Nationwide -0.2%

[Golden Shower]

HOUSE PRICES STALL IN SEPTEMBER

* UK house prices fell by 0.2% in September

* The annual rate of house price growth in the UK is now 1.8% - its lowest since May 1996

* Softer house price growth and lower interest rates have renewed buyer interest and supported activity

* House prices are likely to remain stable for some time.

Nationwide September

Go on, go negative. You know you want to...

[Guest consa]

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell 0.2 percent on the month in September taking the annual rate of increase to its weakest in more than nine years, the Nationwide building society said on Thursday.

The year-on-year rate of just 1.8 percent was the slowest since May 1996 and took the price of the average home to 156,517 pounds from 157,310 the month before.

House prices also fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in August, leaving them up just 2.3 percent on the year.

Nationwide said that in the three months to September house price growth had stalled completely on the previous three months and was up just 2.7 percent on the year.

http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

[Fancypants]

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell 0.2 percent on the month in September taking the annual rate of increase to its weakest in more than nine years, the Nationwide building society said on Thursday.

The year-on-year rate of just 1.8 percent was the slowest since May 1996 and took the price of the average home to 156,517 pounds from 157,310 the month before.

House prices also fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in August, leaving them up just 2.3 percent on the year.

Nationwide said that in the three months to September house price growth had stalled completely on the previous three months and was up just 2.7 percent on the year.

http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

wow - just watched the review of the daily papers on BBC Breakfast (see Indy & Mail) - as well as an article on property nightmares in Spain. One hell of a bearish day!

[Golden Shower]

wow - just watched the review of the daily papers on BBC Breakfast (see Indy & Mail) - as well as an article on property nightmares in Spain. One hell of a bearish day!

You should have been listening to Radio 5 this morning. Talk about a commune of bears, I left the room crying!

Economy weakening, CCJ rising, why is the FTSE so high...

Makes you wonder about a lot of journos though, they still miss the obvious link. Many people here and on other forums saw the risks a year or so ago.

[Fancypants]

You should have been listening to Radio 5 this morning. Talk about a commune of bears, I left the room crying!

Economy weakening, CCJ rising, why is the FTSE so high...

Makes you wonder about a lot of journos though, they still miss the obvious link. Many people here and on other forums saw the risks a year or so ago.

I must admit that the stuff on TV is already winding me up a tad. So mant short memories - not 6 months ago they were urging people to put their life savings (borrowings!) into housing.

And this has also been a lesson regarding just how powerful TV is - even intelligent people that I know who will not believe anything until they see it on TV, and then they accept it without question. Shocking really.

[Warwickshire Lad]

Unfortunately this drop only takes us back to around April 2005 prices ... there's a very, very long way to go at this rate.

However, this was an actual nominal drop in price, and I hope this is a new trend which will see the nominal price as reported by Nationwide to keep dropping.

[Dicky]

Nationwide is more of a reflection of Southern Counties. If you want more accurate data, check the regional stats, where it is clear Northern UK is much better off than Southern UK. I have pasted the regional chart so you can see how your area is doing.

Not sure sure old chum, its all falling apart.

http://www.reedsrains.co.uk/news.asp#august

THE NORTH OF ENGLAND’S largest independent estate agent, Reeds Rains, has reported a slight increase in property prices since the beginning of the year, according to its July Property Barometer.

The rise of 3.3% since the start of 2005 means that the average house price in the North of England is now £137,264, compared to £132,796 in December 2004.

Reeds Rains has, however, reported a fall in the average house price in July compared to that for June 2005.

Across the whole of the Reeds Rains’ office network there was a 3.7% drop, in the North West in particular there was a drop of 5 %, excluding Manchester and East Lancashire which dropped by 2%.

[marzipan]

spotlight on Manchester (attached)

the reported 404% rise in Mcr is slightly misleading. Over the past ten years lots of abandoned warehouses have been converted into new 'luxury apartments'. Ten years ago, hardly anyone except the students, the very brave and the very foolish lived in the centre of manchester. Now there is a new block of 'exclusive' luxury apartments on every street.

So the only reason the average price in that area has risen is because there are these new expensive new builds. If you remove these new builds out of the calculation, and look at the % rise for all properties that existed before 1995, I think the figures would look a lot different.

We have already seen from reports in east london/docklands that the over supply of new build flats is causing the price of such properties to plummet. Manchesters 404% could be far less if they reported realistic prices rather than sellers inflated asking prices

Edited September 29, 2005 by marzipan

[marzipan]

I like the note at the bottom of the london prices table:

"Please note there is insufficient data for Kensington & Chelsea and City of London in both Q3 2005 & Q2 2005, and for Westminster in Q3 2005."

These are the areas that have shown the largest % falls in recent surveys!! Wonder why they won't include them??!

[large]

The key to the Nationwide statement lies in this comment:

"But she warned that confidence is key and mounting fears about the economy on the back of soaring oil prices could tip the market into a more serious downturn. A lack of affordability, particularly in London and the South-East, will act as a brake on the market, she added."

At last the VIs realise they need to start putting caveats in so that when the market does go south (as they themselves know damn well it will) they will be able to say that they warned people things could be different from the rosy soft landing they've been touting for the past two years. This is the first time I have seen a BS actually say that a crash (serious downturn) is possible, which IMO means it's now inevitable.

[curious1]

Did anyone listen to the Today programme this morning?

The last item had a woman on justifying the drops, pointing to a recovery(or as she put it "not pointing towards a crash") on the basis that.... wait for it.... employment is still strong. Talk about clutching at straws that turn out to be needles... hasn't she noticed the daily toll of job cut announcements.

[echapps]

Regional quarterly numbers courtesy KoN@TMF:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9567651

Encouraging for those of us in the "outer SE", but WTF is going on in Norn Iron? Are all those missing Northern tenners being used to buy houses?

[ETOPS773]

Outer SE, My area

Q3 2004 £186,295

Q3 2005 £185,965 -0.2%

YOY Negative!!!! (...or am I missing something)

Bring it on!

[AteMoose]

Ive Plotted out the latest nationwide data, and marked ever january. As you can see after 2004's large rise in spring the 2005 rise was much lower this year, and we should expect falling prices all the way to January.

in 2004 from the Peak in July to September prices fell from £154,299 to £153,727 = £572

in 2005 from the Peak in July to September prices have fallen from £158,348 to £156,517 = £1,831

ie prices are falling 3.47 times as quickly in autumn 2005 than in autumn 2004

also in 2004 from Peak in July to January prices fell £154,299 to £151,757 = £2,541

2,541 * 3.47 = 8817.27

£158,348 - 8817.27 = £149,530, is this were we will be by january 2006 (i dont think prices will fall quite this fast)? if so this will take us back to May/June 2004 prices by january (which coinsidenly is when i decided to stop looking to buy a house)! Finally what happens next year is critical, i know quite a few people who are thinking of buying next spring, will this help produce a boom next year, or will the falls until january dissuade people>]

Finally looking at the graph, we may also see a small recovary in november this year..

Comments?

Edited September 29, 2005 by moosetea

[uro_who]

On the today programme Fionna Earley or whatever she's called from the Nationwide said that they expected prices to go negative year on year in the early part of next year, but that it would be shortlived as confidence in the economy would bring some energy back to the market.

I agree with the first part, but Christmas is going to be lean on the high street and I would guess that retail job losses will really start to come through in the spring season. I think that with the current economic gloom people will be more cautious then ever in spring, as they pay off their Christmas credit card and heating bills in March.

In my area accepted prices versus last August prices are about 15% down. Which for my target price range is 90k of the asking price and a bigger saving on 90k with interest for 25 years.

Oh yes.

[AteMoose]

Looking at the data i think we may go negative next mounth, september 2005 was ALOT worse than september 2004.... September usually sees a bit of a recovery, however this september was barely better than august... october 2004 saw a massive drop of -£1,568, and the graphs seem to suggest prices are falling three times as fast this year! Perhaps this october wont be as bad as last year, BUT based on last years data we may see drops of upto £5000 over the mounth.

October 2004 saw the Largest Mounth on Mounth drop in the entire Nationwide dataset from Jan 91! So next mounth we can maybe expect fireworks...

However having said that we would need a historically large falls to reach year on year negatives, so perhaps we wont even see this by january.......

Edited September 29, 2005 by moosetea

[jp1]

On the today programme Fionna Earley or whatever she's called from the Nationwide said that they expected prices to go negative year on year in the early part of next year, but that it would be shortlived as confidence in the economy would bring some energy back to the market.

I agree with the first part, but Christmas is going to be lean on the high street and I would guess that retail job losses will really start to come through in the spring season. I think that with the current economic gloom people will be more cautious then ever in spring, as they pay off their Christmas credit card and heating bills in March.

In my area accepted prices versus last August prices are about 15% down. Which for my target price range is 90k of the asking price and a bigger saving on 90k with interest for 25 years.

Oh yes.

Have to say I was gobsmacked when I heard her say she expected further falls and YoY to go -ve in Jan/Feb, [expected the usual 'controlled soft-landing'/'we could be seeing the market turn thanks to IR cuts... yada-yada']

She also attributed the revival in voulmes/agreed sales to deals being struck between sellers/buyers - ie agreed prices are being cut.

It will be interesting when these sales [eventually] feed through to the Land Reg figures - I expect we will see a sudden drop in the figures

Also - where are the Hometrack figures?!!

[Leodhasach]

Looking at the data i think we may go negative next mounth, september 2005 was ALOT worse than september 2004.... September usually sees a bit of a recovery, however this september was barely better than august... october 2004 saw a massive drop of -£1,568, and the graphs seem to suggest prices are falling three times as fast this year! Perhaps this october wont be as bad as last year, BUT based on last years data we may see drops of upto £5000 over the mounth.

Looking at dataOctober is traditionally a VERY quite mounth, so be ready expect large falls next mounth..

I'd say the chances of -ve YoY at the end of November are especially good, because of an alleged +0.9% in 2004's November figure.

Fionnula Earley's commentary sounded a lot more cautious to me this month than in previous months (although still very optimistic IMO) - she sounded as if she was starting to hedge her bets a little.

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

Sky News coverage on this story:

"house prices are still on the slide....................................."

[Leodhasach]

You need a drop of more than 2% from now to get negative in November I think. Possible, but highly improbable at the moment, especially since Q4 2004 was not great and as soon as people see an improving picture in October , they will get scared and jump on the bandwagon again in case they miss the boat again.

I not sure how people will see an improving picture in October? Affordability has improved by 1 or 2K, that's a very tight margin on which to decide to buy or not. Meanwhile September has seen the mainstream media start to seriously question the state of the economy. If the retailers are to be believed, people have not only stopped spending, but have started paying back their credit card debts as well. I see that as a sign that people are less certain regarding their future income security, hardly a climate in which they're going to be too keen to jump on a bandwagon. Especially when the bandwagon, depending on which survey you believe, is either stuck behind a tractor on a steep hill or simply rolling backwards slowly.

[wriggly]

Nationwide average house price = £158000

Govt. average house price = £185000

I don't expect Nationwide to come out with anything other than house prices level (as they cleverly predicted) until prices have fallen a good 10% p.a., closing the gap above.

[DoubleBubbleTrouble]

Looking at the Nationwide data I don't think it's going to go YoY negative till January or February unless something changes and the pace of the price falls increase (which is a possibility). In any case as it stands we have;

Date.,	  Avg pri,		 Indx,   IndxSA, %change in IndxSAOct-04	£152,159	303.5	304.7	0.0%Nov-04	£153,439	306.1	307.5	0.9%Dec-04	£152,623	304.5	307.0	-0.2%Jan-05	£151,757	302.7	307.9	0.3%Feb-05	£152,879	305.0	309.3	0.4%Mar-05	£153,876	307.0	308.6	-0.2%Apr-05	£156,128	311.5	310.6	0.7%May-05	£157,272	313.7	311.6	0.3%Jun-05	£157,791	314.8	311.0	-0.2%Jul-05	£158,348	315.9	311.6	0.2%Aug-05	£157,310	313.8	311.0	-0.2%Sep-05	£156,517	312.2	310.5	-0.2%

Right now we'd need a -1.8% in a month to drag it under... after November 04 drops out it'll be less but still not negative if they stay on -0.2% drops.

On the plus side it looks like their SA adjusted index has finally peaked.

[Warwickshire Lad]

Looking at the Nationwide data I don't think it's going to go YoY negative till January or February unless something changes

I agree, looks like Riser is going to have to change his sig again ...

[The_Equalizer]

Regional quarterly numbers courtesy KoN@TMF:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9567651

Encouraging for those of us in the "outer SE", but WTF is going on in Norn Iron? Are all those missing Northern tenners being used to buy houses?

Funny you should mention the missing millions, but rumour has it (and it is only rumour) that property is being used to wash bent cash. I'm not saying that the Northern Bank raid was used to fund the purchase of property, but it's been suggested that money is being laundered in this way. Also, builders make-overs seem to very popular again. Lots of Victorian and Edwardian properties are having their nice original features replaced by uPVC windows, smooth walls and the dreaded laminate flooring. That'll be an extra £40K then.

Edited September 29, 2005 by The_Equalizer

[erranta]

I think Apollo's ambition is to buy at the peak (locally, I hasten to add). His strategy appears to be excellent IMHO.

May I refer you to the date he joined HPC - says it all really