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http://m.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2011/may/23/housing-slump-weather-blame?cat=money&type=article

Warm weather, a succession of holidays, plus the royal wedding … they're all getting the blame for the spring housing slump

The house price slump is being blamed on the wonderful spring weather. Photograph: David Cheskin/PA

Graham Norwood

guardian.co.uk, Mon 23 May 2011 07.30 BST

Blogpost

The housing market is bracing itself for more price falls after an unexpected slump in sales this spring thanks to economic uncertainty, prolonged good weather and the glut of Bank Holidays.

Miles Shipside, commercial director of Britain's largest property website Rightmove, says the "distraction" of successive long weekends, the holiday atmosphere surrounding the royal wedding plus good weather across much of the country, have sharply cut demand.

"The number of buyers has fallen even faster than the number of sellers and transaction volumes will therefore remain low," he says. "Agents usually see stock turn over more quickly during spring, but this year's slower market suggests stock levels may exceed Rightmove's previous record of 79 properties per branch over the next few months."

Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Lloyds Banking Group and author of the monthly Halifax house price index warns that "the underlying trend in house prices continues to be one of modest decline". He says average UK house prices have dropped 1.5% since the New Year and are now 20% below the pre-downturn peak in the summer of 2007.

Hometrack, a consultancy analysing estate agents' sales data across England and Wales, says average prices have fallen 3.3% in the past year and may drop further "as consumer confidence weakens and household incomes remain under pressure".

It warns that two signs of another downturn are now visible: the typical price agreed by sellers has fallen to only 92.6% of the asking price, and the number of homes being put on the market has risen in recent weeks. These factors "put house prices under renewed downward pressure", says a Hometrack spokesman.

Yet another survey, from LSL Property Services - which owns 570 High Street estate agency branches including Your Move - calls April's sales figures "disappointing", with the holidays having a "significant negative impact" on the market.

This is bad news for sellers, who are typically advised by estate agents to market their homes in the spring to catch the maximum number of buyers in the following weeks.

The website www.propertysnake.co.uk monitors homes when they are first advertised for sale, and then tracks changes to their asking prices. It says no fewer than 210,000 of the estimated 400,000 homes now on sale have reduced their prices.

A Leicester bungalow put on sale in May 2010 for £409,950 is now down to £199,950 – a drop of 51% over a year, believed to be the biggest in the country at present. A terraced house in Bradford, put on the market at £59,950 in January, is priced at £31,950 – a fall of 49%.

Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of eccentric measures being taken by sellers to promote their homes, seen as a sign of a market in trouble.

A Somerset estate agent claims to be offering tickets to next month's Glastonbury Festival if buyers snap up selected homes that have been on his books for months (despite the fact that each ticket has the original holder's photo on it to prevent transfer). At Matlock, Derbyshire, the owner of a six-bedroom house on sale for over a year has dropped the price from £795,000 to £725,000 and has hired a PR firm to promote the home online and in the press – but it remains unsold.

Even the top end of the market outside of London, until recently still performing strongly, is sticking. The vendor of a home in Torquay, identical to a property next door valued at £2m, has been unable to sell even with a £1.8m price tag. He is now offering a further £100,000 off if someone buys in the next three weeks.

Film publicist Kate Bradford this week put her five-bedroom house at Westcliff-on-Sea, Essex, on sale for £1.7m with an estate agent (www.homeofleigh.com, 01702 480033). But she is simultaneously offering to swap the house for a similar-value London home if she can locate someone happy to enter into the unorthodox deal. She is also willing to add her father's home in Italy, worth an estimated €2m, if a London owner of a larger property is interested in a swap for her family's two homes.

"The market's not great at the moment, is it? I talked the idea over with my estate agent and we thought this was a good tactic to maximise the chance of moving," says Bradford, who was in charge of UK publicity for the Oscar-winning movie Slumdog Millionaire.

The only exception to the housing market woe is in central London itself, where homes continue to sell at prices equal to, or even above, pre-recession levels.

The market in areas such as Mayfair, Notting Hill and Kensington is dominated by high net-worth buyers, many from overseas, who are attracted by favourable exchange rates. Some agents are even opening new offices to get a share of Britain's only booming housing market.

Top-end estate agent Knight Frank says house prices in prime areas of the capital have risen by an average of £767 every day over the last year. Liam Bailey, its head of research, says: "The dislocation between the central London market and the wider UK market has widened into a chasm."

:lol:

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I'm waiting for the first EA to blame the Rapture panic and the imminent coming of Jesus for the lack of viewings....

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I'm waiting for the first EA to blame the Rapture panic and the imminent coming of Jesus for the lack of viewings....

Yep viewing should go up now the end of the world went by at the weekend :lol:

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We should start a thread on who can invent to best/worst excuse for a property not selling.

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Blaming lack of sales on the weather is just mental.

"Darling, Lets' look for our dream home - we really need to find our forever house soon - there's loads of important things we need to consider, such as schools for the kids, access to work, garden, number of bedrooms, I've done the sums and... "

".....Are you serious? Look up there! What do you see?" *points to the sky*

" Err..., clouds?"

"Yes, there are clouds in the sky. clouds dear ! And not just clouds....." *Licks finger and puts in the air*

"There is also a fair to moderate south-easterly breeze. These are totally unsuitable conditions to be researching our housing requirements for the next 10 years, we should be flying kites instead, you silly woman."

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I'm surprised the death of Bin Laden, Obama's state visit to UK/Ireland and the Grimsvotn Volcano have not been materialised as influences yet

that and chris Huhne's speeding offences, Ed Milliband's baby and the AV referendum result

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The prices falls for the next month or two will probably be blamed on this new volcanic cloud coming from Iceland :rolleyes:

Edited by pajd

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uncertainty over special injunctions and footballers, Lional Messi's form going into the champions league final, and Chelsea's future manager

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"The dislocation between the central London market and the wider UK market has widened into a chasm."

I wonder if these continued increases in prime London property values, will help disguise the real average drop going on in the rest of the UK market when statistics are released?

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an unseasonal outbreak of greenfly disporportionately hitting pansies

concerns over rural bee populations

worries over swine flu

concerns over delayed delivery of the new Boeing Dreamliner airliners to Singapore Airlines

the state of monkey nut production in the Brazilian interior and its impact on stability of regional governance in Central and South America via international price controls

confusion over video standards - will Blu Ray break the dominance of DVD?

the state of Tom Cruise's marriage

is Pippa Middleton fitter than Kate?

the impact of budget airlines on the suitcase market

and finally the meltdown of the financial health of donkey sanctuaries in greece (this really concerns the upper-middle classes you know)

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So this is the same good weather that was brining all the buyers out of the woodwork only 14 days ago??

10 May 2011 Last updated at 10:11

House buyers encouraged by sunny weather, says Rics April produced some of the warmest temperatures on record in the UK for that month

Good weather in April led to an increased number of viewings from potential UK house buyers, according to surveyors

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Woah! Roll it back, everyone knows that the reason house prices slump and nothing gets sold is because of the bloody SNOW :lol: ..what ever next, the bankrupcy of the Uk high street due to light drizzle?

It's nothing to do with market forces, unemployment, credit contriction..ohhhh no, nothing at all, its the weather, get back on message please. B)

Edited by JustAnotherProle

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Woah! Roll it back, everyone knows that the reason house prices slump and nothing gets sold is because of the bloody SNOW :lol: ..what ever next, the bankrupcy of the Uk high street due to light drizzle?

No, that was because of the Reign of Gordon Brown :rolleyes:

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So this is the same good weather that was brining all the buyers out of the woodwork only 14 days ago??

10 May 2011 Last updated at 10:11

House buyers encouraged by sunny weather, says Rics April produced some of the warmest temperatures on record in the UK for that month

Good weather in April led to an increased number of viewings from potential UK house buyers, according to surveyors

LOL, exactly.

Goodness only knows what this week's wind is going to do to the market.

this was my favourite bit from the article:

'At Matlock, Derbyshire, the owner of a six-bedroom house on sale for over a year has dropped the price from £795,000 to £725,000 and has hired a PR firm to promote the home online and in the press – but it remains unsold.'

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There is of course the dust from Spain, that will have caused a few people to wait. How about a new season of the Apprentice?

This weekend the CL final will stop all the Manc U fans to stay in all day drinking in the run up to and after their defeat.

Come autumn it will be the wrong sort of leaves landing on the housing ladder. Then we can get round to the snowy winter again and next year we'll have the Lympics and Euros.

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This weekend the CL final will stop all the Manc U fans to stay in all day drinking in the run up to and after their defeat.

that'll only affect London/SE tho ;)

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Once a publicist always a publicist :lol:

Anyone know how its going for Kate? Sounds like she is desperate to get back to London :rolleyes:

"Film publicist Kate Bradford this week put her five-bedroom house at Westcliff-on-Sea, Essex, on sale for £1.7m with an estate agent (www.homeofleigh.com, 01702 480033). But she is simultaneously offering to swap the house for a similar-value London home if she can locate someone happy to enter into the unorthodox deal. She is also willing to add her father's home in Italy, worth an estimated €2m, if a London owner of a larger property is interested in a swap for her family's two homes.

"The market's not great at the moment, is it? I talked the idea over with my estate agent and we thought this was a good tactic to maximise the chance of moving," says Bradford, who was in charge of UK publicity for the Oscar-winning movie Slumdog Millionaire"

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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