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rantnrave

Nationwide 7Am Tomorrow

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Currently 5K above the Land Reg and Halifax. Big drop on the way?

It's normal for them to be above Halifax due to the different geographical base of their branches/customers.

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Around 50% of properties on right-move have a 5% discount so averaging that against reasonably prices entrants I go for

Flat to -0.1%

HOWEVER, since the little people (those without 100's k in the bank) just can't afford to move I would not be surprised if we see a an up-tick of around 1% due to the statistics being skewed in favor of the 400k+ properties.

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It's normal for them to be above Halifax due to the different geographical base of their branches/customers.

Halifax have nearly always been above Nationwide, probably due to lending money more freely.

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Don't know this could be a good one due to the following facts:

1. Mortgage lending is trending lower :D

2. Volume of properties for sale has increased :D

3, Repossessions were up 15% :D

Not facts - :rolleyes:

Outside London asking prices seem to have dropped a small percentage this month. I put this down to the news articles saying that sellers were dreaming at Aprils asking prices.

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Halifax have nearly always been above Nationwide, probably due to lending money more freely.

I think there is a regional bias as well between the two.

-1.4%.

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May would be a fantastic month to have a 1%+ fall, that would really wake up the sellers. My only fear is that when prices have fallen another 5% houses will be pulled from sale again.

From what I can see there are 4 types of sale.

1, 'The MEW' - wants to sell and move to similar house so that they can pay off there credit. Can't reduce price because the plan won't work

2, 'The downsizers' - Older couple in mid to late 60's kids have homes of there own they want some spare cash and reduce there outgoings - can reduce prices but won't because prices only ever go up. This type will wait and see until it is too late.

3, 'The Broken FTB' - Bough from 2005 to 2008 on 90%+LTV, now desperate to move to a bigger house / flat, can see the crash coming but just can't afford to reduce there prices due to negative equity.

4, Deaths, Divorces and reposessions. Best value as many a quick sale and go through quick sale / auction.

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Still trying to work out how YoY figures can be seasonally adjusted....

I thinks it's possible because the same magnitude of adjustment is not guaranteed in th same month year to year, so Jan-May 2011 may not be balanced by June-Dec 2010. This would obviously be the case if the adjustments were fixed.

FKW it wouldn't be constant, but seems the case.

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I thinks it's possible because the same magnitude of adjustment is not guaranteed in th same month year to year, so Jan-May 2011 may not be balanced by June-Dec 2010. This would obviously be the case if the adjustments were fixed.

FKW it wouldn't be constant, but seems the case.

?

Any chance of that in Ingleesh, please ?

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Any chance of that in Ingleesh, please ?

I'm not sure I think he's saying it changes because bank holidays and school holidays move, but he could have been saying they make it up.

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?

Any chance of that in Ingleesh, please ?

I'll try harder :)

ok, if the seasonal adjustment %ages applied are fixed for each month, every year, say like this:

Jan 0.3

Feb 0.2

Mar 0

April -0.3

May -0.2

Jun -0.1

Jul -0.1

Aug-0.2

Sep 0

Oct 0

Nov 0.2

Dec 0.2

Then any Year-on-year figure will have no net seasonal adjustment, as the previous 12 months will contain one of all of the above adjustments, which sum to zero.

But, say the next year they change the January adjustment to 0.2. Now the Jan year on year figure will have a net sesonal adjustment of minus 0.1.

Although the seasonal adjustment will be designed to again sum to zero over the course of the year, it means that year-on-year figures which straddle the two years can have a non-zero sum of adjustments.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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I'm not sure I think he's saying it changes because bank holidays and school holidays move, but he could have been saying they make it up.

I think Nationwide do change the amount of adjustment. I don't know what the justification for doing so is. Load of ****** anyway, imo.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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