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Flood Gates Opening?

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This is from namawinelake, Ireland's answer to Calculated Risk (no UK franchise yet!):

Barry Gilbertson, the former president of the RICS and now a consultant to Knight Frank gave a very sobering presentation in London last Tuesday on the subject of banks dealing with distressed property loans (reported in PropertyWeek here, the speech is not online yet but should be available here). It was reminiscent of the Kubler-Ross stages of dealing with grief as he described the four Phases banks are going through in dealing with distressed property loans in the UK. According to Professor Gilbertson, Phase 1 was total shock. This was followed by Phase 2 in which “the banks micro-managed their advisers, pulling the plug on the odd hopeless case” In terms of the UK, Phase 3 started in 2010 when banks realised that, in many cases, their borrowers are the best people to help them maximize returns from a distressed loan. And Phase 4 should now be beginning with wide-scale disposal of property by banks. Sobering. Particularly if you’re working in NAMA and trying to maximise returns from the London market where you just might find that supply of property will swell with banks offloading property. And what was just as sobering was the reminder that even if NAMA forecloses on a loan and sits on the asset, the asset management costs are likely to be 5% per annum, and there may potentially be other costs. Very sobering indeed. The picture above is of one of the many Grehan brothers assets in theUK to which NAMA appointed administrators over the past fortnight.


I didn't dig into the links - anyone have a view?

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Regardless of what happens to commercial property prices in London now, the fact is that our deliberate sterling devaluation of as much as 40% punched a ruddy great hole in Ireland's banks' balance sheets. Don't forget this came on top of a fall in commercial property prices in the UK of about 50% I believe.

UK had a big hand in the Irish sovereign debt problem.

But they've got the lady whose head adorns The Coin! :o

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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