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Squeezed Middle Here To Stay

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/22/squeezed-middle-here-to-stay

Good article.

The flat lining of western productivity spells the end of the expectation that we'll be better of than our parents and our kids will be better off than us. The 2008 crash ended the rising indebtedness that allowed this fact to be ignored. But the problem of stagnating economies in the west is still here and isn't going away.

No political party or faction of economists knows how to re-ignite the technological growth that drove higher living standards throughout the second half of the 20th century. And no amount of blaming bankers, immigrants, the rich, the poor, boomers, media studies students, welfare scroungers, the elite, China, Europe, America, or anyone else will produce the new inventions and industries required for a richer future.

Despite all the political squabbling we're stuck and pretty much all going nowhere. The risk is the anger of crushed expectations will end up making a bad situation very much worse.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/22/squeezed-middle-here-to-stay

Good article.

The flat lining of western productivity spells the end of the expectation that we'll be better of than our parents and our kids will be better off than us. The 2008 crash ended the rising indebtedness that allowed this fact to be ignored. But the problem of stagnating economies in the west is still here and isn't going away.

No political party or faction of economists knows how to re-ignite the technological growth that drove higher living standards throughout the second half of the 20th century. And no amount of blaming bankers, immigrants, the rich, the poor, boomers, media studies students, welfare scroungers, the elite, China, Europe, America, or anyone else will produce the new inventions and industries required for a richer future.

Despite all the political squabbling we're stuck and pretty much all going nowhere. The risk is the anger of crushed expectations will end up making a bad situation very much worse.

Well yes.

And clearly the only solution is to drastically reduce the size of the state - including welfare.

There really is no other alternative, whether people like it or not.

:blink:

Edited by Game_Over

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Well yes.

And clearly the only solution is to drastically reduce the size of the state - including welfare.

There really is no other alternative, whether people like it or not.

:blink:

I think that'll happen anyway, as a by product of flatlining productivity (taxation grew easily during the post war years when people's paypackets were growing at the same time, there was enough new wealth to satisfy the state and the population. But as the squeeze bites voters will demand tax cuts to compensate for zero pay rises).

The problem is that reducing the state isn't a cure for flatlining productivity. Big government, small government, neither's a guarantee of rejuvenated productivity. Politics is pretty much irrelevant to the question of how to get a flagging industrial revolution going again.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/22/squeezed-middle-here-to-stay

Good article.

The flat lining of western productivity spells the end of the expectation that we'll be better of than our parents and our kids will be better off than us. The 2008 crash ended the rising indebtedness that allowed this fact to be ignored. But the problem of stagnating economies in the west is still here and isn't going away.

No political party or faction of economists knows how to re-ignite the technological growth that drove higher living standards throughout the second half of the 20th century. And no amount of blaming bankers, immigrants, the rich, the poor, boomers, media studies students, welfare scroungers, the elite, China, Europe, America, or anyone else will produce the new inventions and industries required for a richer future.

Despite all the political squabbling we're stuck and pretty much all going nowhere. The risk is the anger of crushed expectations will end up making a bad situation very much worse.

Id love to know how they expect to go nowhere seeing as the total debt levels represent an unprecedented amount of brought forward demand, thats got to be paid for one way or another devaluation / default whatever , that doesnt equate to standing still as any debt junkie asked to pay up would confirm

Edited by georgia o'keeffe

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I think that'll happen anyway, as a by product of flatlining productivity (taxation grew easily during the post war years when people's paypackets were growing at the same time, there was enough new wealth to satisfy the state and the population. But as the squeeze bites voters will demand tax cuts to compensate for zero pay rises).

The problem is that reducing the state isn't a cure for flatlining productivity. Big government, small government, neither's a guarantee of rejuvenated productivity. Politics is pretty much irrelevant to the question of how to get a flagging industrial revolution going again.

Private sector productivity actually increased under Nu Labour, but this increase was entirley wiped out by reduced productivity in the public sector.

And if you over regulate all human activity and take most of what people earn away from them

then there is absolutely no incentive for people to be creative or innovative.

Our economy will never genuinely grow if it remains shackled to the bloated corpse that is Labours public sector power base.

We are still relying on infrastructure built in Victorian times and unless we roll the state back to those kinds of levels there is absolutely no way we are ever going to recover from the position we are now in IMHO

:blink:

Edited by Game_Over

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Private sector productivity actually increased under Nu Labour, but this increase was entirley wiped out by reduced productivity in the public sector.

And if you over regulate all human activity and take most of what people earn away from them

then there is absolutely no incentive for people to be creative or innovative.

Our economy will never genuinely grow if it remains shackled to the bloated corpse that is Labours public sector power base.

We are still relying on infrastructure built in Victorian times and unless we roll the state back to those kinds of levels there is absolutely no way we are ever going to recover from the position we are now in IMHO

:blink:

I think that'll happen anyway, as a by product of flatlining productivity (taxation grew easily during the post war years when people's paypackets were growing at the same time, there was enough new wealth to satisfy the state and the population. But as the squeeze bites voters will demand tax cuts to compensate for zero pay rises).

The problem is that reducing the state isn't a cure for flatlining productivity. Big government, small government, neither's a guarantee of rejuvenated productivity. Politics is pretty much irrelevant to the question of how to get a flagging industrial revolution going again.

??????????????????????????

The article mentions absolutely nothing about flatlining productivity or that its the fault of the welfare state. You are both analyzing the article through preconceived biases.

Rather the article in essence states that as productivity has increased the link between this and rising living standards for all has fundamentally broken. And its happening in our western nations no matter the overall type/basis of the economy - canada, uk, germany, us, japan, etc.

It is self-evident that the rises in productivity have been captured by a small minority while many of the masses see nothing from these gains. This is reflected by substantial increases in gini coefficent in almost every nation.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/income-inequality-around-the-world-is-a-failure-of-capitalism/238837/

Edited by alexw

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Well yes.

And clearly the only solution is to drastically reduce the size of the state - including welfare.

There really is no other alternative, whether people like it or not.

:blink:

Most people on welfare aren't remotely middle class though. If we were on benefits are you suggesting that a couple such as my wife and I ashould have our income of 100 to 110 quid per week(after paying rent and council tax)cut?

Perhaps any real savings would come from cutting PS mega salaries and pensions.

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Crikey, if the papers are starting to advertise moving to Germany for a better life, I'd best get my @rse in gear before everybody gets there before me! Doubt it will happen as many are too lazy to learn the language!

P.S. Great article!

Edited by guitarman001

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:lol:

nail bars is where its at

patent the concept and export them globally, could add about 5 trillion* to the UK GDP by 2015

*OECD Extrapolation based on using a ruler

Edited by georgia o'keeffe

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nail bars is where its at

patent the concept and export them globally, could add about 5 trillion* to the UK GDP by 2015

*OECD Extrapolation based on using a ruler

there must already be an APP for that!?

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Well the councils are starting to replace the double yellow lines and are putting in more parking meters. Then there's more arrows being painted on the roads than you could shake a stick at. A new one is they're now starting to paint car sized white rectangles on the roads to specify where drivers should aim for if turning right at road junctions.

When you think about theres any amount of instructions you can paint on the road surface if there's a will to do that but with all the other roadside architecture and roadside signing being added all over the place sometimes it must start to be difficult for a driver to know where to look for the best outcome at any given time.

Obviously they consider that stuff is the future for investment in the UK and a good use of oil resources.

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Well the councils are starting to replace the double yellow lines and are putting in more parking meters. Then there's more and more arrows being painted on the roads. A new one is they're now starting to paint car sized white rectangles on the roads to specify where drivers should aim for if turning right at road junctions.

When you think about there's any amount of instructions you can paint on the road surface if there's a will to do that but with all the other roadside architecture and roadside signing being added all over the place sometimes it must start to be difficult for a driver to know where to look for the best outcome at any given time.

Obviously they consider that stuff is the future for investment in the UK and a good use of oil resources.

Edited by billybong

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Most people on welfare aren't remotely middle class though. If we were on benefits are you suggesting that a couple such as my wife and I ashould have our income of 100 to 110 quid per week(after paying rent and council tax)cut?

Perhaps any real savings would come from cutting PS mega salaries and pensions.

IMHO there should be one universal benefit, whatever anyones reason for not working

And this benefit should not exceed minimum wage.

How can any society afford to pay people more not to work than it pays people who do work?

How can this ever possibly work in the long run?

:blink:

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??????????????????????????

The article mentions absolutely nothing about flatlining productivity or that its the fault of the welfare state. You are both analyzing the article through preconceived biases.

Rather the article in essence states that as productivity has increased the link between this and rising living standards for all has fundamentally broken. And its happening in our western nations no matter the overall type/basis of the economy - canada, uk, germany, us, japan, etc.

It is self-evident that the rises in productivity have been captured by a small minority while many of the masses see nothing from these gains. This is reflected by substantial increases in gini coefficent in almost every nation.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/income-inequality-around-the-world-is-a-failure-of-capitalism/238837/

And the reason is that any increases in productivity in the private sector have been immediately hoovered up by the state and basically p*ssed up the wall.

You can say what you like, but the only way out of this mess is to drastically reduce the size of the state

And this is exactly what is going to happen

The only question is, will it be a planned transition or will it be forced on the state by bankruptcy.

:blink:

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And the reason is that any increases in productivity in the private sector have been immediately hoovered up by the state and basically p*ssed up the wall.

You can say what you like, but the only way out of this mess is to drastically reduce the size of the state

And this is exactly what is going to happen

The only question is, will it be a planned transition or will it be forced on the state by bankruptcy.

:blink:

Either way it will happen and it won't do much for the alleged value of sterling.

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IMHO there should be one universal benefit, whatever anyones reason for not working

And this benefit should not exceed minimum wage.

How can any society afford to pay people more not to work than it pays people who do work?

How can this ever possibly work in the long run?

:blink:

But this is the big elephant in the room . Our society has been paying more and more people not to work more than those that do work.

It has been building up slowley slowley for years due to the cost's of housing more than anything else and the benefit of being exempt from paying council tax . These two together take up a massive amount of take home pay for the working people add in the high cost's for those that need to travel for work and work does not make sense unless you are a double average wage household or a very high earning single income household.

A universal benefit reguardless of reason for not working sounds good , but if it is lower than the NMW then those people on it are going to be in big trouble. NMW does not put roofs over heads unless a single person lives in a cheap bed sit and eats stale bread and beans. Most NMW earners are the young still at home with parents or the second income from a dual income household the main income being much higher .

If we really did go down the route of benefits being below the NMW we would have to see and live with the sight of young familiys , single mothers , the sick , the frail , the eldley and a few others being thrown out on the street prior to the market rents/mortgages finding a level that would be payable by these people which they might never do anyway .

Quite frankley I do not think any political party in this country have the stomack for that and thinking about it i do not think many ordinary people when it comes to the crunch would have the stomack for it either ( it might be them next ) we are not the USA and unless forced into the above by the country being bankrupted I do not think we will go down that route.

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And the reason is that any increases in productivity in the private sector have been immediately hoovered up by the state and basically p*ssed up the wall.

You can say what you like, but the only way out of this mess is to drastically reduce the size of the state

And this is exactly what is going to happen

The only question is, will it be a planned transition or will it be forced on the state by bankruptcy.

:blink:

Really? and thats happened in USA, israel, UK, italy, australia, new zeland, japan, canada, germany, netherlands, luxembourg, finland, sweden, czech republic, norway, denmark??? and explains the stagnating incomes of the bottom 50% in all these countries??

Edited by alexw

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Rather the article in essence states that as productivity has increased the link between this and rising living standards for all has fundamentally broken.

That is the inevitable result of when capitalism is fettered by artificially constrained supply in key sectors (such as housing). Creating a situation where ever more money chases a limited resource instead of being invested into productive capital, results in guaranteed economic disaster. The irony being that just about the only government that actually seems to get this is china !.

All of the so called "democratic" countries are saddled with electorates where nearly everyone 1) is already on the free money merry-go-round or 2) isn't yet but is dumb enough to think that they will be at some point in the future and so still vote to keep it.

Edited by goldbug9999

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It's a good thing the Middle Classes have looked down on the plebs, chavs and scroungers for so long.

At least they'll know where to land when they join them at the bottom of the pile.

Meanwhile the rich just get richer and richer.

Edited by Olebrum

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Really? and thats happened in USA, israel, UK, italy, australia, new zeland, japan, canada, germany, netherlands, luxembourg, finland, sweden, czech republic, norway, denmark??? and explains the stagnating incomes of the bottom 50% in all these countries??

Yes, it's happened everwhere, including the USA under George Bush and this country under Margaret Thatcher.

:blink:

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But this is the big elephant in the room . Our society has been paying more and more people not to work more than those that do work.

It has been building up slowley slowley for years due to the cost's of housing more than anything else and the benefit of being exempt from paying council tax . These two together take up a massive amount of take home pay for the working people add in the high cost's for those that need to travel for work and work does not make sense unless you are a double average wage household or a very high earning single income household.

A universal benefit reguardless of reason for not working sounds good , but if it is lower than the NMW then those people on it are going to be in big trouble. NMW does not put roofs over heads unless a single person lives in a cheap bed sit and eats stale bread and beans. Most NMW earners are the young still at home with parents or the second income from a dual income household the main income being much higher .

If we really did go down the route of benefits being below the NMW we would have to see and live with the sight of young familiys , single mothers , the sick , the frail , the eldley and a few others being thrown out on the street prior to the market rents/mortgages finding a level that would be payable by these people which they might never do anyway .

Quite frankley I do not think any political party in this country have the stomack for that and thinking about it i do not think many ordinary people when it comes to the crunch would have the stomack for it either ( it might be them next ) we are not the USA and unless forced into the above by the country being bankrupted I do not think we will go down that route.

So national bankruptcy it is then!

:blink:

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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