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The Masked Tulip

Chartered Surveyor?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Anyone know what happened to that Chartered Surveyor, I forget his/her nick, who used to post on here? We used to get alot of good info on what was happening in that field re HPs.

He is just a surveyor if you mean the one we call our resident surveyor.

Went on holiday

Signing off for a holiday, cheers.
last posted on the 19th August.

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He is just a surveyor if you mean the one we call our resident surveyor.

Went on holiday last posted on the 19th August.

And Father Ted I miss his input as well, and Slater17

Edited by Catch22

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He is just a surveyor if you mean the one we call our resident surveyor.

Went on holiday last posted on the 19th August.

Just sent him a mail to see how he is. You never know he may be back from holiday.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Just sent him a mail to see how he is. You never know he may be back from holiday.

Now here`s the member who could be of help to appollo 1966 on the subject of whether prices are going up or down and the increase in repossession over the debt issue. <_<

Most certainly eek!

The market in summer is of course always pretty quiet, and agents start dreaming of September, lengthening shadows across rolling fields, the early morning dew on spider's webs, and a return to school for the market to pick up again. This summer has been quieter than usual, no doubt, but not completely dead. However agents do confirm that the oft mooted figure of about 30% of sales not reaching completion is about right. This is a bit of a culture shock to some.

There are the odd cases where agents suggest that it's not been at all bad, but that needs to be seen in the context of a 'difficult market'. That would be the phrase most used.

My feeling is that the sales that have gone through have often been for reasons of work and stepping up the ladder due to growing families. The FTBs are as rare as rocking horse sh1t, and I can't remember the last one I did at this level. A few BTLs are still going through, but we can rarely value the rent to the 'required' rental figure which causes problems. Also almost all BTLs are of secondary and tertiary properties. No quality ones anymore.

And as I've posted many times before, the whole business is fuelled by lax/incompetent lending and unscrupulous mortgage brokers. It is riddled with fraud, and guess what, there's no mechanism for reporting it! In fact, exactly as it was in 1987/8. Strange that.

A lot of remortgaging (or as is now the norm on HPC 'alot'!) going on, presumably people coming out of deals. Most of these are problematical as we can rarely get to the valuation figure required and the applicants then fish around for another source. Which means we end up doing lots of transcriptions for the same property. In turn I expect they go lower down the chain of lenders, meaning more expensive deals.

Sept/Oct will be worth looking at for any significant upturn in transactions. You can pretty well write this year off for the bulls. My expectation is still for a fall in values by about a bedroom, more if the recession is a biggie. Rates haven't counted for so long now, I think they're almost out of the equation. See Charlie about this! Repos and bankruptcies going up and affecting mostly higher value properties too. Signing off for a holiday, cheers.

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Anyone know what happened to that Chartered Surveyor, I forget his/her nick, who used to post on here? We used to get alot of good info on what was happening in that field re HPs.

Hello there! I still pop in to check the news and find some of the links to be very interesting. Unfortunately the standard of threads (Met Office predicts coldest winter etc) seem to be straw clutching in the extreme. However I think the question Charlie asked re. prices is probably of interest. Of course prices aren't still rising across the board. In the SE where I work, I get to speak to dozens of estate agents each week (well somebody's got to do it). It's been clear for this year that the market has stalled, record numbers of agreed sales are not completing, marketing times have grown (a year is now not uncommon), and asking prices have been coming down. As a general comment, I'd say about 10%. Volumes have gone through the floor, but the market is not entirely dead. I find that where I'm doing proper surveys and speak to the sellers and buyers, there's a good reason for moving, often older people downsizing, families moving through necessity of growing family, work reasons etc. Most seem to have significant equity, so a crash wouldn't affect them much.

Some lenders are in denial. I was recently asked why I ticked the 'prices falling' box. This was not the first such enquiry, and I was so bored with the question that I sent them 15 pages of reports from BBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, FT etc quoting everyone from Rightmove to the RICS. And guess what? They all said the 'F' word; Prices falling. So to any bull who's still in denial, either all these sources must be mistaken, or possibly you are.

A colleague came back from valuing a semi with annexe flat in Orpington today. On market a year ago at £425,000. Several agents and 12 months later now under offer at £300,000 for a quick sale. Hardly evidence of a rising market.

I'm getting more instructions for valuing repos than at any time in the past 5 years. Also drive by valuations for bankruptcy cases, often of larger £500,000 plus houses. I've just turned down an instruction to act as an expert witness for some mug trying to sue a valuer for over valuing his flat. He's in deep do-do now and looking for someone else to blame (watch out for lots more of this). I read between the lines and realised this was a mortgage fraud (on the plaintiff's part) and thought 'Tough'. I think the market has been propped up by fraud at all levels, not just self cert.

For anyone relying on ODPM's stats, these are unreliable. As George Buckley of Deutsche Bank says: 'The ODPM measure is playing catch up.'

Two questions from myself;

1) Why do bulls insist that house prices are still steady or even going up?

2) Can anyone explain to a simple soul why high house prices are a good thing?

3) Why DO people write 'alot' ?

I've always been with Charlie on this; it's all about debt.

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Hello there! I still pop in to check the news and find some of the links to be very interesting. Unfortunately the standard of threads (Met Office predicts coldest winter etc) seem to be straw clutching in the extreme. However I think the question Charlie asked re. prices is probably of interest. Of course prices aren't still rising across the board. In the SE where I work, I get to speak to dozens of estate agents each week (well somebody's got to do it). It's been clear for this year that the market has stalled, record numbers of agreed sales are not completing, marketing times have grown (a year is now not uncommon), and asking prices have been coming down. As a general comment, I'd say about 10%. Volumes have gone through the floor, but the market is not entirely dead. I find that where I'm doing proper surveys and speak to the sellers and buyers, there's a good reason for moving, often older people downsizing, families moving through necessity of growing family, work reasons etc. Most seem to have significant equity, so a crash wouldn't affect them much.

Some lenders are in denial. I was recently asked why I ticked the 'prices falling' box. This was not the first such enquiry, and I was so bored with the question that I sent them 15 pages of reports from BBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, FT etc quoting everyone from Rightmove to the RICS. And guess what? They all said the 'F' word; Prices falling. So to any bull who's still in denial, either all these sources must be mistaken, or possibly you are.

A colleague came back from valuing a semi with annexe flat in Orpington today. On market a year ago at £425,000. Several agents and 12 months later now under offer at £300,000 for a quick sale. Hardly evidence of a rising market.

I'm getting more instructions for valuing repos than at any time in the past 5 years. Also drive by valuations for bankruptcy cases, often of larger £500,000 plus houses. I've just turned down an instruction to act as an expert witness for some mug trying to sue a valuer for over valuing his flat. He's in deep do-do now and looking for someone else to blame (watch out for lots more of this). I read between the lines and realised this was a mortgage fraud (on the plaintiff's part) and thought 'Tough'. I think the market has been propped up by fraud at all levels, not just self cert.

For anyone relying on ODPM's stats, these are unreliable. As George Buckley of Deutsche Bank says: 'The ODPM measure is playing catch up.'

Two questions from myself;

1) Why do bulls insist that house prices are still steady or even going up?

2) Can anyone explain to a simple soul why high house prices are a good thing?

3) Why DO people write 'alot' ?

I've always been with Charlie on this; it's all about debt.

Surveyor's posts are, for me, the most valuable of all.

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Unfortunately the standard of threads (Met Office predicts coldest winter etc) seem to be straw clutching in the extreme.

Thanks for the very interesting post.

I'll just defend the Met Office predicts coldest winter threaders, since unfortunately this is a serious issue. North Sea natural gas has been in decline (I think since 1999), and it has now declined to just about winter consumption. The last two winters have been relatively mild, and so they have seen us escape natural gas shortages. This year we may not be so lucky. Domestic gas users should be all right, but if there are shortages, industrial customers will be hit. Electricity generators are industrial customers.

It is slightly tangential to an HPC, though the accompanying rise in fossil fuel prices might not be. I should think that it might generally make people more pessimistic, and for any industrial shutdowns, there will be wage losses (problematic with high debt) and industrial output falls (not good if there is a recession round the corner).

Longer term, it may have more relevance to an HPC, because it indicates the way in which the energy market is going. Peak oil is very theoretical, a powercut isn't. Most importantly, it raises the spectre of why this time things might be different, not on the going down bit of the cycle, but on whether it ever comes back up.

Peter (and sorry for writing another long post).

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surveyor,

Thank you for your informative post. Honest input from the 'sharp end' makes a refeshing change from lots of stats and spin.

Look forward to your next post.

Thanks FTBagain

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Excellent post. Surveyors are often pushed by all sides to overvalue properties, especially for MEW. As the only innocents in the affair, apart from the crime of buckling under pressure, it would turn my stomach to think of them being sued as scapegoats.

Yes as ever a 1st class market report from the sharp end. What's more it is evident Surveyor's credibility is more important to him than any desire to pander to the piper. Even to the point of criticising the loss of focus on the Main Forum, and for these reasons I find his posts very illuminating and trustworthy.

Thanks

Edited by Catch22

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Well apollo you now have the evidence from the SE on which way HPs are going from our man on the ground. <_<

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Well apollo you now have the evidence from the SE on which way HPs are going from our man on the ground. <_<

appollo casts his eyes to the heavens in a display of derision on hearing Charlie The Tramp's taunt .............quickly turning back to his hand held mirror and thinking to himself .....GOD I'M GORGEOUS :rolleyes:

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A bit anecdotal but supports The Surveyor's views on completion times.

My father is selling his terrace in E Midlands - he put it on the market last November and only got a buyer who can complete in the last 8 weeks. Hoping the deal goes through in the next 4 weeks so that's about 11 months from start to finish. Also sale price is going to be 14% less than initial asking.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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