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exiges

Claimant Count Up 12K Unemployment Down

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I predict bizarrely the public sector will be seeing increases despite a "freeze".. and the claimant count will be down due to number massaging, and the unemployment rate will have gone down, masked by an increase in part time staff.

Edited by exiges

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Unemployment

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12

The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for the three months to February 2011 was 70.7 per cent, up 0.2 on the quarter. The number of people in employment aged 16 and over increased by 143,000 on the quarter and by 390,000 on the year to reach 29.23 million. The number of people in employment is 331,000 lower than the pre-recession peak of 29.56 million recorded for the three months to May 2008. The quarterly increase in employment was driven by full-time employment which increased by 140,000 on the quarter to reach 21.30 million. The number of men in full-time employment increased by 95,000 to reach 13.65 million and the number of women in full-time employment increased by 45,000 to reach 7.65 million.

The unemployment rate for the three months to February 2011 was 7.8 per cent of the economically active population, down 0.1 on the quarter. The total number of unemployed people fell by 17,000 over the quarter to reach 2.48 million. The number of unemployed men fell by 31,000 on the quarter to reach 1.45 million but the number of unemployed women increased by 14,000 to reach 1.03 million. The number of people unemployed for up to 12 months fell by 29,000 to reach 1.63 million but the number of people unemployed for over 12 months increased by 11,000 to reach 847,000.

Wage inflation

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=10

Average earnings growth including bonuses increased in the year to March 2011, from the February 2011 rate of 2.1 per cent to 2.3 per cent in March 2011.Growth in average earnings excluding bonuses (regular pay) decreased from the February 2011 rate of 2.2 per cent to 2.1 per cent in March 2011.

In the year to March, pay growth (including bonuses) in the private sector stood at 2.2 per cent compared with 2.4 per cent in the public sector. Excluding bonus payments, growth in the private sector stood at 1.9 per cent compared with 2.5 per cent in the public sector.

Edited by exiges

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Claimant count up 12.4k more than the consensus of 0.4k!

Is it about 6 months after graduates finished their course ? That'd make the numbers jump a bit.

Good to see some of the public sector cuts are biting

The number of people in public sector employment was 6.20 million in December 2010, down 45,000

from September 2010. The number of people in private sector employment was 22.96 million, up

83,000 from September 2010.

However, looks like the management are culling front line and saving their own high-paid hides:

Average total pay in the public sector, excluding financial services, was £468 per week in March

2011. In the three months to March 2011 total pay in the public sector, excluding financial services,

rose by 2.3 per cent on a year earlier.

Edited by exiges

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Claimant count up 12.4k more than the consensus of 0.4k!

That's pretty huge isn't it?

Seems rather strange that the number of people working is up 10K according to the ILO unemployment rate is down to 7.7% yet the claimant count has risen 10K. Pretty good figures really, average pay also up more than expected. Confirms the huge rise in employment from Q4 to Q1 (+170k~) which makes a mockery of the ONS output figures.

I think you will find the claimant count answer is that the Government have moved the benefits system around specifically the eligibility for single-parent benefits. This group is now showing up in the claimant count figures when before they did not.

Edit info from the WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703421204576330661923469094.html

However, the more up-to-date measure of the number of people claiming the Jobseeker's Allowance jobless benefit increased by 12,400 in April, the largest rise since January 2010, following a revised 6,400 increase in March, the ONS said. The claimant count rate also rose to 4.6% from 4.5%.

However, the claimant count figures were again lifted by people, mostly women, who were no longer eligible to claim benefits as a lone parent.

Edited by mattyfc

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I predict bizarrely the public sector will be seeing increases despite a "freeze"..

Or just those champagine slurping socialists in the public sector earning under £21k enjoying wage increases at half the rate of inlfation?!

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Or just those champagine slurping socialists in the public sector earning under £21k enjoying wage increases at half the rate of inlfation?!

lets not forget the amazing accelerator affect of pay scales.

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However, looks like the management are culling front line and saving their own high-paid hides:

Average total pay in the public sector, excluding financial services, was £468 per week in March

2011. In the three months to March 2011 total pay in the public sector, excluding financial services,

rose by 2.3 per cent on a year earlier.

Given the amount still being allowed to earn over £100k a year, I'm suprised it isn't higher.

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lets not forget the amazing accelerator affect of pay scales.

Pay scales can cut both ways, i.e. once you've reached the end point of your scale, that's it. If you want more you have to apply for a higher grade position (which isn't an option any more :) ). Were as in a private sector job without a pay scale, there is in theory no ceiling in earnings for that position.

It also sucks if you're really good at your job; you only go up the same rate as everyone else who does the bare minimum. (This was also the case in my previous private sector job which also had pay scales).

This probably contributed to the private/public pay trend reversing in 2007/8 when the 'bad times' started.

Not saying your point isn't valid by the way, however there are also downsides.

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Pay scales can cut both ways, i.e. once you've reached the end point of your scale, that's it. If you want more you have to apply for a higher grade position (which isn't an option any more :) ). Were as in a private sector job without a pay scale, there is in theory no ceiling in earnings for that position.

It also sucks if you're really good at your job; you only go up the same rate as everyone else who does the bare minimum. (This was also the case in my previous private sector job which also had pay scales).

This probably contributed to the private/public pay trend reversing in 2007/8 when the 'bad times' started.

Not saying your point isn't valid by the way, however there are also downsides.

Sept 1974. Me, civil service in Westminster.

First weeks pay...£20....that was about £5 in tax and NI, £5 to mum, £5 train fare...left me a £5 to spend ( beer was 20p a pint)

April 1976...last normal pay was now monthly.....but weekly it was £40 Gross....It had doubled in 18 months....then I joined the police where the pay shot up to £100 per week...payscales and rises looked after me just fine...If I wanted to become brain dead, I would have stayed and been retired a couple of years ago.

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Sept 1974. Me, civil service in Westminster.

First weeks pay...£20....that was about £5 in tax and NI, £5 to mum, £5 train fare...left me a £5 to spend ( beer was 20p a pint)

April 1976...last normal pay was now monthly.....but weekly it was £40 Gross....It had doubled in 18 months....then I joined the police where the pay shot up to £100 per week...payscales and rises looked after me just fine...If I wanted to become brain dead, I would have stayed and been retired a couple of years ago.

Yes, but you had to change roles/services to make the grade ups no?

.If I wanted to become brain dead, I would have stayed and been retired a couple of years ago.

Don't get me wrong, as soon as things improve and an equal or better opportunity arises in the private sector, I'll be back again.

Unless of course, all these cuts provides some kind of contracting opportunity.

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Yes, but you had to change roles/services to make the grade ups no?

Don't get me wrong, as soon as things improve and an equal or better opportunity arises in the private sector, I'll be back again.

Unless of course, all these cuts provides some kind of contracting opportunity.

of course, I went from Civil service to Local Authority...moving from one to the other was not a department change.

At that age of course, the moves were what we would call today lifestyle changes, rather than career moves...PCs seemed to always get nice women, whereas the place I was working was full of gays...not my scene.

And yes, I did get my very nice woman.

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