Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
DiggerUK

Ebay Silver Price, Is A Fools Barometer.

Recommended Posts

The argument, that silver sold on Ebay represents the real state of the world silver market, is something cooked up in Tyler Durden's head, after a heavy session with Keiser.

The Ebay market for silver, is a pimple on the backside of the world silver market as measured by the London, New York, Chicago, Shanghai etc., metals exchanges.

The LBMA daily average for silver transfers show that 1,148.6 million ounces were transferred in the last 12 months alone in London. As theses figures only represent what was transferred, as opposed to what was actually traded, it can be seen how insignificant are the Ebay silver trades.

As a barometer of silver traded on the world stage, Ebay doesn't exist in any meaningful way.

I imagine that there is more silver traded outside of Ebay in a minute, than on Ebay in a year.

So to claim that paying 40/80% over the base metal content of silver bars and coins, is a smart move has this old bugger mystified.

In my opinion it is madness, and if any of you have silver that is not less than an average of 30% below the spot/fix price, dump it now is my position.

Can somebody please explain the logic, of paying such inflated prices, for what in reality is an industrial metal?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The logic is that printing will never stop, therefore it doesnt matter if you overpay, the market will catch up with you at some point. While i agree to an extent, some point can mean a lot of different things. ATM people will still exchange their labour for a pitiful amount of that thing silverbugs probably regard as toilet paper, thus, at the present, it isnt toilet paper.

I know, i know, the top is only reached when schoolkids are pawning their playstations to get ahold of a gram of silver...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it is all about perspective and specifics

as i have shown (2.6% over spot) ebay can actually track spot quite closely

however, as many coin collectors will know, anything 'perth mint' normally sells at a high premium

since ebay involves a lot of physical silver transactions in the form of bullion coins, the premiums will be higher because of this 'form' of silver

anyone who remembers 2008, will recall hefty premiums on coins because of backlogs at refiners / blank production: whereas, 1000oz bars traded without premium

so as i say, it's all about perspective and specifics

edit - and VAT of course, carried as a cost into the premium; hence, my first example was a VAT free coin

Edited by p.p.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Problem I find with eBay is the people bidding seem to think the last high is still applicable and bid beyond it. Some would call this stupidity, especially when the thing being bid on can be bought for less from a reputable bullion dealer.

I don't see a lot of logic behind eBay prices myself and I cannot see the point in bidding something above dealer prices. I've never seen the logic in bidding PC components above retail either but that is rampant too. People in the UK do however like to pay over the odds, maybe it's an ego thing, the more you pay the more man you are?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Problem I find with eBay is the people bidding seem to think the last high is still applicable and bid beyond it. Some would call this stupidity, especially when the thing being bid on can be bought for less from a reputable bullion dealer.

I don't see a lot of logic behind eBay prices myself and I cannot see the point in bidding something above dealer prices. I've never seen the logic in bidding PC components above retail either but that is rampant too. People in the UK do however like to pay over the odds, maybe it's an ego thing, the more you pay the more man you are?

If you look at the price performance of paper gold relative to numismatic gold relative to miners over the last 50 years and these anomolies are pretty text book, they dont all top and bottom at the same time time

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The argument, that silver sold on Ebay represents the real state of the world silver market, is something cooked up in Tyler Durden's head, after a heavy session with Keiser.

Can somebody please explain the logic, of paying such inflated prices.

There is no logic. It does say something about the mind set of people who are buying and selling on there though. I have been there and done that. It is a small time dealing room and nothing else.It can be fun.It gives us the thrill of the auction rooms...its delusional though, if the reason to buy is for investment or to cover the potential losses from holding fiat or other investments.

Why do it....why buy for investment reasons on E Bay when CID et al, sell for less and at a fair market price at any particular given time. Why sell on E Bay when 15% of your sale price is gobbled up from you in fees.? I also think many people get confused, and the line is blurred between numismatic value and just the silver value alone. Often you see arguments being put forth about silver investment, but then being told its a coin with numismatic value. Which is it.? Because if the proverbial s**t hits the fan then numismatic value isnt going to be at the forfront of peoples thinking, when they want to sell or buy silver.

I do not agree that silver is just an industrial metal though. It is preciousssss my beauty..

I bet there are a few frayed nerves & sleepless nights at the moment with silver prices heading where they are.... :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

............when the thing being bid on can be bought for less from a reputable bullion dealer.

I don't see a lot of logic behind eBay prices myself and I cannot see the point in bidding something above dealer prices. ........

I think I should make it clear that despite having a pop at crazy ebay prices, I am still left totally bemused by the prices people pay to regular dealers.

CID have Phillies at 20% over fix, how the hell is that an attractive price to pay? I have not allowed for the cost of p&p either.

No other commodity market has such high markups, which tells me that the constant hype about the world running out of silver, and that the silver price is manipulated down is good propaganda.

So, if you class b()llshit as propaganda, then I guess it's proof that b()llshit works!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coininvest direct, for example charge £13.14 for delivery for 1 ounce of silver philharmonic, total price is £41.64. so paying over the odds on eBay may still work out cheaper.

Local people such as builders with cash like to be able to buy locally, without using banks, so they may be happy to pay over the odds.

Some people collect Britannias etc so are happy to pay extra for a design or year they don't yet have, or bars such as Johnson Matthay or Credit Suiss go for a premium as they are more desirable.

Some people don't know what the spot price is and bid according to completed listings prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

..........Some people don't know what the spot price is and bid according to completed listings prices.

Sometimes the simplest answer carries most weight. I think there is a great deal of truth in what you say.

Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In short the logic for feebay prices is that they are the same as any supply price for bullion.

CID and alike charge 20% vat so a Britt at £30 is sold for £36 even though spot may only be £25. Because the price is similar to most other places that Britts could be bought then the prices on feebay reflect that and Britts would sell for something around the £36 mark.

It is supply and demand, there is nowhere else to buy them cheaper so the price remains pretty much the same anywhere that silver is sold.

Is it sound to cough up 20% in vat on top of their spread and delivery costs? No, not in my opinion but that is why so many do buy from feebay - to try and save a few pounds.

Feebay is good for scrap and old circulated coinage - that goes for below spot and offers more sense.

Feebay prices may not reflect the spot market when it comes to bullion, not directly or quickly anyway, but it does reflect the real price that it will cost you to go and buy a silver coin or bar.

........and then there are the arguments about the disconnect between paper trading prices and physical etc which seem to hold water over here but only because of vat and greedy dealers - our chunky cousins over the pond buy silver pretty close to spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coininvest direct, for example charge £13.14 for delivery for 1 ounce of silver philharmonic, total price is £41.64. so paying over the odds on eBay may still work out cheaper.

Local people such as builders with cash like to be able to buy locally, without using banks, so they may be happy to pay over the odds.

Some people collect Britannias etc so are happy to pay extra for a design or year they don't yet have, or bars such as Johnson Matthay or Credit Suiss go for a premium as they are more desirable.

Some people don't know what the spot price is and bid according to completed listings prices.

I also think that there is a lot of cash that gets cleaned through ebay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DiggerUK - I originally raised this issue and then clarified it in a second thread by referencing a website called 24h Gold, that helpfully, amongst many other things related to gold, silver and commodities, relays the latest average ebay bids for the various types of gold and silver bullion bars and coins that are sold via ebay. Here is the link for those that have not seen:

Silver prices on Ebay.com

Gold prices on Ebay.com

As you can see, some of the valuations for silver are way over spot. I can understand a Lunar Series 2Oz trading over 168.5% over spot, as they probably don't make too many in that size, so there may be some perceived collectors premium on this coin. However, it is amazing to see bog standard 100g bullion bars trading at a whopping 223.7% over spot. Looks like Zerohedge and Keiser have really got to those yankees.

Over at the gold section as we actually have a couple of negative to spot prices for 10Oz gold bars, trading at -19.4% to spot and 100gram gold bars trading at -9.3%. Surely an opportunity for a carry trade from ebay to your local dealer! Of course, I do not know how accurate the ebay data collection is, as many gold bars are advertised as gold bars in the title, only to be shown as gold clad in the picture and description, which may well be a explanation for this glaringly obvious money making opportunity that the entire ebay community is passing up. Other than that we have gold trading at much lower premiums than silver.

Anecdotally, with regard to official pricing for physical, I phoned up Baird & Co (biggest dealer to the public in the UK) on Friday. At Friday's prices they were bang out of kilo bars (a popular investment size bar) for the next 4 weeks. They did have loads of Britannia's in stock though. When I asked how many loads was they said 80 coins, which at price they are charging was about 2k's worth of coins, so providing their customer base hasn't collectively phoned up and ordered a tiny two thousand pounds worth of coins in the last few days, they have 'loads' of stock!!!

They did have loads of Baird & Co. silver rounds though, which are their own bullion coins minted from scrap that they buy, although I didn't ask what loads was, but with reference to the Britannia's it must be at least approximately 80!

So, there we go, if the UK's biggest dealer to the public is chock a block with loads of silver to serve investment demand for the entire country, then those ebay bidders must just be paranoid nutcases.

Edited by General Congreve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is no logic. It does say something about the mind set of people who are buying and selling on there though. I have been there and done that. It is a small time dealing room and nothing else.It can be fun.It gives us the thrill of the auction rooms...its delusional though, if the reason to buy is for investment or to cover the potential losses from holding fiat or other investments.

Thats why ebay is an auction house, auctions make people overbid. I seen PC's go way over retail at auctions.

You don't buy Silver or Gold as a hedge against paper money falling in value, there is already a 90% fall built into the shiny metals prices.

Its all about speculating on further rises .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thats why ebay is an auction house, auctions make people overbid. I seen PC's go way over retail at auctions.

You don't buy Silver or Gold as a hedge against paper money falling in value, there is already a 90% fall built into the shiny metals prices.

Its all about speculating on further rises .

Further rises? In fiat terms you mean? Wouldnt that otherwise be known as a hedge against paper?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thats why ebay is an auction house, auctions make people overbid. I seen PC's go way over retail at auctions.

You don't buy Silver or Gold as a hedge against paper money falling in value, there is already a 90% fall built into the shiny metals prices.

Its all about speculating on further rises .

Simply not true. The price increase in gold since 2000 almost exactly tracks the expansion in the US monetary base. And it's starting point in 2000 was below what it cost to dig it out of the ground.

Also, the long term average of global wealth held in gold throughout the 20th century was 25%, until it dropped off a cliff towards the 90's. These days, with loads of extra gold derivatives which help dilute the real price, only 1.8% of the world's wealth in held in gold. The rest is in bonds, stocks, property and cash etc.

Now, imagine even 1.8% more of the world's wealth trickling back into gold, say from people selling out of bonds that continue to pay negative real rates. That's more or less a 100% price increase right there.

This precious metas boom has hardly got started.

Edited by General Congreve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spp

What a stupid, stupid thread!

Pretty much everything you buy on this planet has a markup cost (excluding 20% VAT).

This guy is nothing but a loud mouth schill.

He forgot to buy silver a few years ago and only now he's waking up to real 'fools barometer'...the illusionary value of paper/digital 'money'.

edit: nothing to see here -

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/16_Hugo_Salinas_Price_-_QE_in_US_Will_Lead_to_Utter_Destruction.html

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/business-5127-RBZ+urges+gold-backed+Zim+dollar/business.aspx

Edited by spp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It may not be perfect but it is still a worthwhile indicator of the current physical market for a small investor.

If people think ebay is expensive it is their choice to go and find cheaper bullion elsewhere on the net.

People go on about the fees which I suppose could be a little less costly,but can anybody sell anything in this country without some other entity getting their cut.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a stupid, stupid thread!

Pretty much everything you buy on this planet has a markup cost.......This guy is nothing but a loud mouth schill.

He forgot to buy silver a few years ago and only now he's waking up to real 'fools barometer'...the illusionary value of paper/digital 'money'....

The reason Digger Mansions chose gold over silver a few years back, was because of the bulk and vat.

We wanted to put retirement cash in the safest place we knew. As you can imagine we are well chuffed.

My more recent comments on silver have come about after some involvement in the deleted silver thread on MSE; and the head bangers were an eye opener.

I have never supported conspiracy, manipulation and world silver shortage theories. Neither do I regard silver as a store of value and wealth because of the near 60% usage in manufacture. It is too easily affected by downturns in the economy, as we saw in 2007/8, and again witnessed in the last couple of weeks.

On both occasions gold bounced back in short order. We will have to wait to see what happens to silver this time. Maybe it's all gone Bunker Hunt again!

And yes, everything traded on the planet has a mark up.

What this stupid thread is trying to ascertain, is why the silver heads have traditionally paid such high premiums, and are still arguing we should do.

But what do I know, I've gone completely bonkers buying gold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

../..

. Neither do I regard silver as a store of value and wealth because of the near 60% usage in manufacture. It is too easily affected by downturns in the economy, as we saw in 2007/8, and again witnessed in the last couple of weeks.

../..

hmm, sorry that was not the reason silver sold off over the last couple of weeks; silver sold off because it was very overbought and was rising far too quickly

edit - the chart below of gold vs silver basically verifies this. Now, that is not to say that downturns in the economy do no affect silver, they do of course, but if you are looking at the last 3 weeks, the major reason silver corrected was because of it's spiking (overbought) nature, the 'downturn in the economy' is ongoing and will affect silver from time to time such as commodity sell-off waves combined with dollar rallies, but this ebb and flow is ongoing and as yet we have not seen a correction to rival Q32008

goldvssilver.gif

Edited by p.p.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hmm, sorry that was not the reason silver sold off over the last couple of weeks; silver sold off because it was very overbought and was rising far too quickly

That is only half an explanation of what happened.

The world economic activity, stuffed with debased money, doesn't pull off the trick of "ending boom and bust" quite so easily these days.

All commodities were hit because of a dip in growth in both developed and developing world. The speculation in commodities shows once again that the risk involved in trying to grow your wealth is very high.

And don't forget, it is quite normal for margin calls to increase as prices rise. Believe it or not, but it is one way that the markets keep some kind of equilibrium and self regulate.

It gives good supporting evidence to my argument that only gold is a store of wealth, and silver is best treated as an industrial metal, when you look at were the two metals prices are at now.

Anyway, I am still trying to unravel the mysteries of a silver heads, head, and find out why such high premiums are attractive to you all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is only half an explanation of what happened.

The world economic activity, stuffed with debased money, doesn't pull off the trick of "ending boom and bust" quite so easily these days.

All commodities were hit because of a dip in growth in both developed and developing world. The speculation in commodities shows once again that the risk involved in trying to grow your wealth is very high.

And don't forget, it is quite normal for margin calls to increase as prices rise. Believe it or not, but it is one way that the markets keep some kind of equilibrium and self regulate.

It gives good supporting evidence to my argument that only gold is a store of wealth, and silver is best treated as an industrial metal, when you look at were the two metals prices are at now.

Anyway, I am still trying to unravel the mysteries of a silver heads, head, and find out why such high premiums are attractive to you all.

perhaps being less patronising and genaralising would be a start

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reason Digger Mansions chose gold over silver a few years back, was because of the bulk and vat.

We wanted to put retirement cash in the safest place we knew. As you can imagine we are well chuffed.

My more recent comments on silver have come about after some involvement in the deleted silver thread on MSE; and the head bangers were an eye opener.

I have never supported conspiracy, manipulation and world silver shortage theories. Neither do I regard silver as a store of value and wealth because of the near 60% usage in manufacture. It is too easily affected by downturns in the economy, as we saw in 2007/8, and again witnessed in the last couple of weeks.

On both occasions gold bounced back in short order. We will have to wait to see what happens to silver this time. Maybe it's all gone Bunker Hunt again!

And yes, everything traded on the planet has a mark up.

What this stupid thread is trying to ascertain, is why the silver heads have traditionally paid such high premiums, and are still arguing we should do.

But what do I know, I've gone completely bonkers buying gold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

../...

And don't forget, it is quite normal for margin calls to increase as prices rise. Believe it or not, but it is one way that the markets keep some kind of equilibrium and self regulate.

.../..

as i posted the other day

.../..

It gives good supporting evidence to my argument that only gold is a store of wealth, and silver is best treated as an industrial metal, when you look at were the two metals prices are at now.

.../..

short-term, intermediate-term and long-term

three seperate ways at looking at the relationship between gold and silver

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.