Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

I've been saying for some time, we are in the midst of an almighty house price crash/correction.

it's a slow process.

Human nature makes us impatient, but does anyone actually believe that we are not living the crash, albeit in slow motion?

I think we were spoilt by the first 12 months of the crash, that was spectacular.

The rot was stopped at massive expense to us all, now tho the has taken hold again.

If u want proof...just take a look at that graph on the hone page....it speaks volumes.

Some people are waiting for the crash...but this is it...get out there, offer low on houses you want to buy, put 2nd hand house salesmen in their place...and enjoy.

The crash is unstoppable, in real terms. you gotta decide for yourself how/when/where you buy. get the best deal you can and just be thankful you didnt buy in 2007 or 2010...for those fools are the greatest of the greatest fools.

Welcome to the mother of all crashes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been saying for some time, we are in the midst of an almighty house price crash/correction.

it's a slow process.

Human nature makes us impatient, but does anyone actually believe that we are not living the crash, albeit in slow motion?

I think we were spoilt by the first 12 months of the crash, that was spectacular.

The rot was stopped at massive expense to us all, now tho the has taken hold again.

If u want proof...just take a look at that graph on the hone page....it speaks volumes.

Some people are waiting for the crash...but this is it...get out there, offer low on houses you want to buy, put 2nd hand house salesmen in their place...and enjoy.

The crash is unstoppable, in real terms. you gotta decide for yourself how/when/where you buy. get the best deal you can and just be thankful you didnt buy in 2007 or 2010...for those fools are the greatest of the greatest fools.

Welcome to the mother of all crashes.

yeah, I think you're right. Sales volumes plummeting, bearish media, quality of life being squeezed, rates only going one way, fantasy finance removed. It's all down from here imo, as the forced sellers appear in greater numbers.

Edited by cheeznbreed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been saying for some time, we are in the midst of an almighty house price crash/correction.

it's a slow process.

Human nature makes us impatient, but does anyone actually believe that we are not living the crash, albeit in slow motion?

I think we were spoilt by the first 12 months of the crash, that was spectacular.

The rot was stopped at massive expense to us all, now tho the has taken hold again.

If u want proof...just take a look at that graph on the hone page....it speaks volumes.

Some people are waiting for the crash...but this is it...get out there, offer low on houses you want to buy, put 2nd hand house salesmen in their place...and enjoy.

The crash is unstoppable, in real terms. you gotta decide for yourself how/when/where you buy. get the best deal you can and just be thankful you didnt buy in 2007 or 2010...for those fools are the greatest of the greatest fools.

Welcome to the mother of all crashes.

Good advice. You are right, this is it, we are living it now, enjoy, and be thankfull you didn`t listen to Kursty and co.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to agree, tore a strip off a Surrey agent yesterday for serving me up overpriced sh*it.

Pi*ss of and come back when it's £70 grand cheaper you hair-gelled oink .. don't waste my time with your ridiculous nonsense.

They'll get the message eventually.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to agree, tore a strip off a Surrey agent yesterday for serving me up overpriced sh*it.

Pi*ss of and come back when it's £70 grand cheaper you hair-gelled oink .. don't waste my time with your ridiculous nonsense.

They'll get the message eventually.

Ah, the virtues of tough love. Did he enjoy that? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to agree, tore a strip off a Surrey agent yesterday for serving me up overpriced sh*it.

Pi*ss of and come back when it's £70 grand cheaper you hair-gelled oink .. don't waste my time with your ridiculous nonsense.

They'll get the message eventually.

Brilliant - what was the lad's response. More spouting or a humble acknowledgement that he's been peddling bull for far too long and has been found out for what he is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some people are waiting for the crash...but this is it...get out there, offer low on houses you want to buy, put 2nd hand house salesmen in their place...and enjoy.

Indeed, a call to arms Comrade! People need to get out there and drive down prices, there are plenty of mortgages available.

We will have long, slow grinding falls masked mainly by inflation. It might be time for a lot of people, particularly FTBers, to get out there and start insulting sellers.

There is no boat to be missed, but you'd be foolish not to be trying to take advantage of an absolutely dead market.

Edited by pete.hpc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree we are in thr middle of the crash that began in 07 but It's my opinion that there will be a second significant fall of around 10 - 20% the plateau at the top of the bear market rally lasted longer than I expected but we are over the edge and heading down. I expect it to accelerate this year. After that I will be making my derisory, laughable and insulting offers :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree we are in thr middle of the crash that began in 07 but It's my opinion that there will be a second significant fall of around 10 - 20% the plateau at the top of the bear market rally lasted longer than I expected but we are over the edge and heading down. I expect it to accelerate this year. After that I will be making my derisory, laughable and insulting offers :)

In same position, could buy a house now easily but are waiting till next year, maybe the year after. . Financial bubbles pop quickly as they are 'liquid' like the nasdaq bubble or dot com bubble, push a button or call your broker and your out. Houses are highly 'iliquid' it can take years to get shot of a depreciating house as owners refuse to face the loss, as a result housing markets deflate often slowly, at lest far slower than a financial bubble. Patience is required, this market is in the process of crashing, second leg after the dead cat bounce underway, we all know that. Looking for 20% drop over next couple of years and a stagnant market for the rest of the decade. Look at Japan there housing bust still hasn't recovered 20 years later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's regional and could be largely related to where a dodgy mortgage broker operates.

On the same day a few weeks back we got a cards through the door from a mortgage broker, someone offering part time jobs without saying what the job was (same telephone number as mortgage broker) and an estate agent asking for more properties for sale.

Since then there have been several sales, some properties on the market for ages and others new instructions snapped up quickly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A colleague who sold early last year has just paid through the 2007 top in Ham (between Kingston and Richmond). No sign of HPC in SW London. His fear of higher mortgage rates outweighed the prospect of lower prices. Plus the investors are back with rents on the move upwards. (£3k pm for family houses).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A colleague who sold early last year has just paid through the 2007 top in Ham (between Kingston and Richmond). No sign of HPC in SW London. His fear of higher mortgage rates outweighed the prospect of lower prices. Plus the investors are back with rents on the move upwards. (£3k pm for family houses).

:lol: ...it's contained.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably yes, but it needs the inevitable interest rate rise(s) to make it blatently obvious. Although I predicted house prices will remain stable in London this year, I wouldn't be surprised to be proven wrong (as with other predictions), especially if interest rates rose a few notches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wage inflation, wage inflation, wage inflation; that is the factor that could change the ration between average earnings and house prices, my view is that house prices will under go a small amount of deflation but within five years many people’s wages will have increased 30%, while food and fuel will have increased 50%...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted 16 May 2010 - 06:57 PM

When I first joined here in jan 08. I questioned the forum group mentality that is wasnt 'different this time'

and was called a troll because of it. In fact I was then and am now overall bearish. But I wasnt convinced

that there would be this huge early 90s style crash for a few reasons:

1) Way more concerted vested interest. ( including a mad PM that actually wanted high house prices.

2) Way more media coverage than previous times ( Kirsty Phil)

3) This was my big warning. The sheer amount of bitter buyers to be waiting for a crash just to buy .

( That will undepin any falls)

As time went on and I read more on here. I became more and more convinced that property prices were unsustainable.

And that the general feel of the forum was correct ( if they could just hold back from buying the drops)

And we have had drops of course. A year of them. But then some rises in a thin market. Definatley not the late 80s early 90s crash.

But I lived and owned in that one too. and it was about 5 years peak to trough. So perhaps expectations on here were a bit

unrealistic. Driven I thought ( and still do) by desperation of many posters that they would never be able to buy unless property

values halved. ( a lot of regulars caved in last year and bought). So I figured that depsite the bile and bitterness of some against

'sheeple' and ''baby boomers' and home owners in general the sentiment was very much a buying one. just a ''Not at this level'

attitude. There seemed to be a hatred of people that had already doen exactly what some of the more vocal posters wanted to do themselves.

But what I hadnt banked on ( and most of the aforementioned guys hadnt either) was the sheer madness of a Govt that would

stop at nothing to prop up a housing bubble/indebted economy/ by slash interest rates, printing money, bailing out Home builders,

stopping repossions, bailing out banks.

BUT now its all stopped. The game is up. They are out. The party you lot need is now in. They neither have the inclination or perhaps more importantly

the money ( line of credit) to keep it propped up. This times, there NOTHING that can stop house prices reverting to mean. I truly belive it.

Hold the faith my bitter and impatient brothers. Your time has come!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(...)

Some people are waiting for the crash...but this is it...get out there, offer low on houses you want to buy, put 2nd hand house salesmen in their place...and enjoy.

(...)

I agree that it has started already, but I think it is too early to buy yet in most of the country, and for most type of properties.

Perhaps there are a few areas / types of properties where prices could be getting near the bottom, but I doubt it.

But we will get there, in the next year or 2.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But what I hadnt banked on ( and most of the aforementioned guys hadnt either) was the sheer madness of a Govt that would

stop at nothing to prop up a housing bubble/indebted economy/ by slash interest rates, printing money, bailing out Home builders,

stopping repossions, bailing out banks.

BUT now its all stopped. The game is up. They are out. The party you lot need is now in. They neither have the inclination or perhaps more importantly

the money ( line of credit) to keep it propped up. This times, there NOTHING that can stop house prices reverting to mean. I truly belive it.

Hold the faith my bitter and impatient brothers. Your time has come!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted 16 May 2010 - 06:57 PM

When I first joined here in jan 08. I questioned the forum group mentality that is wasnt 'different this time'

and was called a troll because of it. In fact I was then and am now overall bearish. But I wasnt convinced

that there would be this huge early 90s style crash for a few reasons:

1) Way more concerted vested interest. ( including a mad PM that actually wanted high house prices.

2) Way more media coverage than previous times ( Kirsty Phil)

3) This was my big warning. The sheer amount of bitter buyers to be waiting for a crash just to buy .

( That will undepin any falls)

As time went on and I read more on here. I became more and more convinced that property prices were unsustainable.

And that the general feel of the forum was correct ( if they could just hold back from buying the drops)

And we have had drops of course. A year of them. But then some rises in a thin market. Definatley not the late 80s early 90s crash.

But I lived and owned in that one too. and it was about 5 years peak to trough. So perhaps expectations on here were a bit

unrealistic. Driven I thought ( and still do) by desperation of many posters that they would never be able to buy unless property

values halved. ( a lot of regulars caved in last year and bought). So I figured that depsite the bile and bitterness of some against

'sheeple' and ''baby boomers' and home owners in general the sentiment was very much a buying one. just a ''Not at this level'

attitude. There seemed to be a hatred of people that had already doen exactly what some of the more vocal posters wanted to do themselves.

But what I hadnt banked on ( and most of the aforementioned guys hadnt either) was the sheer madness of a Govt that would

stop at nothing to prop up a housing bubble/indebted economy/ by slash interest rates, printing money, bailing out Home builders,

stopping repossions, bailing out banks.

BUT now its all stopped. The game is up. They are out. The party you lot need is now in. They neither have the inclination or perhaps more importantly

the money ( line of credit) to keep it propped up. This times, there NOTHING that can stop house prices reverting to mean. I truly belive it.

Hold the faith my bitter and impatient brothers. Your time has come!

My main "bitterness" is against NIMBYs that have already their own homes, and block others from building theirs.

And against Gordon Brown, the main responsible for the credit bubble.

Regarding the crash, thanks to FreeTrader excellent charts:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&view=findpost&p=2990435

HPC0411.gif

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My main "bitterness" is against NIMBYs that have already their own homes, and block others from building theirs.

And against Gordon Brown, the main responsible for the credit bubble.

Regarding the crash, thanks to FreeTrader excellent charts:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&view=findpost&p=2990435

HPC0411.gif

WRT your graph, I'm afraid I don't see the point of adjusting for RPI alone, when it's the difference between price inflation and wage inflation that dictates affordability.

I remember in 1989 inflation was high, but so were pay increases (I was working then).

When pay increases are running way below inflation as they currently are for most, then applying an oversimplistic adjustment based on price inflation doesn't give a true picture of the decline in affordability.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WRT your graph, I'm afraid I don't see the point of adjusting for RPI alone, when it's the difference between price inflation and wage inflation that dictates affordability.

I remember in 1989 inflation was high, but so were pay increases (I was working then).

When pay increases are running way below inflation as they currently are for most, then applying an oversimplistic adjustment based on price inflation doesn't give a true picture of the decline in affordability.

Just click the link I posted above the chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im looking to buy in Lymington, Hampshire. Not much evidence of any house price falls or of any build up in unsold properties,

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=so41

Unless and until we get significant increases in interest rates and many more repossessions then we're looking at the "slow speed" version of the crash, stretching out over many years with inflation doing much of the neccessary correction.

I sold to rent at the back end of 2005, and have kept the HPC faith for over five years, expecting each year might bring the 20%+ nominal declines. Not happened so far, unlikely in 2011, maybe in 2012?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im looking to buy in Lymington, Hampshire. Not much evidence of any house price falls or of any build up in unsold properties,

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=so41

Unless and until we get significant increases in interest rates and many more repossessions then we're looking at the "slow speed" version of the crash, stretching out over many years with inflation doing much of the neccessary correction.

I sold to rent at the back end of 2005, and have kept the HPC faith for over five years, expecting each year might bring the 20%+ nominal declines. Not happened so far, unlikely in 2011, maybe in 2012?

But look at that neighbouring tab on Rightmove's page: "Marketed properties"

LINK: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=so41

Supply is increasing. Prices should fall soon.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im looking to buy in Lymington, Hampshire. Not much evidence of any house price falls or of any build up in unsold properties,

http://www.rightmove...chLocation=so41

Unless and until we get significant increases in interest rates and many more repossessions then we're looking at the "slow speed" version of the crash, stretching out over many years with inflation doing much of the neccessary correction.

I sold to rent at the back end of 2005, and have kept the HPC faith for over five years, expecting each year might bring the 20%+ nominal declines. Not happened so far, unlikely in 2011, maybe in 2012?

The conditions were not fully in place for a big crash in 2005, they are now. IMO it`s that simple. To buy now would be complete madness. Of course I appreciate the pressure central bank nonsense is putting in STR people, I was really just starting to tackle my card debt in 2005, and would be possibly looking for a mortgage at the lowest point of the market, after a proper correction.

Edited by dances with sheeple

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.