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Jim Rogers On Bbc Hardtalk

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Apologies if this is a re-post, or the interview was a repeat, I caught it late last night and thought it was very interesting.

To quote Jim Rogers.. "Why would I put my money in the US or the UK, they are bankrupt" (or similar)..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/hardtalk/default.stm

Edit:

Full program on iPlayer:

Hardtalk - Jim Rogers

Edited by stew

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Apologies if this is a re-post, or the interview was a repeat, I caught it late last night and thought it was very interesting.

To quote Jim Rogers.. "Why would I put my money in the US or the UK, they are bankrupt" (or similar)..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/hardtalk/default.stm

Edit:

Full program on iPlayer:

Hardtalk - Jim Rogers

WOW!

Truly shocking. Watch it -- and send the link to all your friends to watch it....... Prepare for Armageddon.

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WOW!

Truly shocking. Watch it -- and send the link to all your friends to watch it....... Prepare for Armageddon.

Well, prepare for a very difficult 20 to 30 years anyway.

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Does he have anything to say about his recommendations to invest in Iceland prior to their criminal collapse? Thought not.

Snake oil salesman (very rich one, obviously).

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Does he have anything to say about his recommendations to invest in Iceland prior to their criminal collapse? Thought not.

Snake oil salesman (very rich one, obviously).

Yes

He was uncannily accurate with nearly all his predictions. He made Suker look like the complete di#k he is.

Your right about iceland, ive already started investing in the krona and looking at the growth areas of their economy.

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Your right about iceland, ive already started investing in the krona and looking at the growth areas of their economy.

I've been thinking about that for a while, how do you do it?

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I've been thinking about that for a while, how do you do it?

Simply open a currency trading a/c with one of the many traders.

Be careful if you are dealing in large amounts though. I have used a specialist currency small payment dealer for some recent imports (under US$10,000) but have gone through my own bank for priority payments over this amount even although I have lost upto 2 cents in exchange. This is USD

I have recently closed my USD account as the banks have started to pile on the charges.

I have used IDEALING for all my share/other misc dealings which I have found to be very good. There are so many small currency traders (too many?) that it is difficult to know which is the best and which ones are solid. Being registered means very little.

ISK was difficult to trade until recently. Current mid price is around 1.86 to GBP and is not flutuating very much at the moment, but they are debt free.

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Your right about iceland, ive already started investing in the krona and looking at the growth areas of their economy.

If you're going to invest in krona make sure they're Norwegian krona. You can't argue with 5 billion barrels of oil.

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If you're going to invest in krona make sure they're Norwegian krona. You can't argue with 5 billion barrels of oil.

The problem with it is that a lot of people have bought kronas for this very reason. Not knowing anything about it I would worry that it is overvalued.

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Simply open a currency trading a/c with one of the many traders.

Be careful if you are dealing in large amounts though. I have used a specialist currency small payment dealer for some recent imports (under US$10,000) but have gone through my own bank for priority payments over this amount even although I have lost upto 2 cents in exchange. This is USD

I have recently closed my USD account as the banks have started to pile on the charges.

I have used IDEALING for all my share/other misc dealings which I have found to be very good. There are so many small currency traders (too many?) that it is difficult to know which is the best and which ones are solid. Being registered means very little.

ISK was difficult to trade until recently. Current mid price is around 1.86 to GBP and is not flutuating very much at the moment, but they are debt free.

Thanks for this. When I enter ISK I get Island Sky Australia Ltd :blink:.

I am working on the assumption their financial situation will be healthier than just about anywhere else now that they have defaulted on their foreign obligations. Could you recommend a good place where one could get proper financial data on Iceland?

Don't they have capital controls in place now?

Thanks.

W

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If you're going to invest in krona make sure they're Norwegian krona. You can't argue with 5 billion barrels of oil.

The sovereign bonds are interesting.

It is always best to lend money to people who don't really need it in my opinion.

I do accept _w_'s point about the risk of overvaluation. The NOK might be 20% overvalued but there is a 99% chance that you will get your money back.

The EUR might only be 10% overvalued but there is at least 50% chance that you won't get your money back if you have lent it to the Hellenic Republic by buying their bonds. Not too bad a risk / reward now but pretty terrible for those who bought bonds at around par 2 years ago.

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The EUR might only be 10% overvalued but there is at least 50% chance that you won't get your money back if you have lent it to the Hellenic Republic by buying their bonds. Not too bad a risk / reward now but pretty terrible for those who bought bonds at around par 2 years ago.

And even when you get back your euros, chances are they probably won't buy you much.

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Strange interview in some ways. If I heard correctly:-

* He doesn't manage other's money only his own

* He doesn't recommend people buy gold and silver right now (due to price run up)

* He fully accepts China will suffer major setbacks

* He's short some emerging markets including India

* He thinks China urban coastal residential real estate is a bubble

He carefully nuances what he says giving an overall impression but with more caveats than an RBS annual report.

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He is correct that China and co will grow but I wouldn't agree with his views that the USA & Europe will fall.

What ultimately creates wealth is labour creating capital. This process can only happen if you have good property laws which the US and Europe have had for over a hundred years. It's the reason why they have been the richest.

Well the east has joined the party with good property laws. Hence they will grow to roughly equal the west.

Now the second most important factor is how efficiently labour can create wealth. That is called productivity.

When an economy grows it means it is getting more productive (assuming constant labour force).

Productivity in the west is very high and still quite poor in the east. The east will improve but will they surpass the productivity of the west?

That depends on how much the west wants to cripple its productivity with bad laws

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He carefully nuances what he says giving an overall impression but with more caveats than an RBS annual report.

Had it occurred to you that its not as simple as can be explained on a 25 minute interview.

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Good interview. I like the way the interviewer gradually came to the conclusion (correctly) that all paper will eventually BURN.

It's a bonfire of the currencies.

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He is correct that China and co will grow but I wouldn't agree with his views that the USA & Europe will fall.

What ultimately creates wealth is labour creating capital. This process can only happen if you have good property laws which the US and Europe have had for over a hundred years. It's the reason why they have been the richest.

Well the east has joined the party with good property laws. Hence they will grow to roughly equal the west.

Now the second most important factor is how efficiently labour can create wealth. That is called productivity.

When an economy grows it means it is getting more productive (assuming constant labour force).

Productivity in the west is very high and still quite poor in the east. The east will improve but will they surpass the productivity of the west?

That depends on how much the west wants to cripple its productivity with bad laws

I agree with what you are saying but having spent some time in the developing world I would add that the misallocation of capital is a major factor.

Corruption etc will be a drag on these places for years unless China has a revolution/benevolent dictatorship i dont have long term faith.

Looking at us in the UK and US I always think of Simon Johnson the former IMF chap.

"There comes a time in every economic crisis, or more specifically, in every struggle to recover from a crisis, when someone steps up to the podium to promise the policies that — they say — will deliver you back to growth. The person has political support, a strong track record, and every incentive to enter the history books. But one nagging question remains. Can this person, your new economic strategist, really break with the vested elites that got you into this much trouble?"

Having been in Tunisia for the revolution run-up I can tell you that one group bought everything (30+% GDP) with cheap bank loans, business become unprofitable, houses became so expensive that it made the UK look affordable in comparison. The rich got richer so rich they just left things rot/closed as there was no need to employ anyone as low rates and inflation made more money than the actual underlying business. People could just about eat but there was no upward mobility like in the 1970's once the inflation started to get going that was it revolution.

So unless we let the indebted take a bath I dont see a bright future for us either I thought our new government would do it but they have not and are now too far down the line to take the political risk to do so. The other party offer a worse scenario of same + more spending so its not looking good, we seem to have too low interest rates + too high asset prices + too high taxes on these assets + a banking system that is dependant on the previous = Zombie-land.

Really its quite amazing the riots have not already started en masse.

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Really its quite amazing the riots have not already started en masse.

No to me. Have you seen the amount of arms and hardware the police wear these days?

You need to be very brave to start rioting en masse in 2011. The political classes won't accept the disruption that was caused in the 60s and 70s. They have learned since then and the result is an army of Robocops to batter the rioters hard and fast.

:ph34r:

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Had it occurred to you that its not as simple as can be explained on a 25 minute interview.

It has occurred to me, and clearly to Mr Rogers too, that it's not as simple as 'buy gold and silver'.

Hope that helps.

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I did watch this ..

All his points are fair in long term..

But sometimes i feel .. that he is too clever and disguising and making people fear

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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