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mattyfc

Uk Retail Sales Up 1.1% M/m

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=256

Retail sales in April 2011 compared to April 2010 saw:

sales volumes increase by 2.8 per cent

the value of retail sales increase by 6.2 per cent

All sectors showed year on year volume and value growth apart from household goods stores where sales volumes fell by 3.5 per cent and sales values fell by 1.8 per cent. Possible reasons for this growth were the royal wedding and warm weather.

With the solid employment numbers yesterday & this the BOE will start running of excuses to hold rates soon.

Edited by mattyfc

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All sectors showed year on year volume and value growth apart from household goods stores where sales volumes fell by 3.5 per cent and sales values fell by 1.8 per cent. Possible reasons for this growth were the royal wedding and warm weather.

trollface-n1297246220790.jpg

Office for national statistics.

Haha.

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=256

With the solid employment numbers yesterday & this the BOE will start running of excuses to hold rates soon.

It was the warm weather and the royal wedding that did it, according to the BBC. Coincidentally, weren't these the same factors that were blamed for the fall in the housing market?

Edited by Tenubracon

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It was the warm weather and the royal wedding that did it, according to the BBC. Coincidentally, weren't these the same factors that were blamed for the fall in the housing market?

Yes, Bloomberg too are saying it was all down to the warm weather and the wedding.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-19/u-k-retail-sales-rise-more-than-forecast-on-warm-weather-royal-wedding.html

April Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast on Warm Weather, Royal Wedding

U.K. retail sales rose more than economists forecast in April as warm weather and the extra bank holiday for the Royal Wedding boosted consumer spending.

Sales including auto fuel climbed 1.1 percent from March, when they rose a revised 0.3 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The increase was the biggest for an April since 2002 and exceeded the 0.8 percent median forecast of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, sales increased 2.8 percent.

Britons spent more during two consecutive holiday weekends at the end of April to mark Easter and the wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton. The Bank of England held its key interest rate at a record low this month on concern that an increase in borrowing costs would dent spending and undermine the recovery, minutes of the decision yesterday showed.

“We got a boost last month from Easter and the wedding, but we’re going to treat it as a one-off,” said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “If we get back to a sluggish trend for consumers and investment, rates could be on hold past November.”

The pound pared its loss against the dollar after the data were published. It traded at $1.6175 as of 9:31 a.m. in London, little changed on the day.

Food Sales

Excluding fuel, sales rose 1.2 percent in April from the previous month and were up 2.7 percent on the year, the statistics office said. Food sales jumped 2.2 percent on the month, the most since May 2008, clothing sales increased 3.2 percent and sales at household-goods stores rose 1.5 percent.

The statistics office said it was an “unusual month,” citing the impact of the warmest April on record, the extra bank holiday and the wedding on April 29.

An index of consumer confidence fell to 43 in April from 45 in March, Nationwide Building Society said today. A measure of shoppers’ willingness to spend on household goods and major purchases fell 5 points to 62.

Mothercare Plc (MTC), a retailer of clothes for children and pregnant women, said yesterday it will shut more than a quarter of its U.K. stores and expand overseas after full-year profit fell 72 percent. Alliance Boots Holdings Ltd., owner of the largest U.K. drugstore chain, said May 16 it is “planning for consumer demand to be subdued” over the coming year.

“An increase in bank rate in current circumstances could adversely affect consumer confidence, leading to an exaggerated impact on both spending and firms’ perceptions of their desired productive capacity,” the majority of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee said yesterday.

BOE Rate

The central bank held the key rate at 0.5 percent this month, even as the fastest inflation in more than two years squeezes household finances. Consumer prices rose an annual 4.5 percent in April, the fastest since October 2008.

The retail sales deflator, a measure of changes in shop prices, rose to 3.7 percent in April from 3.4 percent in March, the statistics office said. Excluding auto fuel, the deflator rose to 2.7 percent, the highest since June 1996, from 1.9 percent. The deflator for food sales jumped to 4.6 percent from 4.1 percent.

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I would like to point out that all the shops were empty on the wedding day and half the country was on holiday during the bank holiday / royal wedding period. How does this boost retail sales exactly?

There is a clear media narrative that UK data is poor and as a result IR should not rise. This is nothing but VI propaganda to support the housing market.

If you look at the employment data, 416k extra jobs have been created y/y. The March 3m/3m were monster with 170k jobs created, in April the numbers employed increased by a further 10k. The claimant count figures blew out due to a change is who is counted in them (single parents).

Retail sales rose 0.3% in March despite the consensus being -0.5% and have now risen 1.1% in April. Results from Next, M&S, Sainsbury’s, John Lewis etc all support the view that consumer spending is subdued but is growing.

Negative data is confined to our “GDP” figures. These have clearly been distorted by the construction numbers and the mining and quarrying part of Industrial production. The released figures are clearly nonsense.

Every piece of data released is spun in a negative way (deliberately?) to give the BOE ammunition to hold rates. The only possible motivation for this is to prevent further declines in house prices becoming entrenched. Halifax , Natiowide and the land registry are trending down and an IR increase or two will give them the push needed for sustained falls.

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It was the warm weather and the royal wedding that did it, according to the BBC. Coincidentally, weren't these the same factors that were blamed for the fall in the housing market?

everybody spent their housing deposit on royal wedding tat, to build a royal shrine in their new house that they can't afford anymore.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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