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As I see it...

The established Western powers have been living beyond their means for hundred's of years (pays for war - victor gets the spoils etc).

Current global monetary policy seems to be all about getting countries subsumed into the global system (with a great credit rating for debt).

With each new "democracy", the capacity to take on global debt is utilised for world growth and so it goes on.....After all isn't this the best reason for the EU to expand?

Each countiries capacity to take on debt is "mined".

I'm not saying this is a bad thing - It could be argued that it lessens war and promotes wealth, (old eastern block/ China etc).

To be clear here, I'm talking about wealth being how VI portreys it (pensinos, savings, house value).

Also, lets not forget the compounding capacity for the new economic beneficiaries in each new democracy to take on debt.

Anyway, My point is that world debts are increasing, but it is still sustainable. We are nowhere near breaking point.

IMO, there is still scope for "global debt lading" to continue until well after I am gone and so the Western powers survive - and I'm all for that!

Now, If I'm right, the tin foil hat brigade is just plain wrong - a bit like the nutter revising his date for Rapture after getting it wrong.

Keep a steady head and look for Growth - it will come - but maybe not in street near you.

The truth is, if you;re young and flexible enough and you really want to make money, move to where the wealth will be....

On the other hand, if you're past 35, with little equity and don't want to move, you're f*cked.

What I'm trying to say is that this means that all those that have "made" their profit through house i.e. me - won't be losing it.

Any non home owners need to be careful about property shaudenfeude.

IMO, its more than likely the joke will be on the non home owner for NOT buying a house when they could.

After all, its likely that credit will get worse for those with no equity - but relatively easier for those already on the ladder with equity. In the end, a mortgage is paid off after 25 years, but renting is fo life....

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As I see it.bt.

Anyway, My point is that world debts are increasing, but it is still sustainable. We are nowhere near breaking point.

IMO, there is still scope for "global debt lading" to continue until well after I am gone and so the Western powers survive - and I'm all for that!

Now, If I'm right, the tin foil hat brigade is just plain wrong - a bit like the nutter revising his date for Rapture after getting it wrong.

Keep a steady head and look for Growth - it will come - but maybe not in street near you.

The truth is, if you;re young and flexible enough and you really want to make money, move to where the wealth will be....

On the other hand, if you're past 35, with little equity and don't want to move, you're f*cked.

What I'm trying to say is that this means that all those that have "made" their profit through house i.e. me - won't be losing it.

Any non home owners need to be careful about property shaudenfeude.

IMO, its more than likely the joke will be on the non home owner for NOT buying a house when they could.

After all, its likely that credit will get worse for those with no equity - but relatively easier for those already on the ladder with equity. In the end, a mortgage is paid off after 25 years, but renting is fo life....

are you mad or stupid?

the money must come from somewhere, debt is not an economy, they know it, the game is up.

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are you mad or stupid?

the money must come from somewhere, debt is not an economy, they know it, the game is up.

When you say, the "money must come from somewhere", I'm saying it comes from the debt of other countries as they "expand".

Subsequently, this debt is sold as an asset .

Put it this way, pension funds will be fine but if you live in the UK and you don't have money now - you're in trouble.

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When you say, the "money must come from somewhere", I'm saying it comes from the debt of other countries as they "expand".

Subsequently, this debt is sold as an asset .

Put it this way, pension funds will be fine but if you live in the UK and you don't have money now - you're in trouble.

How will pension funds be OK? Total zero sum game - juice the capital value and trash the annuities, moreover that reduced annutity income is actively being eroded in real value by inflation that is about double (or more) CPI.

Going to have to get very lucky to beat that scenario.

Edited by OnlyMe

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As I see it...

The established Western powers have been living beyond their means for hundred's of years (pays for war - victor gets the spoils etc).

Current global monetary policy seems to be all about getting countries subsumed into the global system (with a great credit rating for debt).

With each new "democracy", the capacity to take on global debt is utilised for world growth and so it goes on.....After all isn't this the best reason for the EU to expand?

Each countiries capacity to take on debt is "mined".

I'm not saying this is a bad thing - It could be argued that it lessens war and promotes wealth, (old eastern block/ China etc).

To be clear here, I'm talking about wealth being how VI portreys it (pensinos, savings, house value).

Also, lets not forget the compounding capacity for the new economic beneficiaries in each new democracy to take on debt.

Anyway, My point is that world debts are increasing, but it is still sustainable. We are nowhere near breaking point.

IMO, there is still scope for "global debt lading" to continue until well after I am gone and so the Western powers survive - and I'm all for that!

Now, If I'm right, the tin foil hat brigade is just plain wrong - a bit like the nutter revising his date for Rapture after getting it wrong.

Keep a steady head and look for Growth - it will come - but maybe not in street near you.

The truth is, if you;re young and flexible enough and you really want to make money, move to where the wealth will be....

On the other hand, if you're past 35, with little equity and don't want to move, you're f*cked.

What I'm trying to say is that this means that all those that have "made" their profit through house i.e. me - won't be losing it.

Any non home owners need to be careful about property shaudenfeude.

IMO, its more than likely the joke will be on the non home owner for NOT buying a house when they could.

After all, its likely that credit will get worse for those with no equity - but relatively easier for those already on the ladder with equity. In the end, a mortgage is paid off after 25 years, but renting is fo life....

You can't eat equity my dear. What do they teach people in schools here?

Debts are not sustainable when are taking on more debt just to pay interest, because of something Leonhard Euler so elegantly discovered. Exponential growth.

And you fail to account for credit cycles, deflation, inflation, or hyperinflation.

You fail to understand the significance of the central banking system, and you do not understand what credit is, and how they wield it.

They (central banks) are not 'western' and have their own agenda, have powers which usurp governments, international ideological laws, religious edict, and common sense.

I put it to you that our 'record' growth is directly attributed to the discovery of North Sea oil and central banks issuing the UK credit.

And for us... well, Britain is running out of energy

How's that bode for your thesis?

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How will pension funds be OK? Total zero sum game - juice the capital value and trash the annuities, moreover that reduced annutity income is actively being eroded in real value by inflation that is about double (or more) CPI.

Going to have to get very lucky to beat that scenario.

I meant it to be relative and a subjective comment.

Pensions being OK is meant to say that there will be something back in retirement when compared with what the state will provide. I don't for one minute propose it as a great return on personal wealth - just merely OK.

I'm trying to say that we will not see financial meltdown in our life time.

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And you fail to account for credit cycles, deflation, inflation, or hyperinflation.

and the human psyche. the op is an exec spreadsheet post.

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When you say, the "money must come from somewhere", I'm saying it comes from the debt of other countries as they "expand".

Subsequently, this debt is sold as an asset .

Put it this way, pension funds will be fine but if you live in the UK and you don't have money now - you're in trouble.

money is the swapping of wealth for a loan with interest.

Thats where money comes from.

It comes from wealth, therefore, to pay it back, you need to create some wealth.

The current problem is NOT money, its CREDIT issued in the hope money can be found to pay it down.

The FEDS have no problem with MONEY...they issue it all the time....the BANKS have a problem getting their CREDIT Settled...And Governments are reluctant to cash in the wealth to pay for their debts.

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When you say, the "money must come from somewhere", I'm saying it comes from the debt of other countries as they "expand".

Subsequently, this debt is sold as an asset .

Put it this way, pension funds will be fine but if you live in the UK and you don't have money now - you're in trouble.

right...... so where do we get the money from to lend them, assuming that is what you mean. seeing as we're already way past our own credit limit.

we have to generate real wealth by making goods, adding value and selling them to those that have money, once you have done that and are achieving a return sufficient to more than pay of your own debts you can then consider lending to someone else, but those days are long gone for the UK. Wages and overheads have to be miniscule by today's standards for that to happen.

The banks reserve ratios have been stretched to breaking point, if property values fall then the ratios deteriorate further commonly known as the death spiral, if property values, inflation and then interest rates rise then people need higher wages and will ultimately lose their jobs because of globalization. Which again leads to the death spiral.

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You can't eat equity my dear. What do they teach people in schools here?

Debts are not sustainable when are taking on more debt just to pay interest, because of something Leonhard Euler so elegantly discovered. Exponential growth.

And you fail to account for credit cycles, deflation, inflation, or hyperinflation.

You fail to understand the significance of the central banking system, and you do not understand what credit is, and how they wield it.

They (central banks) are not 'western' and have their own agenda, have powers which usurp governments, international ideological laws, religious edict, and common sense.

I put it to you that our 'record' growth is directly attributed to the discovery of North Sea oil and central banks issuing the UK credit.

And for us... well, Britain is running out of energy

How's that bode for your thesis?

I agree with everything you say. I'm just saying we are far from the end game for what's important - the time we have got left until we die.

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I meant it to be relative and a subjective comment.

Pensions being OK is meant to say that there will be something back in retirement when compared with what the state will provide. I don't for one minute propose it as a great return on personal wealth - just merely OK.

I'm trying to say that we will not see financial meltdown in our life time.

article-0-05DDBE39000005DC-225_468x431.jpg

"If house prices drop, I'll eat my hat"

gordon-brown_280_799527a%5B1%5D.jpg

"no more boom and bust"

Careful where you get your advice, that's all I can say.

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right...... so where do we get the money from to lend them, assuming that is what you mean. seeing as we're already way past our own credit limit.

we have to generate real wealth by making goods, adding value and selling them to those that have money, once you have done that and are achieving a return sufficient to more than pay of your own debts you can then consider lending to someone else, but those days are long gone for the UK. Wages and overheads have to be miniscule by today's standards for that to happen.

The banks reserve ratios have been stretched to breaking point, if property values fall then the ratios deteriorate further commonly known as the death spiral, if property values, inflation and then interest rates rise then people need higher wages and will ultimately lose their jobs because of globalization. Which again leads to the death spiral.

I agree with what you say also - All I'm saying is that you and I will not see the end conclusion in our life time.

Death spiral = emotive nonsense = you will be dead before you see it.

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I agree with what you say also - All I'm saying is that you and I will not see the end conclusion in our life time.

Death spiral = emotive nonsense = you will be dead before you see it.

You could be right, I could walk out of my flat in 30 minutes and get hit by a big red bus....

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The US will remain a global superpower because

They can grow all their own food

They could supply all their own energy needs

And they have a huge surplus of land

The continental United States could easily support 1 billion people +

So the US economy will continue to grow for at least the next 100-200 years IMO.

India and China, however, have serious problems which can only probably be addressed by huge reductions in their respective populations.

:blink:

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You could be right, I could walk out of my flat in 30 minutes and get hit by a big red bus....

Perhaps you should stay in then?

:unsure:

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You could be right, I could walk out of my flat in 30 minutes and get hit by a big red bus....

I know you're trying to take the proverbial.. but you know what? You're absolutely right and that is what I've been trying to say.

The point is - you don't worry about being run over the bus (like some sort of demented looney dodging the pavement cracks).

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I meant it to be relative and a subjective comment.

Pensions being OK is meant to say that there will be something back in retirement when compared with what the state will provide. I don't for one minute propose it as a great return on personal wealth - just merely OK.

I'm trying to say that we will not see financial meltdown in our life time.

we are living on the knife edge of financial melt down as we sit here, in fact I could argue it has already happened effectively.

a relatively innocuous event could trigger the end game at any time.

Spain, Greece, UK, US, the middle east are all sources of potential triggers.

The IMF and ECB, bless em will continue to desperately keep the bubble inflated, but holes are popping up everywhere, they are trying to plug the holes, but they are still losing much more air than they are pumping in.

The nations that are then supplying more debt to the pump are racking up larger and large debts themselves and at some point someone will say enough is enough, either the people will says too many cuts, or the lenders will say you already owe us too much money.

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I agree with what you say also - All I'm saying is that you and I will not see the end conclusion in our life time.

Death spiral = emotive nonsense = you will be dead before you see it.

Are you suggesting renting is a hold on life?

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As I see it...

The established Western powers have been living beyond their means for hundred's of years (pays for war - victor gets the spoils etc).

Current global monetary policy seems to be all about getting countries subsumed into the global system (with a great credit rating for debt).

With each new "democracy", the capacity to take on global debt is utilised for world growth and so it goes on.....After all isn't this the best reason for the EU to expand?

Each countiries capacity to take on debt is "mined".

I'm not saying this is a bad thing - It could be argued that it lessens war and promotes wealth, (old eastern block/ China etc).

To be clear here, I'm talking about wealth being how VI portreys it (pensinos, savings, house value).

Also, lets not forget the compounding capacity for the new economic beneficiaries in each new democracy to take on debt.

Anyway, My point is that world debts are increasing, but it is still sustainable. We are nowhere near breaking point.

IMO, there is still scope for "global debt lading" to continue until well after I am gone and so the Western powers survive - and I'm all for that!

Now, If I'm right, the tin foil hat brigade is just plain wrong - a bit like the nutter revising his date for Rapture after getting it wrong.

Keep a steady head and look for Growth - it will come - but maybe not in street near you.

The truth is, if you;re young and flexible enough and you really want to make money, move to where the wealth will be....

On the other hand, if you're past 35, with little equity and don't want to move, you're f*cked.

What I'm trying to say is that this means that all those that have "made" their profit through house i.e. me - won't be losing it.

Any non home owners need to be careful about property shaudenfeude.

IMO, its more than likely the joke will be on the non home owner for NOT buying a house when they could.

After all, its likely that credit will get worse for those with no equity - but relatively easier for those already on the ladder with equity. In the end, a mortgage is paid off after 25 years, but renting is fo life....

May I ask what you do to support yourself, the entire global system is a card tower waiting to fall over. Equity means nothing cos a house is only worth what someone is willing and capable of paying for it. The entire uk economy is based around what services we can sell to each other and the world. If the world suddenly cannot afford our services and there is no demand here then the pack of cards will come down and your equity will be worth nothing if people can only afford to pay 20% of what you paid and you need the money cos your pension fund has lost all its money in the piiigs and government debt has been downgraded cos tax take has collapsed.

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The US will remain a global superpower because

They can grow all their own food

They could supply all their own energy needs

And they have a huge surplus of land

The continental United States could easily support 1 billion people +

So the US economy will continue to grow for at least the next 100-200 years IMO.

India and China, however, have serious problems which can only probably be addressed by huge reductions in their respective populations.

:blink:

if this were to be true, why are they net importers, why do they have such a huge deficit and why are they so desperate to control sources of oil around the globe?

Why are they so desperate to control immigration,

don't answer, your view of the US is extremely optimistic at best, the US dollar is toast and there is no way back.

the real problem, and this applies to the UK as well, is the standard of living they have become accustomed to, yes the US and the UK could be self supporting but the standard of living would have to drop back to the stone age. :ph34r:

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May I ask what you do to support yourself, the entire global system is a card tower waiting to fall over. Equity means nothing cos a house is only worth what someone is willing and capable of paying for it. The entire uk economy is based around what services we can sell to each other and the world. If the world suddenly cannot afford our services and there is no demand here then the pack of cards will come down and your equity will be worth nothing if people can only afford to pay 20% of what you paid and you need the money cos your pension fund has lost all its money in the piiigs and government debt has been downgraded cos tax take has collapsed.

I can only answer by saying how I support myself.

ATM I'm doing pretty well (and I'm very glad of it). I see a good future and happy retirement.

I don't see your scenario happening in my lifetime.

You've said these things - you prove it - put your mouth on the line and say when you think it will happen.

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the real problem, and this applies to the UK as well, is the standard of living they have become accustomed to, yes the US and the UK could be self supporting but the standard of living would have to drop back to the stone age. :ph34r:

So when are we going back to the Stone age then?

If you're so sure of what you say - please give us all a date when you think this will happen?

My point is - it won't happen in your lifetime.

If your opinion is different - give a date and why

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So when are we going back to the Stone age then?

If you're so sure of what you say - please give us all a date when you think this will happen?

My point is - it won't happen in your lifetime.

If your opinion is different - give a date and why

a suggestion from Germany:

After the war, Germany was broke... That's true. But the mark was cheap. It seemed like a terrific investment opportunity. Most people believed Germany would find a way to finance its debts. We imagine foreign investors at the time said, "Oh, hyperinflation could never happen in Germany..." And so speculators pumped another $2 billion of additional credit into Germany. Then came trouble. Germany's main creditor (France) refused to renegotiate the terms of the armistice. And the German people lost confidence in their own government. The people didn't want to pay the debts. Assassinations began to occur, most notably the murder of Walther Rathenau – the foreign minister. Investors lost confidence in the country. They abandoned the mark.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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