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Official In Northern Ireland Prices Have Dropped 49.9% From Peak

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Is that due to NI's reliance on public sector jobs, or is there another reason? What am I missing that I don't understand why there, but nowhere near that sort of a drop in mainland Britain as yet (if ever)?

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In the first three months of the year, the average home in Northern Ireland was £115,093, according to the lender’s non-seasonally adjusted quarterly data. This contrasted with an average of £229,590 in the second quarter of 2007.

It's a big percentage drop, but in absolute terms they are still as overpriced relative to local incomes as the rest of the UK.

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Is that due to NI's reliance on public sector jobs, or is there another reason? What am I missing that I don't understand why there, but nowhere near that sort of a drop in mainland Britain as yet (if ever)?

The bubble in ni was far more severe - on the way up, and now on the way down

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What are the mortgage arrears stats like?

Negative equity numbers?

Accurate data is almost impossible to find in England, as the Land Registry refuse to include the sold prices of Repossessed properties in their data.

I assume this crooked flawed system also applies to NI?

It's a big percentage drop, but in absolute terms they are still as overpriced relative to local incomes as the rest of the UK.

The Bottom has not been reached. Nowhere near. In just 4 years? That does not tally with previous cycles. Long way to drop yet on the fair isle of Hibernia.

Edited by Dan1

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Speculators and investors drove the markets to 100% growth in prices between 2006 - 2007. These speculators have now exited the market and prices are coming back to 2004/5 levels.

The market must come back to affordability for FTBuyers for a healthy market to resume. With job cuts and frozen wages entry level houses must come down to affordable levels.

Once the lower end of the market starts to work then the top end of the market will slowly slide down to meet it.

I see, do you think the mainland will follow to any significant extent?

The bubble in ni was far more severe - on the way up, and now on the way down

Wonder how it is all going to play out, mainland so far is far too resilient for omfort

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I see, do you think the mainland will follow to any significant extent?

Wonder how it is all going to play out, mainland so far is far too resilient for omfort

As far as I understand, aren't many areas of mainland UK, such as the North of England and Wales, dropping like a stone? These would be the 'equivalent' of NI in terms of average incomes, public sector employment and so on. The SE of England will always keep the national stats up and I think there it will take a significant hike in interest rates to see any difference. There are still plenty of people about with plenty of money, who did very well over the last decade and didn't really experience a recession - sometimes this tends to be forgotten - and they want to live in the SE of England.

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As far as I understand, aren't many areas of mainland UK, such as the North of England and Wales, dropping like a stone? These would be the 'equivalent' of NI in terms of average incomes, public sector employment and so on. The SE of England will always keep the national stats up and I think there it will take a significant hike in interest rates to see any difference. There are still plenty of people about with plenty of money, who did very well over the last decade and didn't really experience a recession - sometimes this tends to be forgotten - and they want to live in the SE of England.

Yes.

In parts of the North East, for example, prices have dropped by over 30% from peak. Trouble is, there's no bloody work there otherwise I would move back right now to one of the small towns and buy a house cash.

rock and a hard place....

Edited by tallguy

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I always knew the 50% off crowd were living in a fantasy world. They'll never let it happen.

Edited by Dorkins

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I despaired in 2006 when I saw packed estate agents and nightly news bulletins of gazumping by huge amounts. Last minute demands for an extra 60K for a bog standard house.

I watched estate agents getting snottier in their approach to customers as if they were the elite path to untold wealth and had to be respected and their every word taken as gospel.

Nightly news bulletins of smiling presenters telling everyone that they were getting more wealthy by the day. Why work when your house was going up in value by 100 quid a day.

Every cafe and shop was full of people discussing how much their house was worth and having expensive holidays and flash cars on the back of it.

NI seemed to go into a feeding frenzy - people camping out and begging to be allowed to buy off plan flats for outrageous sums.

Then it suddenly stopped and people started noticing that the emperor had no clothes and so the wise got out quick and the foolish are dropping their prices year by year.

I joined this site in January 2007 because I could not understand how such a bubble within a bubble could happen. I found the answers here and stayed on to encourage FTBs not to get a millstone mortgage and a lifetime of debt slavery.

Sounds familiar ;)

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Dream on. <_<

Patience. If it can happen in the massive and wealthy US market, anything is possible. With the credit crisis far from over, people up to their eyeballs in debt, and incomes stagnant or falling (private sector anyway) due to overcapacity and globalization, there's still lots of motivation, time and opportunity for all remaining housing bubbles to deflate back to historic averages.

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Yes.

In parts of the North East, for example, prices have dropped by over 30% from peak. Trouble is, there's no bloody work there otherwise I would move back right now to one of the small towns and buy a house cash.

rock and a hard place....

Not much change in Newcastle. Prices maybe down a few % over the last year, but nothing that would constitute a crash. Or, for that matter, a moderate fall. This despite Newcastle council culling several hundred workers. Tho I suppose that's a drop in the ocean really.

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Not much change in Newcastle. Prices maybe down a few % over the last year, but nothing that would constitute a crash. Or, for that matter, a moderate fall. This despite Newcastle council culling several hundred workers. Tho I suppose that's a drop in the ocean really.

I'm referring to ars*-end-of-beyond little towns that time forgot such as Skelton, Loftus, Marske, Redcar and Middlesbrough

Edited by tallguy

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I always knew the 50% off crowd were living in a fantasy world. They'll never let it happen.

Oh, it will happen Dorkins, it will happen.

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Patience. If it can happen in the massive and wealthy US market, anything is possible. With the credit crisis far from over, people up to their eyeballs in debt, and incomes stagnant or falling (private sector anyway) due to overcapacity and globalization, there's still lots of motivation, time and opportunity for all remaining housing bubbles to deflate back to historic averages.

....further falling property prices can only exacerbate it. :rolleyes:

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I'm referring to ars*-end-of-beyond little towns that time forgot such as Skelton, Loftus, Marske, Redcar and Middlesbrough

Oh yeah, I didn't mean to contradict you - I know what you're saying is correct. Just I guess I was adding that the crash 'oop North' isn't as widespread as some might think.

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I joined this site in January 2007 because I could not understand how such a bubble within a bubble could happen. I found the answers here and stayed on to encourage FTBs not to get a millstone mortgage and a lifetime of debt slavery.

I can still remember stories of young couples feeling 'relieved they got on the ladder' after paying £175K or so for a terrace in some of the less salubrious parts of Belfast.....awful.

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There seems to be a lot of denial amongst vendors in NI. I use Cookstown County Tyrone as my window into that market. My Right Move sample there contains 232 residential properties including development sites. There are just 35 price reductions. Of the 36 longest on the market, from 70 weeks to 135 weeks, just 8 have had the price reduced. Taken together with the price drop statistics I suppose this shows that even mass delusion can't stand in the way of the market finding its' level.

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Oh yeah, I didn't mean to contradict you - I know what you're saying is correct. Just I guess I was adding that the crash 'oop North' isn't as widespread as some might think.

Absolutely

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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