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jaynewcastle

Is The £ Going To Stregthen Against Foreign Currencies Soon ?

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Very unpredictable so I would not bother to try to guess if I were you. Take the current rate and be happy with it.

Take a look at the movements from the last year or two it is a rollercoaster. FX is basically a speculative crapshoot no accurate way of predicting what will happen. If you can predict, good luck go and make some serious cash.

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You can look at the 6 month delivery of currency futures to see what the billions at work in the futures market are currently 'predicting'.

Although they will be wrong anyway.

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What is the £ going to do against foreign currencies in the next 6 months ?

It's unlikely the pound is going to move in the same direction against all foreign currencies so it would help people to answer your question if you could identify which specific currency or currencies you have in mind

Although they will be wrong anyway

Edited by Charlton Peston

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You can look at the 6 month delivery of currency futures to see what the billions at work in the futures market are currently 'predicting'.

Wrong.

FX forward rates and futures depend on the interest rate differential of the two ccys involved - NOT on market expectations on the spot rate in the future.

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Very unpredictable so I would not bother to try to guess if I were you. Take the current rate and be happy with it.

Take a look at the movements from the last year or two it is a rollercoaster. FX is basically a speculative crapshoot no accurate way of predicting what will happen. If you can predict, good luck go and make some serious cash.

Some of us are traders, some of us aren't. You can stay amongst the sheeple ie. with no opinion on anything, but I like to put my money where my mouth is...yes I think GBP will appreciate against many currencies, we're one of the few countries where the government is facing up to our debt problems. I'd buy GBP against EUR,USD,JPY,AUD, and don't think you can go wrong. Seems to be substantial upside in some of these too.

Edit: typo

Edited by tboy

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we're one of the few countries where the government is facing up to our debt problems.

Well they are talking about cutting anyway. Osbourne has outspent GB every month so far.

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Some of us are traders, some of us aren't. You can stay amongst the sheeple ie. with no opinion on anything, but I like to put my money where my mouth is...yes I think GBP will appreciate against many currencies, we're one of the few countries where the government is facing up to our debt problems. I'd buy GBP against EUR,USD,JPY,AUD, and don't think you can go wrong. Seems to be substantial upside in some of these too.

Edit: typo

basically agree but not usd. its going to rocket this spring/summer on dx

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Well they are talking about cutting anyway. Osbourne has outspent GB every month so far.

Not helped by Alastair Darling promising the earth to everyone to get votes before he left.. The Tories are picking up the tab.

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Some of us are traders, some of us aren't. You can stay amongst the sheeple ie. with no opinion on anything

I cannot recall a period in my lifetime when the geopolitical situation has been so volatile and chaotic. So, my opinion is that trying to call where sterling is going to be sitting at a specific point in the future is a coin toss. If not having a reasoned opinion on the outcome of a coin toss makes someone sheeple then baaaaaaaaaa

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Just read this:

US default ‘more likely than in Indonesia’

It sounds dotty to suggest the US is at imminent risk of default. A country that has rarely been able to borrow so cheaply, that issues debt in its own currency and has just demonstrated that it can print as much money as it likes need never miss a coupon payment.

Yet in the past fortnight traders have come to the conclusion that America might breach its own constitutional clause that its debt “shall not be questioned”. According to Markit, the cost of one-year US credit default swaps, which insure against default, almost tripled in six trading days.

The Indonesia bit makes me think THEY are going for a big push to get cheap dollars before the rug is pulled and it goes the other way. Always do the opposite?

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After much deliberation, I have concluded that the pound is toast.

In which case presumably the dollar and Euro are going to be some sort of charred, blackened lump.

At least we are addressing the problems, they are making them worse.

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In which case presumably the dollar and Euro are going to be some sort of charred, blackened lump.

At least we are addressing the problems, they are making them worse.

:lol:

How exactly?

Ask yourself these questions :-

What is the PB figure now? (look at the last 6 months, say)

What was the PB figure for the equivalent 6 months under Brown? (you need to compare the same calendar months due to cyclical factors)

What will happen to the banks if house prices fall to historic norms? (Clue : They haven't been able to sell on the rubbish packaged as AAA products to foreigners as many of the US banks did)

If something bad happens to the banks, what will happen to the public debt figures shortly afterwards when the government bails them out again? (Clue : Ireland)

This is just beginning. There can be no recovery while house prices are so high, because it's one of the principal things that makes the economy uncompetitive, employers need to pay people enough to live in these expensive shoeboxes.

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The £ is the darling of the FX traders for now (up vs Euro and US $). But it is standing on the future prospects for our economy which in turn relies upon NOT having a house price crash.

However, the Eurozone is headed into choppier waters with sovereign debt issues breaking out again. The US $ faces the same inability we have in relation to IR. Merv cannot hike or he will precipiate a HPC of mega proportions. The US are almost at the bottom of their 50% down HPC with perhaps another 10% down to go after the 30-40% drop to date. We are only down 20% overall with another 20-30% yet to come.

Bottom line: currency markets seem to be rangebound and as we are all in it together its likely to continue as it is now for a few years with some panic sell-offs every so often.

My LT bet is back on the US $ with short and medium term bonds. (THOPX and WEFIX with a smattering of PTTDX and PTTBX). Very lite on global stocks.

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Its a beauty contest for old nags at the glue factory this thread!

"de gulden shall prevail." Mayer Rothschild, 1803

Fair play, Rothschild beat me to it by a couple of centuries.

Edited by General Congreve

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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