scepticus Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 (edited) edit - duplicate Edited May 25, 2011 by scepticus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not sure how that matters? If one fiat currency fails, it doesn't take all the others with it. Care to be less cryptic? It does in the area the last fiat was in. The appearance of competing intangible and worthless currencies is a good sign a fiat regime is on the way out, by the by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It does in the area the last fiat was in. The appearance of competing intangible and worthless currencies is a good sign a fiat regime is on the way out, by the by. Interesting point. Since fiat has no intrisic value and worth is only defined by it's credibility. As its credibility reduces, so other fiats can start to compete, so more competitors emerge to take it on the established ones. Reminds me of those southern civil war notes you could see at Gettysburg. I suppose everything is there in history should you choose to look for it. Maybe there is someone who has plotted the emergence of "new" currencies as a function of time over the past few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 That only holds if you can pay your electricity supplier or pay for your GPUs in bitcoins. This bitcoin scam is therefore increasing the value of fiat currencies, although tis but a drop in the ocean. BTW, you can buy hosting, which includes electricity with bitcoins. You could then set the server on mining. See here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Hosting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 No one knows for certain. But there are a couple of things you could say. Firstly there is some theory (I don't know the name) that says that if something has been around a long time it will probably be around tomorrow. Certainly, something that has been in existence for 2000 years will in all probability be around tomorrow. Something that's only been in existence for a couple of years, well, that's different. The longer something lasts the more tests it has been put through. Secondly the thing with something like gold is it is the amount being added per year is well known and pretty well defined. I guess it's possible that someone could stumble on a huge deposit of the stuff, or that a huge lump could fall from the sky, but it's unlikely. To synthesize it in large quanities is difficult. It's almost impossible for people to create significantly more of the stuff for their own nefarious ends unlike many other fiat currencies. I think both of the above indicate that the probability of gold becoming completely worthless in a short timescale is negligible. Sure it may go up and down, but the probability of it being wiped out completely is remote. I don't deny any of that. I'm just pointing out that Bitcoins presently have value, which is dictated by the market. I would assume either the market is pricing these considerations in or the values are vulnerable to a collapse. I would point out that just holding onto some gold stuff because it is old, shiny and people have always liked it is a pretty flimsy basis though. It's essentially just relying on tradition. It may be likely that the tradition will continue, but commodity prices have been through many collapses, including gold. Now compare that with new fangled computer currency ideas, whose restrict on production is limited by "uncrackable algorithms" and have existed for a couple of years btw have you heard of quantum computing ? It wouldn't matter, as long as everyone else had quantum computers. It isn't that the chains aren't uncrackable, it's that anyone can form a chain to validate the consensus. Unless you have more computing power than all of the rest of users put together - for a continued period - then you won't fool anyone. In fact, you would probably need way over 90% of the power of the swarm to convince the software that something odd isn't happening - if the user kept getting flags saying that the transactions are dodgy, then they would grow concerned. IMO, bitcoins are more susceptible to denial of service attacks than outright theft. If you threw enough noise into the swarm, people would stop transacting in it. However, there may be protection that I am not aware of here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Which is all you need to know. If the above is correct then if bitcoins get rather expensive and people actually wanted to use them rather than trade them on mtgox they'd just start a new chain with no other changes to the software. And then another and another. Of course they would all have the same value, as you suggest, and because their quantity is not limited that value would be zero. Now you might think that the longer chain with the highest difficulty will have the most valuable coins, but the fact is the new chains will quickly catch up in terms of difficulty. I'm not convinced that they would be all treated equally, but you have a good point if they are. People may only want official/original bitcoins and may refuse to accept anything else (even if technically, they are based on the same technology). Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not convinced that they would be all treated equally, but you have a good point if they are. People may only want official/original bitcoins and may refuse to accept anything else (even if technically, they are based on the same technology). Time will tell. how can you tell the difference? (as a layman) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 It does in the area the last fiat was in. The appearance of competing intangible and worthless currencies is a good sign a fiat regime is on the way out, by the by. If state fiat collapses and it leads to a mistrust in software fiat currencies, then ofc, the value could collapse. I don't know if this will or won't happen though, nor whether fiat currencies will collapse any time soon. Who knows, it may become a virtual life raft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 (edited) how can you tell the difference? (as a layman) The software would have a different name. EDIT: It would also only process coins of that category - others would be rejected by the software. Edited May 25, 2011 by Traktion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 The software would have a different name. EDIT: It would also only process coins of that category - others would be rejected by the software. Yes, but how can you tell as a layman? Trusting some softwaee is really just trusting some guy. How do I tell if he's straight up or not? What test can I perform? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yes, but how can you tell as a layman? Trusting some softwaee is really just trusting some guy. How do I tell if he's straight up or not? What test can I perform? You can download it from the authentic source. You can verify the file checksum. That ensures you have the right software. As for whether you trust it or not, you can check the source code, you can discuss your dilemma on the software forum. Ofc, you have to have some trust the word of someone somewhere here, unless you are a programmer and have the desire to check and validate that the software is only doing as it should. That physical stuff in your hand may be the only thing which scratches the 'need to test' itch. I honestly don't know what or how most people will think - how can I? IMO, it depends how 'mad max' you expect it to get and everyone has their own levels of required security. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not convinced that they would be all treated equally, but you have a good point if they are. The more expensive the 'originals' become, the more likely substitutes would be treated equally, assuming they have some actual use. People may only want official/original bitcoins and may refuse to accept anything else (even if technically, they are based on the same technology). Time will tell. You're worrying me now ... Go on, make a prediction for the value of bitcoin (current blockchain) in 1 month, 1 year, 10 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendy Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yes, but how can you tell as a layman? Trusting some softwaee is really just trusting some guy. How do I tell if he's straight up or not? What test can I perform? try it with all other known e-currencies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 The more expensive the 'originals' become, the more likely substitutes would be treated equally, assuming they have some actual use. Each coin standard still has to become established in order to compete. I hear what you are saying, but I'm not certain it would pan out like that. If bytecoins popped into existence by another crowd using the same code base, I am not convinced that it would garner support any more than other digital coins with completely different code bases. Bytecoins could still not be spent as Bitcoins or the reverse. From another perspective, would Zimbabwe printing loads of cash adversely affect the price of Sterling? Rather than devaluing both, I would expect the former to decrease in price relative to the latter. You're worrying me now ... Go on, make a prediction for the value of bitcoin (current blockchain) in 1 month, 1 year, 10 years. I have no idea! I was shocked when the reached $1 parity, but they're already at $7 now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I have no idea! I was shocked when the reached $1 parity, but they're already at $7 now! Go on, stick your neck out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Go on, stick your neck out. Honestly, I have no clue. As a pure guess, I think it may bubble up, with periods of volatility, until all of the coins have been mined. Would I bet anything on it? Nope... nothing more than not selling the bitcoins which I mined anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 http://bitcoinwatch.com/ 4.5 GBP (7 USD) per 1 BC?! Are bitcoins starting to go viral or will they collapse any minute now? I thought they may have peaked at 1 USD, but I couldn't have been more wrong. So, what next for these digital coins, which only exist in the virtual word, through an encrypted digital process? Do they have a serious chance of supplementing physical commodities in the long run? They are certainly easy to store on your PC (no bank needed) and untraceable, so there are distinct advantages. I find the whole thing rather fascinating. P.S. I mined about 100 BC when they worth near worthless (not worth the electricity cost, IIRC) a year ago out of curiosity and speculation. It only cost a week or so of electricity for my PC, so I suppose I'm quids in either way! Traktion, how do I go about bitcoin mining? I am a bit of a dunderhead when it comes to getting these things running. I would like to have a go, but can you give me some very easy instructions? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needsleep Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Honestly, I have no clue. As a pure guess, I think it may bubble up, with periods of volatility, until all of the coins have been mined. Would I bet anything on it? Nope... nothing more than not selling the bitcoins which I mined anyway! There is clearly money to be made if it is a bubble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Honestly, I have no clue. As a pure guess, I think it may bubble up, with periods of volatility, until all of the coins have been mined. Would I bet anything on it? Nope... nothing more than not selling the bitcoins which I mined anyway! I have downloaded the bitcoin application, I guess it is just a wallet. There is an option to 'generate coins'. Do you know what this means? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Traktion, how do I go about bitcoin mining? I am a bit of a dunderhead when it comes to getting these things running. I would like to have a go, but can you give me some very easy instructions? Thanks. I have downloaded the bitcoin application, I guess it is just a wallet. There is an option to 'generate coins'. Do you know what this means? Yup, that's pretty much it. Mining will take a very long time now though, as the difficulty automatically ramps up. It took me about a week of day time processing to find two sets of coins, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes many times that now (I haven't used it in a while as my laptop gets hot!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yup, that's pretty much it. Mining will take a very long time now though, as the difficulty automatically ramps up. It took me about a week of day time processing to find two sets of coins, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes many times that now (I haven't used it in a while as my laptop gets hot!). It would be fun just to have a miner that did a bit of processing in the background. It might not find anything, but it wouldnt do any harm. And where can you go to buy some of these things? Anywhere that accepts a debit card? There is a chance that this might be in the right place at the right time. If currencies start collapsing, something that cannot be created easily might be a better alternative. Can bitcoins be split up into smaller units, like a tenth of a bitcoin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Oh sweet jesus! lsq, you can just go to mtgox.com and just buy some. If you start mining now you'll be up against an army of geeks armed with racks of nvidia GPUs. Have a look at the 'all time chart' before you take the plunge though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Never heard of them. I guess that means theyve got a long way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habeas Domus Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 bitcoin is a scam http://www.quora.com/Is-the-cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-a-good-idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicestersq Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 bitcoin is a scam http://www.quora.com/Is-the-cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-a-good-idea Well that is an interesting article with many good points. It does indeed enrich those lucky enough to be in on it at the start. The thing is, if it does take off, the fact that some people at the start have had a massive advantage, becomes irrelevant. As long as people are using it, that is all that counts. You could also say that there is a similar effect with the allocation of land, someone a long time ago took it, and now most of us have to work to get some. The original theft doesnt invalidate the value of what land is. I am not so sure about the authors point on the exchangeability of the Bitcoin. It appears that there are exchanges with people willing to swap it for money. All money is tradeable just like Bitcoins are being traded. Currencies go up and down in value just like bitcoins are doing at the moment. It will be interesting to see where this goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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