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Protecting The Housing Market Means A Lost Generation Of Buyers

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Well **** a duck, in The Guardian of all places.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2011/may/21/protecting-housing-market-lost-generation-buyers

choice quotes:

"The Jenga tower that is the British property market (economy rubbish, real incomes falling, house prices remaining at near record levels and rents rising) wobbles but just won't fall over. There are simply too many interests – from the banks and existing homeowners through to landlords – determined to keep it standing at any cost.

But they are protecting something that is, viewed globally, uniquely dysfunctional."

and

"The real lesson of the disastrous housing booms around the world (viz Britain, Ireland, the US, and currently the worst, Australia and New Zealand) is that house prices are purely a function of the amount of finance that can be raised against a property. The crippling cycle of boom and bust is a consequence of financial deregulation, so beloved of Anglo Saxon economies and so destructive. Forget supply and demand. Hose money over the housing market and prices will go up; turn the hose off and prices will come down"

and

"With less money lent against property, prices will gradually fall in real terms. But, while that happens, there will be a lost and increasingly angry generation of thwarted buyers."

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It's by Patrick Collinson.

In his blogs he criticizes BTL in general and tax breaks for BTL in particular and highlights priced out first time buyers, and the sub-heading on a blog of his last July said "New rules forcing mortgage lenders to check on a borrower's income should be welcomed, even if the self-employed suffer".

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"One proposal is for a steep increase in house building. A big increase in new-build, in areas of excess demand (which must mean building on the green belt), will help quell UK prices."

yep - down south rentals and house prices, in cases, don't seem so out of kilter, in some cases; rents are just too hig too, so need more building

where I am, OK so ion nice areas house prices are high, rents are low, so we get some compensation

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Bloody hell. The truth. The media actually reporting it. I am amazed. That deserves reprinting in full.

Protecting the housing market means a lost generation of buyers

Too many people have too much to lose from a falling housing market, but it means excluding a generation

Patrick Collinson Saturday 21 May 2011

Rents have risen to an all time high after the "strongest" April on record, crowed the biggest letting agency in the country this week. Great if you're a greedy landlord, but yet another dollop of misery for tenants, few of whom are enjoying pay rises, and all of whom are seeing food and fuel bills rise relentlessly.

Rents are now 4.4% higher than a year ago across the UK, according to LSL Property Services, which owns Your Move and Reeds Rains. The picture is worst in London where rents are now 7.9% higher than a year ago.

The Jenga tower that is the British property market (economy rubbish, real incomes falling, house prices remaining at near record levels and rents rising) wobbles but just won't fall over. There are simply too many interests – from the banks and existing homeowners through to landlords – determined to keep it standing at any cost.

But they are protecting something that is, viewed globally, uniquely dysfunctional. A report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation this week said that, on current trends, it won't be long before only one in four couples will be able to afford a home. Three-quarters will be forced to rent (or as one particularly disingenuous buy-to-let lender called it last week, the new "tenure of choice" for young adults).

The property-owning democracy is turning into a rotten borough, said the report's author, Professor Mark Stephens of the University of Glasgow. The only ones able to afford the deposit on a home will be those who can turn to rich parents for a leg-up, which will "increasingly entrench the economic privilege of the children of the better off."

The report calls for radical action, although its proposals are couched so as not to scare the type of chumps who lost all sanity over inheritance tax and who in turn voted for yet another tax break for the super-rich.

One proposal is for a steep increase in house building. A big increase in new-build, in areas of excess demand (which must mean building on the green belt), will help quell UK prices. But we also have to recognise that in Ireland new-build was almost entirely unconstrained, yet the housing market there went as bonkers as ours.

The real lesson of the disastrous housing booms around the world (viz Britain, Ireland, the US, and currently the worst, Australia and New Zealand) is that house prices are purely a function of the amount of finance that can be raised against a property. The crippling cycle of boom and bust is a consequence of financial deregulation, so beloved of Anglo Saxon economies and so destructive. Forget supply and demand. Hose money over the housing market and prices will go up; turn the hose off and prices will come down.

We have seen in recent weeks an easing of mortgage availability, with an upward creep in the number of 90% loans. But, in reality, banks' total lending will remain constrained for years to come, while young adults who put themselves through strict new "affordability" criteria will find they don't qualify for a mortgage, even at 90%.

The result? With less money lent against property, prices will gradually fall in real terms. But, while that happens, there will be a lost and increasingly angry generation of thwarted buyers.

Good on you Patrick.

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but how long?

"The result? With less money lent against property, prices will gradually fall in real terms. But, while that happens, there will be a lost and increasingly angry generation of thwarted buyers."

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but how long?

"The result? With less money lent against property, prices will gradually fall in real terms. But, while that happens, there will be a lost and increasingly angry generation of thwarted buyers."

About a generation I'd say....

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Is it simply because we're all just a bit sh!t at things now. Of course we know the vested interests benefit (banks, developers etc) from high prices... but average Joe just can't compete world-wide now, perhaps? Can't do anything 'real'/useful or think for himself, uses housing as the only way he 'thinks' he can make money?

I hate to bang on about Germany... but two mechanical engineers of theirs have been at my pals work the last few months contracting - I was picking him up so we could go play snooker and got talking to them for a half hour. ANYWAY, they could speak another two languages and their skills with welding were excellent - much better than what these other guys were doing by the looks of it. I arrived in time to hear the Germans berating them for not doing good enough. My mate says the British workers are just lazy whereas the Germans take pride in their work and he's really been invigorated by it!! In fact he's started to learn German with me!

I still think we need revolutionary change - get rid of cancerous HPI and get industry started up again.

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Wrong emphasis. The "lost generation of buyers" is nothing compared to the destruction of the productive society, and a generation denied decent job opportunities.

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Wrong emphasis. The "lost generation of buyers" is nothing compared to the destruction of the productive society, and a generation denied decent job opportunities.

+1, we could be fooked long-term.

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My mate says the British workers are just lazy whereas the Germans take pride in their work and he's really been invigorated by it!! In fact he's started to learn German with me!

I still think we need revolutionary change - get rid of cancerous HPI and get industry started up again.

reason british workers are lazy is because production and reward have been disassociated (as you imply), what's the point, you get punished for being any good in this country!?!

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+1, we could be fooked long-term.

well, for the 10 years it takes for the housing market to correct, same difference really, a lost generation or 2

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FT in London at 43 - quite likely no children before getting settled.

Lost generations in more than one way.

Still look on the bright side the older generations will be able to sit happily in their bought and paid for (outside of the bubble properties) utterly unhindered by nimby development, grandchildren or even their own children (too busy working to keep up with inflation and living costs) disturbing them from their tranquil passage towards death.

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FT in London at 43 - quite likely no children before getting settled.

Lost generations in more than one way.

Still look on the bright side the older generations will be able to sit happily in their bought and paid for (outside of the bubble properties) utterly unhindered by nimby development, grandchildren or even their own children (too busy working to keep up with inflation and living costs) disturbing them from their tranquil passage towards death.

candidly they are flummoxed as to why they haven't got grandchildren yet, can't work it out

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There is NO WAY I will be waiting ten years - I've already given myself the deadline of another 2 then I'm out!

what you gonna do? Commit economic suicide?

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Well **** a duck, in The Guardian of all places.

http://www.guardian....neration-buyers

choice quotes:

"The Jenga tower that is the British property market (economy rubbish, real incomes falling, house prices remaining at near record levels and rents rising) wobbles but just won't fall over. There are simply too many interests – from the banks and existing homeowners through to landlords – determined to keep it standing at any cost.

But they are protecting something that is, viewed globally, uniquely dysfunctional."

and

"The real lesson of the disastrous housing booms around the world (viz Britain, Ireland, the US, and currently the worst, Australia and New Zealand) is that house prices are purely a function of the amount of finance that can be raised against a property. The crippling cycle of boom and bust is a consequence of financial deregulation, so beloved of Anglo Saxon economies and so destructive. Forget supply and demand. Hose money over the housing market and prices will go up; turn the hose off and prices will come down"

and

"With less money lent against property, prices will gradually fall in real terms. But, while that happens, there will be a lost and increasingly angry generation of thwarted buyers."

The Guardianista's must be terrorists or something. Such comments are tantamount to treason on Fantasy Island!

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I still think we need revolutionary change - get rid of cancerous HPI and get industry started up again.

too late for that, we've just legally bound ourselves to 20 more years without industry, any profit will be soaked up by euro carbon fines

HUHNE’S GREEN SCHEMES THREATEN BRITISH INDUSTRY

I suppose the only consolation is we probably wouldn't have been able to afford the carbon fuels to use in the first place

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"With less money lent against property, prices will gradually fall in real terms. But, while that happens, there will be a lost and increasingly angry generation of thwarted buyers."

That assumes they don't all leave the country, right now theres recession everywhere but if house prices fall in Europe and America but not here I think a lot of younger people will be packing their bags - another 10 years renting some shitty apartment here, or buying a nice villa somewhere warmer, it's not a hard choice to make.

Whos going to pay for your public sector pension when that happens?

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FT in London at 43 - quite likely no children before getting settled.

Lost generations in more than one way.

Still look on the bright side the older generations will be able to sit happily in their bought and paid for (outside of the bubble properties) utterly unhindered by nimby development, grandchildren or even their own children (too busy working to keep up with inflation and living costs) disturbing them from their tranquil passage towards death.

No worries. The non-white British population in the UK has grown from 10% to 15% in the past ten years. Someone's having babies.

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No worries. The non-white British population in the UK has grown from 10% to 15% in the past ten years. Someone's having babies.

Maybe part of the plan.

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reason british workers are lazy is because production and reward have been disassociated (as you imply), what's the point, you get punished for being any good in this country!?!

+1

Financial comfort is less and less correlated to ability and/or hard work.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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