk averse it is scary, they still refuse to worry about gilts, they will get creamed and only realise 10 years later

Edited by Si1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An interesting read, thanks for posting.

But here's the puzzle. The facts in this report (and others like it) are all out there in the public domain, in other words this is all common knowledge, but the UK continues to satisfactorily sell its debt, in fact gilt yields are actually dropping.

So the people who are actually buying British debt are doing so in the full knowledge of the negative outlook painted in this report, but they aren't convinced.

Why?

What's the alternative scenario that they find more persausive?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An interesting read, thanks for posting.

But here's the puzzle. The facts in this report (and others like it) are all out there in the public domain, in other words this is all common knowledge, but the UK continues to satisfactorily sell its debt, in fact gilt yields are actually dropping.

So the people who are actually buying British debt are doing so in the full knowledge of the negative outlook painted in this report, but they aren't convinced.

Why?

What's the alternative scenario that they find more persausive?

stupid-people-posters-stupid-people-shouldnt-breed.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers General for posting this.

Will be interesting to read the Armageddon report due in this month. Just a shame that the reports of this nature (and our own HPC outlook) are in no way replicated by reports in the media about the economy - even on Newsnight last night with Crusty.

Then again the sensible money is always long gone by the time the masses get wind of anything. My old grandad always used to swear by reading the FT because of this, despite being a mechanic at Ford.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An interesting read, thanks for posting.

But here's the puzzle. The facts in this report (and others like it) are all out there in the public domain, in other words this is all common knowledge, but the UK continues to satisfactorily sell its debt, in fact gilt yields are actually dropping.

So the people who are actually buying British debt are doing so in the full knowledge of the negative outlook painted in this report, but they aren't convinced.

Why?

What's the alternative scenario that they find more persausive?

just habit - the demographic demanding gilt-investments (if not buying them directly as they are held by large institutions) is being irrational and very asset-averse

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The harsh reality is that the overwhelming bulk of private borrowing during the Brown era was channelled into immediate consumption

Yep, we spent like drunken sailors in a brothel :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.