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Bitcoins Going To The Moon?


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HOLA441
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HOLA442

It's not really a scam. That would suggest something evil or illegal is going on. It isn't.

It isn't fraudulent and it doesn't do any more or less than it says on the tin. It doesn't promise to make you rich and the author explained that it was just an experiment that went wild (IIRC).

Granted, built in deflation rules it out as an ideal currency, but as a virtual commodity it's a different prospect. To relate to gold, they aren't making any more of that either and it's getting harder to mine, but that doesn't stop people hoarding and speculating on it... I don't hear people claiming that gold is a scam either. They are quite open with how the algorithm rewards early adopters too - it's no secret.

There was a thread here long ago and we agreed that in built deflation was a bad idea. Scep and I posted on a few threads on their forum arguing the point, but they don't see the problem and/or care.

IMO, it covers some interesting ground and it is a good test of the technology. However, the number of coins needs to flex with the user base (as a minimum) for it to be useful as a currency. Using them with a credit clearing system would then also give them a real usefulness.

Do I think bitcoins will be the next global currency? No. Do I think it could lead to a more practical descendant? Yes.

Edited by Traktion
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HOLA443

Just found an interesting article, which I thought I would share on here: http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/

Also, check this out: http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin

It looks like it has suddenly got a lot of attention!

Also, they are now worth £8 a bitcoin (link)... almost doubled in a week or so! :o

I honestly don't know what to make of all this now. There certainly seems to be an interest in Bitcoins and the list of merchants is growing. It could all collapse (if it's a bubble, how inflated is it? I have no idea!), but I certainly wouldn't bet against it right now - if it goes viral, there are a lot of people on this planet who may want to use it.

P.S. I notice here that there is a Ripple exchange which accepts Bitcoins, which is more interesting still: https://ripplexchange.com/net/. I haven't explored what services they provide, but it is a fascinating combination.

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HOLA444

Just found an interesting article, which I thought I would share on here: http://cs702.wordpre...n-the-long-run/

Also, check this out: http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin

It looks like it has suddenly got a lot of attention!

Also, they are now worth £8 a bitcoin (link)... almost doubled in a week or so! :o

I honestly don't know what to make of all this now. There certainly seems to be an interest in Bitcoins and the list of merchants is growing. It could all collapse (if it's a bubble, how inflated is it? I have no idea!), but I certainly wouldn't bet against it right now - if it goes viral, there are a lot of people on this planet who may want to use it.

P.S. I notice here that there is a Ripple exchange which accepts Bitcoins, which is more interesting still: https://ripplexchange.com/net/. I haven't explored what services they provide, but it is a fascinating combination.

Can you actually buy anything other than Dollar bills with them? Tesco doesn't take them. Amazon doesn't take them. The iTunes store doesn't take them. The only thing you can do with them is sell them to a greater fool later.

Also, money needs to be an effective store of value. Anything that doubles in value in about 4 days doesn't meet that criteria.

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HOLA445

Can you actually buy anything other than Dollar bills with them? Tesco doesn't take them. Amazon doesn't take them. The iTunes store doesn't take them. The only thing you can do with them is sell them to a greater fool later.

Also, money needs to be an effective store of value. Anything that doubles in value in about 4 days doesn't meet that criteria.

Well, that link above has a number of merchants who accept them, including some useful shops. This list is much more comprehensive than a year ago and tbh Bitcoins didn't go very far until the last month or two, when interest seemed to explode.

Re the store of value, if it's doubled in value, I'd say it had managed to store it and some!

As a unit of account, it's clearly fluctuating a lot at the moment, but if you overlay the price chart with the Google Trends chart, they correlate very well. If interest continues to gather pace, then merchants will have to adjust their prices downwards as required, but it will probably also encourage them to accept the Bitcoins in the first place.

Who knows where it is going to go? Nothing quite like Bitcoins has ever been invented before, which is why I find it so interesting.

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HOLA446

Well, that link above has a number of merchants who accept them, including some useful shops. This list is much more comprehensive than a year ago and tbh Bitcoins didn't go very far until the last month or two, when interest seemed to explode.

Re the store of value, if it's doubled in value, I'd say it had managed to store it and some!

As a unit of account, it's clearly fluctuating a lot at the moment, but if you overlay the price chart with the Google Trends chart, they correlate very well. If interest continues to gather pace, then merchants will have to adjust their prices downwards as required, but it will probably also encourage them to accept the Bitcoins in the first place.

Who knows where it is going to go? Nothing quite like Bitcoins has ever been invented before, which is why I find it so interesting.

If it doubles in value that quickly, it can just as easily half in value. Anyway, I don't see how they are any different to tulip bulbs.

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HOLA447

Who knows where it is going to go? Nothing quite like Bitcoins has ever been invented before, which is why I find it so interesting.

I think it is very interesting too

I suspect the risk lies in whether the encription gets hacked or is perceived to be hackable

otherwise, no reason why it cannot become another store of value, like gold, one which works out as an awful investment in the long run and has the odd bubble

what it does to nation states will be interesting - when will you be able to trade bitcoins with mobile phones, ie as payment options in the third world?

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HOLA448

If it doubles in value that quickly, it can just as easily half in value. Anyway, I don't see how they are any different to tulip bulbs.

If you don't see any difference, I'd suggest you read the first link above. Tulip bulbs were never any good as currency and nor are houses. They rot too.

As for halving just as easily, it depends what has driven them up. If the price is increasing as more people are becoming interested in them, it follows that the price will fall as people lose interest in them. That's why I thought the trends graph was interesting.

Anyway, I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else that they are "the future". I'm just observing and sharing something new and interesting. The market will dictate their usefulness either way.

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HOLA449

I think it is very interesting too

I suspect the risk lies in whether the encription gets hacked or is perceived to be hackable

otherwise, no reason why it cannot become another store of value, like gold, one which works out as an awful investment in the long run and has the odd bubble

what it does to nation states will be interesting - when will you be able to trade bitcoins with mobile phones, ie as payment options in the third world?

The way governments react if acceptance starts to take hold will be fascinating. Surely, they couldn't successfully ban something so overtly distributed in nature? In an ideal world, they will just accept that it could improve liquidity and ensure taxes are paid on transactions too - companies would have to account for them either way, as with any foreign currency.

Re phones, theoretically an unlocked Android phone could already run the Linux app, so a decent port can't be too far away. It may be pretty easy to port the Mac version to the iPhone too. IIRC, they have a less secure protocol for small transfers planned too though, which wouldn't eat so much battery power on phones. I think that smart phones could be key to adoption though, as I'm sure they will become the conduit for the digital wallet sooner or later.

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HOLA4410

If you don't see any difference, I'd suggest you read the first link above. Tulip bulbs were never any good as currency and nor are houses. They rot too.

As for halving just as easily, it depends what has driven them up. If the price is increasing as more people are becoming interested in them, it follows that the price will fall as people lose interest in them. That's why I thought the trends graph was interesting.

Anyway, I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else that they are "the future". I'm just observing and sharing something new and interesting. The market will dictate their usefulness either way.

Even if they are technically viable as money, the way it is rising in value is going to kill its reputation before it gets a chance to mature. People are going to buy them as a speculative investment, pushing the value up to silly levels. At some point, there is going to be a correction, and people will completely lose faith in them at that point.

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HOLA4411

Just foun...............ts Bitcoins, which is more interesting still: https://ripplexchange.com/net/. I haven't explored what services they provide, but it is a fascinating combination.

Sounds a bit faddy to me, like the latest Internet thing and the msm, looking for the next Twitter, terrified of not getting in on it at the start, report about it. Like young kids playing football they all chase it around for a bit, then something else comes along rinse repeat.

I'll eat my hat if this catches on.

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HOLA4412

The way governments react if acceptance starts to take hold will be fascinating. Surely, they couldn't successfully ban something so overtly distributed in nature? In an ideal world, they will just accept that it could improve liquidity and ensure taxes are paid on transactions too - companies would have to account for them either way, as with any foreign currency.

Re phones, theoretically an unlocked Android phone could already run the Linux app, so a decent port can't be too far away. It may be pretty easy to port the Mac version to the iPhone too. IIRC, they have a less secure protocol for small transfers planned too though, which wouldn't eat so much battery power on phones. I think that smart phones could be key to adoption though, as I'm sure they will become the conduit for the digital wallet sooner or later.

As far as I can see, they are already illegal here. You need to register with the FSA or the equivalent in another EU/EEA country to be an electronic money issuer, and the money you issue has to be backed by appropriate reserves. Bitcoin doesn't comply with any of this.

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HOLA4413

As far as I can see, they are already illegal here. You need to register with the FSA or the equivalent in another EU/EEA country to be an electronic money issuer, and the money you issue has to be backed by appropriate reserves. Bitcoin doesn't comply with any of this.

does have a whiff of a ponzi scheme about it

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415

Sounds a bit faddy to me, like the latest Internet thing and the msm, looking for the next Twitter, terrified of not getting in on it at the start, report about it. Like young kids playing football they all chase it around for a bit, then something else comes along rinse repeat.

I'll eat my hat if this catches on.

I've not heard anything on the MSM yet. I've heard about it on a few YouTube videos and websites, but little else. It seems to have just started to go viral. I've seen a couple of Linux/FOSS users get into the idea too from the 'freedom' aspect.

Maybe you're right though and it is a fad. Who knows? It seems to be worth more than other e-currency systems that have come and gone (Liberty Dollars being a big one) already too.

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HOLA4416

As far as I can see, they are already illegal here. You need to register with the FSA or the equivalent in another EU/EEA country to be an electronic money issuer, and the money you issue has to be backed by appropriate reserves. Bitcoin doesn't comply with any of this.

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/Pages/About/What/International/emoney/index.shtml

Who is the issuer here though? The anonymous miners all over the world? Good luck taking all of them to court! It would be even harder than the super injunction nonsense with suing twitter users (who again, could be anonymous AFAIK). What are appropriate reserves too? This new legislation looks a few years too late and a few yards too short (typically).

This isn't a UK currency, issued by some UK e-currency company; it's fully distributed, open source and not tied to any country. Even if they make it illegal here, it isn't going to stop people using them in the rest of the world (or here, tbh). Bitcoins are wild now, likely with tens of thousands of users all over the world already. Even if they shut the website down, it could be put on Bittorrent by any of those thousands of users who also have the source code as part of the download. In short, they can't put this genie back into the bottle, even if the governments of the biggest economies tried to.

Whether it will be successful as money is debatable (as seen on HPC), but many of the limitations of Bitcoins can be remedied by other e-currencies competing with it as/when supply is too short for demand. It may not be the best currency or even the best commodity, but it has a unique value as a secure*/anonymous/decentralised means of exchange - for some that may be exactly what they want/need.

* Assuming that the software stands some serious tests of scalability/security etc. Time will be the judge of that.

Edited by Traktion
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HOLA4417

Second half concentrates on bitcoin.

I hadn't seen that one yet - thanks for linking! I suppose that almost counts as MSM? ;)

It was interesting to hear what that chap had to say too and I think he is right about many things. His URL is here, if anyone is interested: http://themonetaryfuture.blogspot.com/

Edited by Traktion
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HOLA4418

The problem with this madness is that when it collapses it will dirty the reputation of digital currencies.

So ultimately its playing into the hands of those whom this concept seeks to undermine.

However I agree that the madness may have some way to run yet. Prices are easily goosed and pumped by anyone who is sufficiently determined.

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HOLA4419

The problem with this madness is that when it collapses it will dirty the reputation of digital currencies.

So ultimately its playing into the hands of those whom this concept seeks to undermine.

However I agree that the madness may have some way to run yet. Prices are easily goosed and pumped by anyone who is sufficiently determined.

It's exactly the same as current money - i.e. useless, worthless rubbish.

Money has to have market demand in and of itself, when we get back to that things will improve and not before.

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HOLA4420

It's exactly the same as current money - i.e. useless, worthless rubbish.

Money has to have market demand in and of itself, when we get back to that things will improve and not before.

I would say that the features of the money itself give value to the Bitcoins (as a unit of account). Some people value something which is secure, anonymous distributed, easily transacted and not managed by governments. It isn't without flaws, but I can see many benefits.

Besides, you can hold gold, silver, carrots or whatever you want too. You don't need to put all your wealth in a Bitcoin gamble. Indeed, you can just keep as much as you need for whatever you want to buy (in said secure, anonymous way) if you wish.

TBH, I think there is too much focus on finding "the perfect currency", when the answer may be many alternatives, some of which will become more successful than others. If technology makes exchanging currencies a transparent process, we aren't going to have the problem of needing a bunch of different notes - a digital wallet would just select the best currency for the job and convert to it if necessary.

Perhaps Hayek will be right in the long run, with alternative private currencies playing a part. With electronic transfers, there certainly seems to be far fewer boundaries. I doubt we will go back to swapping metal coins either - it's just not practical for much of the commerce which is done now (unless you have a centralised PM warehouses, but these would frighten PM money advocates too).

It seems to me that with the Internet, liquidity has increased massively. Just about anything can be traded in the blink of an eye. Where does money stop and investments start? From where I am standing, the line already looks blurred and may be about to disappear completely (over the next decade).

Edited by Traktion
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HOLA4421

I would say that the features of the money itself give value to the Bitcoins (as a unit of account). Some people value something which is secure, anonymous distributed, easily transacted and not managed by governments. It isn't without flaws, but I can see many benefits.

Besides, you can hold gold, silver, carrots or whatever you want too. You don't need to put all your wealth in a Bitcoin gamble. Indeed, you can just keep as much as you need for whatever you want to buy (in said secure, anonymous way) if you wish.

TBH, I think there is too much focus on finding "the perfect currency", when the answer may be many alternatives, some of which will become more successful than others. If technology makes exchanging currencies a transparent process, we aren't going to have the problem of needing a bunch of different notes - a digital wallet would just select the best currency for the job and convert to it if necessary.

Perhaps Hayek will be right in the long run, with alternative private currencies playing a part. With electronic transfers, there certainly seems to be far fewer boundaries. I doubt we will go back to swapping metal coins either - it's just not practical for much of the commerce which is done now (unless you have a centralised PM warehouses, but these would frighten PM money advocates too).

It seems to me that with the Internet, liquidity has increased massively. Just about anything can be traded in the blink of an eye. Where does money stop and investments start? From where I am standing, the line already looks blurred and may be about to disappear completely (over the next decade).

Accounting has to be of something of value.

The base of the system has to be market driven, not worthless and useless.

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HOLA4422

Accounting has to be of something of value.

The base of the system has to be market driven, not worthless and useless.

Experts say bumble bees shouldn't be able to fly either, but they do.

We visited this topic a year ago when the market said Bitcoins were worth pennies. The market says they are now worth pounds. Lets see where we are in another year, eh?

Edited by Traktion
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HOLA4423
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HOLA4424
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HOLA4425

Experts say bumble bees shouldn't be able to fly either, but they do.

We visited this topic a year ago when the market said Bitcoins were worth pennies. The market says they are now worth pounds. Lets see where we are in another year, eh?

Nothing to do with the base of the system, which is what I referred to.

Bitcoins might be a funsie experiment, they aren't a proper solution to the problem of value in an economy.

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