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N.a.m.a Bank In R.o.i Set To Offload Its Uk Properties In London And South East

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€16bn @ ~€160k per property would be 100k houses (assuming for simplicity that it is all residential). There are ~8-10m houses in London/SE, so that is less than 1% of the total stock. Probably too small to have much of an impact.

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€16bn @ ~€160k per property would be 100k houses (assuming for simplicity that it is all residential). There are ~8-10m houses in London/SE, so that is less than 1% of the total stock. Probably too small to have much of an impact.

How many houses are sold each year? If it's one in one hundred then you've added an extra 10% or so. That could make a difference.

EDIT: month to year

Edited by (Blizzard)

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NAMA wanted to exit the UK property in the next two to three years as this market was far more "liquid'' than the Irish market.

Interesting....

Still "liquid" in the UK at the moment, so offer a discount to get out while you can, perhaps?

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€16bn @ ~€160k per property would be 100k houses (assuming for simplicity that it is all residential). There are ~8-10m houses in London/SE, so that is less than 1% of the total stock. Probably too small to have much of an impact.

Yes but not all of those will be sold in a given timeframe. To understand the impact on the market you need to know the timeframe of the sell of (two to three years according to the article) and look at how many houses you would normally expect to be sold over that time. It could represent a significant percentage increase in supply.

However, I suspect the real importance of this is the fact that NAMA are selling at all. The article seems to suggest that others are selling their stocks as well, they mentioned Lloyds and RBS. If these banks are selling off their stacks (and we have seen a lot of 'empty' houses on the market around Bath and Bristol) then at the very least prices are unlikely to rise anytime soon. It also suggests that the banks are expecting more bad news, perhaps a soveriegn bond default, and are trying to convert liabilities / assets to cash inorder to better resist the next sh*t storm.

This ain't over yet, not by along way...

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It also suggests that the banks are expecting more bad news, perhaps a soveriegn bond default, and are trying to convert liabilities / assets to cash inorder to better resist the next sh*t storm.

This ain't over yet, not by along way...

Yes, I agree.

A case of the "big boys" getting rid of their assets now because they foresee big trouble ahead, I reckon.

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I know of one undeveloped site in London whose owners owe an Irish bank 45 million plus and they are in administration. Difficult to say what its worth but nothing like 45 million £

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oh do come on!!

this sort of thing is obviously going to happen and all the banks are going to do it, they have to off load before poor old Joe Public realizes whats going on.

I struggle to understand how people can think that there is any other end game here.

There will be a huge devaluation eventually come what may, the banks are sitting on too much debt secured on phantom asset values.

The real key thing is that no money is being generated, just more and more debt, all over europe, this has two effects, one, people have to pay more and more money just paying it back and two there is more and more competition for the money being lent leading to higher borrowing costs.

Unless economies and govt budgets turn to surplus, there will be a very bad ending.

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€16bn @ ~€160k per property would be 100k houses (assuming for simplicity that it is all residential). There are ~8-10m houses in London/SE, so that is less than 1% of the total stock. Probably too small to have much of an impact.

I'd say an extra 100k house hitting the Market would be quite significant. Especially as they would be forces sales!

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I think for simplicity it is worth assuming that it is virtually all commercial. Because I think that is what it is.

Agreed the vast majority is commercial or developer scale residential. Only developers or Prop COs got sucked into NAMA. You effectively had to be in default to the tune of €15m+ to get sucked in.

Includes Battersea Power Station (valued at 750m) + lots of hotels and offices inside the circle line

Edited by koala_bear

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I think for simplicity it is worth assuming that it is virtually all commercial. Because I think that is what it is.

Yup. Any impact on the housing market is going to be via reduced lending as the banks get hit with more bad debts. If Greece does default, which is looking increasingly likely, the banks will get hurt. As I have said before the bailout was not about bailing out Greece, it was about saving the banks, notably German and French banks, but also some Brit banks.

When Greece goes down, others are likely to follow IMO. In Spain the protests are significant if understated (reported) at this stage. Sooner or later the politicians will be held to book and when that starts to happen they will be less willing to protect their friends the bankers and bond holders. We've had a Arab spring how about an European Autumn...

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€16bn @ ~€160k per property would be 100k houses (assuming for simplicity that it is all residential). There are ~8-10m houses in London/SE, so that is less than 1% of the total stock. Probably too small to have much of an impact.

At the moment national turnover is about 2% of housing stock per year. 2% of 10 million is 200,0000. So 100.000 would double the current turnover. I think that will make a difference.

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Found this article from Jan - nice little summary of the sequence of events at the bottom after a "where are they now" article on the perpetrators....

http://www.irishexam...ykfauauey/rss2/

(every time I look at Ireland I am just stunned at the sums...but mind you I get the feeling that information isn't quite so freely available here)

Thanks for the link.

So the UK (E&W actually) is now the leading destination for jurisdiction shoppers in divorce, libel and bankruptcy. Plus it devalues its currency at the drop of a hat. Plus London sucks in non-doms like a porn starlet.

Lovely country, great neighbour.

ps. part of the reason for unfreedom of information is in court rules:

39.2

(1) The general rule is that a hearing is to be in public.

(2) The requirement for a hearing to be in public does not require the court to make special arrangements for accommodating members of the public.

(3) A hearing, or any part of it, may be in private if –

it involves confidential information (including information relating to personal financial matters) and publicity would damage that confidentiality

http://webarchive.na...39.htm#IDATK3KC

Edited by okaycuckoo

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proof that banks have been keeping posssessions off the market...quite illegally in my humble opinion.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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