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Uk Consumers Are Back In Recession, Ons Data Shows

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8536791/UK-consumers-are-back-in-recession-ONS-data-shows.html

Clear evidence of the squeeze on families emerged from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in its second estimate of GDP growth for the first three months of 2011.

Although the headline growth figure was unchanged at 0.5pc, new data showed that household spending contracted by 0.6pc following a 0.3pc fall in the final quarter of 2010.

Raising further concerns about the strength of the recovery, business investment shrank by 7.1pc in the quarter, despite the record £71bn cash pile that companies are sitting on. It is now 3.2pc lower than last year. The Government has identified business investment as one of its two pillars for growth – the other being trade.

Luckily consumer spending doesn't drive the UK economy. No wonder the govt is having to borrow more....

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8536791/UK-consumers-are-back-in-recession-ONS-data-shows.html

Luckily consumer spending doesn't drive the UK economy. No wonder the govt is having to borrow more....

There is no inflation from rising demand from consumers. The inflation is clearly a result of rising commodity prices as a result of printing and devaluation. We need a rate rise.

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If only we could find an overseas market for chavs.

Foreign Legion?

The money we throw at chavs is chickenfeed to that being thrown at banking and immigration, so can live with them.

Given that rentier capitalism is incapable of providing mass employment in the UK, we will just have to live with chavs on every street corner.

Edited by Sir John Steed

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There is no inflation from rising demand from consumers. The inflation is clearly a result of rising commodity prices as a result of printing and devaluation. We need a rate rise.

Could it not be increased demand from foreign consumers pushing up the global commodity prices? Can it all be attributed to the devaluation of our currency?

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Could it not be increased demand from foreign consumers pushing up the global commodity prices? Can it all be attributed to the devaluation of our currency?

Yes, but currency devaluation has not helped.

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Yes, but currency devaluation has not helped.

Thanks Mr Miyagi. When discussing such matters with others I always state the money printing/devaluation is the major cause of the inflation we are experiencing, due to being net importers etc, but just wanted to clarify that despite a drop off in UK consumer demand, this could still be a driver elsewhere, worsening the effects.

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Thanks Mr Miyagi. When discussing such matters with others I always state the money printing/devaluation is the major cause of the inflation we are experiencing, due to being net importers etc, but just wanted to clarify that despite a drop off in UK consumer demand, this could still be a driver elsewhere, worsening the effects.

Don't have any links, but the couple of even-handed analyses I've read trying to explain the rise in price of commodities blandly conclude that it is a mix of both.

I reckon we'll see a shock from declining demand from China later in the year.

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The economy isn't going to grow until wages grow faster than price inflation. Stands to reason. If you get a 2% pay rise and prices go up 5% you buy 3% less stuff by volume. Orders fall. So business investment falls. Pay falls. It's a vicious circle and next year you buy even less stuff because the wage/price gap is even higher.

Historically then prices would also fall. But it's foreign inflation and foreigners don't care if we can't afford their stuff. They aren't going to put their prices down just because one little country can't afford their stuff.

The solution is to get inflation down below wage rises. Then everyone buys more stuff each year. But unfortunately MK can't see this.

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The economy isn't going to grow until wages grow faster than price inflation. Stands to reason. If you get a 2% pay rise and prices go up 5% you buy 3% less stuff by volume. Orders fall. So business investment falls. Pay falls. It's a vicious circle and next year you buy even less stuff because the wage/price gap is even higher.

Historically then prices would also fall. But it's foreign inflation and foreigners don't care if we can't afford their stuff. They aren't going to put their prices down just because one little country can't afford their stuff.

The solution is to get inflation down below wage rises. Then everyone buys more stuff each year. But unfortunately MK can't see this.

This may not be appetizing to some on this site but my public sector wage freeze ends next April. I will be fully supporting my union for a 5%+ wage raise. What other option do I have if inflation is running at 5%+?

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Thanks Mr Miyagi. When discussing such matters with others I always state the money printing/devaluation is the major cause of the inflation we are experiencing, due to being net importers etc, but just wanted to clarify that despite a drop off in UK consumer demand, this could still be a driver elsewhere, worsening the effects.

Unless I'm missing something, Stirling has appreciated against the dollar by more than 10% over the last year and slightly against the Euro. Assuming most of our imports are priced in or against those currencies or Chinese (which Stirling has also appreciated against) then I don't see how the devaluation effect can exist. That mechanism presumably dropped out 12 months after the major devaluation so unless there's some sort of lagging effect I would have thought that the slight appreciation of Stirling ought to have reduced imported inflation slightly (or more likely had a negligible effect).

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8536791/UK-consumers-are-back-in-recession-ONS-data-shows.html

Luckily consumer spending doesn't drive the UK economy. No wonder the govt is having to borrow more....

Something pretty odd is happening this month.I am in the Motor Trade and I know dealers who have had nil sales since wedding weekend.I am getting out so not really bothered but it's quite a drastic fall even from mediocre levels of business.

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Something pretty odd is happening this month.I am in the Motor Trade and I know dealers who have had nil sales since wedding weekend.I am getting out so not really bothered but it's quite a drastic fall even from mediocre levels of business.

Sorry to hear that profit..

You did mention reducing staff but 'getting out' is something else. What are you going to do?

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The economy isn't going to grow until wages grow faster than price inflation. Stands to reason. If you get a 2% pay rise and prices go up 5% you buy 3% less stuff by volume. Orders fall. So business investment falls. Pay falls. It's a vicious circle and next year you buy even less stuff because the wage/price gap is even higher.

Historically then prices would also fall. But it's foreign inflation and foreigners don't care if we can't afford their stuff. They aren't going to put their prices down just because one little country can't afford their stuff.

The solution is to get inflation down below wage rises. Then everyone buys more stuff each year. But unfortunately MK can't see this.

Should this really be wage increases plus personal borrowing are greater than inflation? If things are ever to even out then the borrowing needs to be repaid, in which case we have the scenario that the economy will only grow if wage increases outstrip inflation plus repayments.

A very naive analysis, admittedly, but I think it illustrates a major contributor to the economic problems the country faces, especially in the aftermath of the unprecedented borrowing in the Gordenron years. Corrections please if I'm wrong.

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Sorry to hear that profit..

You did mention reducing staff but 'getting out' is something else. What are you going to do?

I am going into hibernation.I have a friend with a site and I am going to send him my remaining stock on a 50/50 split of the profits. I have had 34 years so I am not complaining but to be perfectly honest the 20% VAT was the straw that broke the camel's back. I intend to deregister and keep below the threshold paying them 0% where they could have had 17.5

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Something pretty odd is happening this month.I am in the Motor Trade and I know dealers who have had nil sales since wedding weekend.I am getting out so not really bothered but it's quite a drastic fall even from mediocre levels of business.

Inflationary tipping point - where the consumer runs of money for even their core expenses - King Kunt has bailed out the banksters and screwed the rest of the population apart from a favoured few. Insurance, car tax, petrol up a lot - end result might even be net sellers of cars - friends of mine going down to one car - no change in family requiements.

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Inflationary tipping point - where the consumer runs of money for even their core expenses - King Kunt has bailed out the banksters and screwed the rest of the population apart from a favoured few. Insurance, car tax, petrol up a lot - end result might even be net sellers of cars - friends of mine going down to one car - no change in family requiements.

Most of my mates are looking for ways to cut the bills, gas, electric, food, petrol and most have had a complete stop on the purchase of clothes, make-up, fake tans and all that stuff. Not good for growing the economy.

They won't put this stuff on credit cards either because most have had a wage cut in some form, downgrading, relocation, loss of overtime, loss of car allowance or milage, or pay freeze. Some are under redundancy threat too.

Wonder what the holiday bookings are like for this year? Most of them are going camping or renting a caravan. No Spain, Florida, Turkey trip for the foreseable, so some spending staying in the UK.

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I am going into hibernation.I have a friend with a site and I am going to send him my remaining stock on a 50/50 split of the profits. I have had 34 years so I am not complaining but to be perfectly honest the 20% VAT was the straw that broke the camel's back. I intend to deregister and keep below the threshold paying them 0% where they could have had 17.5

Okay, sounds like you'll be joining me on the 'live like a king on 20k a year' trail!

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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