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tinbin

Golden Beach ... Or Gold Coast (North Down)

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Look at the past "property of the month" listings at the bottom of that advert. Of the last nine, only one has sold - the others are all available. Blimey.

Fantastic bargain for £100k, though, Just look at it !

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Look at the past "property of the month" listings at the bottom of that advert. Of the last nine, only one has sold - the others are all available. Blimey.

Fantastic bargain for £100k, though, Just look at it !

I bet you only think that's a bargain because you have no memory of how reasonable house prices once were in NI. We could have bought the house were renting now for just over 2.5 my partners salary in 1990. Now someone on the same pay scale (with index linked increments) would need at least 5x salary to buy, even if it were bought at 2005 prices.

Condos in the Caribbean were cheaper than 2 bed apartments on the Belmont Road 3 years ago!

Look through the other end of the telescope.

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I bet you only think that's a bargain because you have no memory of how reasonable house prices once were in NI. We could have bought the house were renting now for just over 2.5 my partners salary in 1990. Now someone on the same pay scale (with index linked increments) would need at least 5x salary to buy, even if it were bought at 2005 prices.

Condos in the Caribbean were cheaper than 2 bed apartments on the Belmont Road 3 years ago!

Look through the other end of the telescope.

yep prices really are still way way out of wack with local salary levels. Particularly with regards to new build semis and apartments.

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I really think there would be a lot less sales to FTB's if the Bank of Mum and Dad and Granny didn't put up the deposit.

Couldn't agree more. It's just about keeping the market moving but I can't see it going on forever. I hear it all the time in work when I ask how they afford it. " oh my mum and dad helped me out. "

Interestingly I also know one colleague who's father was kind enough to sell him his BTL semi in Belfast. It was on the market for a year and didn't sell. (No offers at the price its worth!!!) So they have taken it off the dad at a "fair" price. They even let slip they didn't have a deposit so got a vendor gifted one on a residential mortgage!!!

Asked me when I thought houses would be back to peak. I said around 25 years if ever. Looked at me as if I was mad and said daddy knows about property and said around 2-3.

This is a secretary in work making 17k max who father has saddle him with an over priced semi to fund his retirement/pay the equity release used to buy it.

Honestly its amazing some people remember to inhale.

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I really think there would be a lot less sales to FTB's if the Bank of Mum and Dad and Granny didn't put up the deposit.

Without doubt the vast majority of FTBers that enter the market are being gifted money and/or parents are going on the borrowing with them. The few that dont need this assistance are the higher earners such as doctors etc, and even at that there can still be a requirement for the parents to be involved.

This is not normal housing market business ... those who kid themselves that it is are foolish

Edited by tinbin

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Couldn't agree more. It's just about keeping the market moving but I can't see it going on forever. I hear it all the time in work when I ask how they afford it. " oh my mum and dad helped me out. "

we have been saying that now for the last couple of years though!, the crash hasnt really been much of a crash after the initial phase of price capitulation in mid 07 til 09. since then they have floated about the same for a good while with the occasional small decrease/increase as the months go on. i dont know if we will ever see good family houses ever returning to sensible ratios in comparison to salaries. maybe that is one thing that will come out of the whole thing, that owning a property becomes less of the done thing to do, like it is in places like germany, and the majority of people will eventually have a change in mindset to just rent instead.

when you still see average 3 bed semis and 'towhnhouses' crammed into small areas coming onto the market at 150-160k you have to wonder about the crash at all. im just getting majorly fed up waiting for it all to happen, while you see savings being eroded with inflation etc too it only makes it worse

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We know the asking prices of these houses but none of us know what they sell at. There is no transparency in the housing market here. Even the ROI is talking belatedly of a housing register. We can only go by rumour and EA forked tongue speak (with respect to Realistic EA).

The BBC Newsline are looking for ideas for investigative stories -- it's up to us to write and suggest the legislation should be brought forward to bring us into line with the rest of the UK.

We don't have the legislation to have sold prices put on the land registry documents. We don't have a free online land registry like the rest of the UK. Perhaps someone from the BBC reads this forum and can take this investigation up.

First time buyers and indeed all buyers have the right to have as much information about the properties for sale as other UK residents.

Would you buy a car or a TV without comparing prices across the market???

Why is there no political will to provide transparency in the housing market??

I don't think there would be any resistance from the Housing Development bodies to this. We assume that the Government and CML reports are accurate but have no issue with Land Registry releasing theirs.

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we have been saying that now for the last couple of years though!, the crash hasnt really been much of a crash after the initial phase of price capitulation in mid 07 til 09. since then they have floated about the same for a good while with the occasional small decrease/increase as the months go on. i dont know if we will ever see good family houses ever returning to sensible ratios in comparison to salaries. maybe that is one thing that will come out of the whole thing, that owning a property becomes less of the done thing to do, like it is in places like germany, and the majority of people will eventually have a change in mindset to just rent instead.

when you still see average 3 bed semis and 'towhnhouses' crammed into small areas coming onto the market at 150-160k you have to wonder about the crash at all. im just getting majorly fed up waiting for it all to happen, while you see savings being eroded with inflation etc too it only makes it worse

In most 'good areas' you can get a new semi for £140 to £160 and town-houses for £120 to £140. Roughly half the price they were. You are right most to the price drops happened 2 years ago however, you still have the slow adjustment of the 40 year old house coming down to that level and below. Density has been dramatically rolled back as developers, including myself see that we have to move back to the types of houses we were building 6 or 7 years ago. 1,000 sq foot, 3 bed semi's with a good garden. The concept of open space, where the developer sets aside 10% to 15% or a development's land for open space is not a success. I think most buyers would rather have a 15% larger private back garden and do away with the management fees. However we are stuck with it and I don't see it being removed. The town houses are back to 2 story. Basically the same layout as a semi.

I do see the % or house ownership coming down in this country. It will no longer be the advice forked out to every couple. Too many people got that advice during the boom and I believe the current generation of parents to late teen and early twenties will be a little more shy about offering that sort of advice. People will rent longer. Of that I am sure. However, there is pressure on obtaining a good rental house and if the trend to rent continues that can only increase. Its not that less people buy in Germany they tend to do it later in life therefore there are less private houses in the stock. They also have some other method of price control which stops speculator activity (cant remember the exact system). However their banks obviously missed this excitement in their lives and gambled on the Irish housing market as well. Nearly lost everything but the good Irish taxpayer decided it would be good sport to give them back all the money they gambled away. Sort of debt forgiveness. Borrowed 60bn from the IMF to pay them too.Good sports the Irish.

To buy a property now, it looks like you need two incomes in a household as it is the multiple of household income that counts. That raised the platform and give the houses the appearance of accelerating faster than income. once that started speculating moved in and the rest is history. That's my theory, perhaps not universally accepted. One thing that comes out of that theory is it can never happen again as we are unlikely to become a nation of threesomes. I believe some try. Therefore household income can never go up again in relation to actual average Salary the way it did over the last 30 or so years. The double income generation arrived some time ago. It cant be improved upon. Whilst only 93% of the working population is working now after falling from something like 96% or 97% (if you believe Gov figures)this has no comparison to the growth in duel income couples over the last 30 years. But my point is that has happened it cant be improved upon again so the notion of price escalation in the future seems remote. I believe we will enter a euro model (excluding the PIGS) where there will be more stability and a older purchaser. The rental market will again strive, but on an investment model rather than a price speculation model.

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In most 'good areas' you can get a new semi for £140 to £160 and town-houses for £120 to £140. Roughly half the price they were. You are right most to the price drops happened 2 years ago however, you still have the slow adjustment of the 40 year old house coming down to that level and below. Density has been dramatically rolled back as developers, including myself see that we have to move back to the types of houses we were building 6 or 7 years ago. 1,000 sq foot, 3 bed semi's with a good garden. The concept of open space, where the developer sets aside 10% to 15% or a development's land for open space is not a success. I think most buyers would rather have a 15% larger private back garden and do away with the management fees. However we are stuck with it and I don't see it being removed. The town houses are back to 2 story. Basically the same layout as a semi.

I do see the % or house ownership coming down in this country. It will no longer be the advice forked out to every couple. Too many people got that advice during the boom and I believe the current generation of parents to late teen and early twenties will be a little more shy about offering that sort of advice. People will rent longer. Of that I am sure. However, there is pressure on obtaining a good rental house and if the trend to rent continues that can only increase. Its not that less people buy in Germany they tend to do it later in life therefore there are less private houses in the stock. They also have some other method of price control which stops speculator activity (cant remember the exact system). However their banks obviously missed this excitement in their lives and gambled on the Irish housing market as well. Nearly lost everything but the good Irish taxpayer decided it would be good sport to give them back all the money they gambled away. Sort of debt forgiveness. Borrowed 60bn from the IMF to pay them too.Good sports the Irish.

To buy a property now, it looks like you need two incomes in a household as it is the multiple of household income that counts. That raised the platform and give the houses the appearance of accelerating faster than income. once that started speculating moved in and the rest is history. That's my theory, perhaps not universally accepted. One thing that comes out of that theory is it can never happen again as we are unlikely to become a nation of threesomes. I believe some try. Therefore household income can never go up again in relation to actual average Salary the way it did over the last 30 or so years. The double income generation arrived some time ago. It cant be improved upon. Whilst only 93% of the working population is working now after falling from something like 96% or 97% (if you believe Gov figures)this has no comparison to the growth in duel income couples over the last 30 years. But my point is that has happened it cant be improved upon again so the notion of price escalation in the future seems remote. I believe we will enter a euro model (excluding the PIGS) where there will be more stability and a older purchaser. The rental market will again strive, but on an investment model rather than a price speculation model.

Good post. You have touched on an important point regarding affordability V's Income ratios. Most home buyers require a joint income to afford a house. This will be the case even at todays prices, which appear low when compared to the peak but still appear high compared to 8,9 or 10+ years ago. House prices have been steadily increasing for the past 10 years at a rate much higher than normal wage inflation has done during the same period. Something was wrong for this to happen in the first place.

This is new territory for us all here in Northern Ireland. Personally i'm not so sure that there will be a culture change in terms of ppl not wanting to buy and preferring to rent for the longer term. I suppose you could argue that this is clearly what is happening now but IMO this is related more to house prices with FTBers being unable to obtain MTG's and others adopting a 'wait and see' attitude towards the market.

I think home ownership is still part of our culture and the desire to own a house still exists. This 'fear' of not being able to own a house was a contributing factor to those who jumped knee deep into the market during the panic buying 'boom'. Many camped outside EA's for days to purchase a new build. This same demand does not exist for rent.

When you consider factors such as job security & the actual income levels of the younger generation, such as young married couples for example these would be lower than the average salary levels that are quoted on this forum. I think it is a very dangerous & challenging lifestyle that has been created for them and all in a very short space of time and one that no-one should be proud of. They may well be able to purchase an average house on their combined income ... but how are they going to survive in the future if they ever have children and if one has to leave work, or they have to fund child-care? I don't see how they could ... and to be fair I am speaking from first hand experience of how this situation can impact on a household and its finances. The average family has 2 children ... thats about £800 per month on childcare costs alone never mind any other increased outgoings.

When you consider renting as an option for the above, I don't think it would be a lifestyle choice for most but perhaps better than the long term commitment of a MTG. Having said that the affordability issues remain the same. Average rent is approx £550 per month, again prob affordable for most on a joint income, but if that joint income becomes one income then the situation changes and financially they would be in the same difficulties that they would face if they had a MTG. Its doesn't bode well for the future does it?

The economic mess that we are in may well iron itself out in the end and hopefully house prices settle down to within most ppl's affordability and become a side issue for other more important matters.

Edited by tinbin

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Good post. You have touched on an important point regarding affordability V's Income ratios. Most home buyers require a joint income to afford a house. This will be the case even at todays prices, which appear low when compared to the peak but still appear high compared to 8,9 or 10+ years ago. House prices have been steadily increasing for the past 10 years at a rate much higher than normal wage inflation has done during the same period. Something was wrong for this to happen in the first place.

This is new territory for us all here in Northern Ireland. Personally i'm not so sure that there will be a culture change in terms of ppl not wanting to buy and preferring to rent for the longer term. I suppose you could argue that this is clearly what is happening now but IMO this is related more to house prices with FTBers being unable to obtain MTG's and others adopting a 'wait and see' attitude towards the market.

I think home ownership is still part of our culture and the desire to own a house still exists. This 'fear' of not being able to own a house was a contributing factor to those who jumped knee deep into the market during the panic buying 'boom'. Many camped outside EA's for days to purchase a new build. This same demand does not exist for rent.

When you consider factors such as job security & the actual income levels of the younger generation, such as young married couples for example these would be lower than the average salary levels that are quoted on this forum. I think it is a very dangerous & challenging lifestyle that has been created for them and all in a very short space of time and one that no-one should be proud of. They may well be able to purchase an average house on their combined income ... but how are they going to survive in the future if they ever have children and if one has to leave work, or they have to fund child-care? I don't see how they could ... and to be fair I am speaking from first hand experience of how this situation can impact on a household and its finances. The average family has 2 children ... thats about £800 per month on childcare costs alone never mind any other increased outgoings.

When you consider renting as an option for the above, I don't think it would be a lifestyle choice for most but perhaps better than the long term commitment of a MTG. Having said that the affordability issues remain the same. Average rent is approx £550 per month, again prob affordable for most on a joint income, but if that joint income becomes one income then the situation changes and financially they would be in the same difficulties that they would face if they had a MTG. Its doesn't bode well for the future does it?

The economic mess that we are in may well iron itself out in the end and hopefully house prices settle down to within most ppl's affordability and become a side issue for other more important matters.

House prices haven't been rising for the last 10 years. They have fallen for the last four. Whilst it goes against my VI business I do believe there is/will be a culture shift in the actuate to home-ownership in NI. I also think it will be lasting.

£550 is the average rent these days. Whilst I dont think that has risen it appears to get you less house or a house in a less attractive area. Whilst there is and will be extra demand for these houses there appears to still be a good supply for the time being. The gap between the cost or rent and ownership is pretty close at the moment and therefore the stresses on the family budget are similar. Its down to choice now, and I expect people to put off purchase until they are older.

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House prices haven't been rising for the last 10 years. They have fallen for the last four.

Ok badly worded on my part, but I am sure you know what I mean't. House prices have accelerated away from earnings at a faster pace over the lst 10-15yrs than they have at any other time. Even with the drops over the past few years this still has not corrected.

Whilst it goes against my VI business I do believe there is/will be a culture shift in the actuate to home-ownership in NI. I also think it will be lasting.

£550 is the average rent these days. Whilst I dont think that has risen it appears to get you less house or a house in a less attractive area. Whilst there is and will be extra demand for these houses there appears to still be a good supply for the time being. The gap between the cost or rent and ownership is pretty close at the moment and therefore the stresses on the family budget are similar. Its down to choice now, and I expect people to put off purchase until they are older.

Rent has came down from what was being charged during the peak years (2006/2007) when ppl were getting charged huge sums for rent, having said that I am sure that if it was compared as a '% of salary' now and what is was as a '% of salary' a decade ago ... I would be amazed if it hadn't gone up as a % of income. Rent was not £550 for a 3 bed semi 10yrs ago, I would imagine it was prob half that. Wages have not doubled in that time.

I have no stats re the above, only what I can remember. If someone could provide them it would be interesting to see it as a comparison.

Edited by tinbin

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Ok badly worded on my part, but I am sure you know what I mean't. House prices have accelerated away from earnings at a faster pace over the lst 10-15yrs than they have at any other time. Even with the drops over the past few years this still has not corrected.

Rent has came down from what was being charged during the peak years (2006/2007) when ppl were getting charged huge sums for rent, having said that I am sure that if it was compared as a '% of salary' now and what is was as a '% of salary' a decade ago ... I would be amazed if it hadn't gone up as a % of income. Rent was not £550 for a 3 bed semi 10yrs ago, I would imagine it was prob half that. Wages have not doubled in that time.

I have no stats re the above, only what I can remember. If someone could provide them it would be interesting to see it as a comparison.

I assumed that's what you meant about price rises. Sorry about the correction.

Rents are not my thing and I am not sure how much they have risen. Again we need to make sure we are comparing like against like. When asking a few EA's they say its not rents that go up its just the areas widen that fall into that bracket. The way it was explained to me. If one area attracts a rent of say £750 pm and the surrounding area £600 pm. The £750 has stead roughly the same but now the surrounding areas are almost as bad as people cant get a house in a street they want and the surrounding areas benefit. People, it seems will move to the surrounding area rather than pay more to get the house they want.

I cant answer if rents have went up as a % or income. I just don't know. I imagine the ending of the troubles played a part as renting began to spread across the river up into the streets off sunnyside street and into the Ormau road.This didn't really happen during the troubles (giving my age away).

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In most 'good areas' you can get a new semi for £140 to £160 and town-houses for £120 to £140. Roughly half the price they were. You are right most to the price drops happened 2 years ago however, you still have the slow adjustment of the 40 year old house coming down to that level and below.

in my opinion what they were at the peak is irrelevant to current FTBers. Its doesnt matter cos in the last few months before the peak there would have been very little ftbers purchasing at that stage abyway due to the ridiculous prices.

I still think that 160k for a new semi in a decent area is too much in comparison to what people are earning at the minute. do you not think it is too high for the majority of say couples in mid 20s-mid 30s? Add in maybe a child or two there as well and there is just no sustainability in those prices for the market to function at any sort of significant level.

So what will happen? Either wages increase (not going to happen). Or prices drop, for both existing houses and new builds. Or the current situation that exists where transactions levels are barely above flatlining? In the latter scenario the construction sector erodes further, more people default on current mortgages, EAs go aout of business en masse.

BelfastVI, i respect alot of your opinions on here, and i think you usually always put across your points well reasoned, but i would ask you, do you think that if new build semi prices stay at about 150k do you see the market as a whole being able to function more helathily (transactions, less repos etc), considering that surely prices for new builds such as that set the tone for the prices of every other type of house in the 'chain'?

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in my opinion what they were at the peak is irrelevant to current FTBers. Its doesnt matter cos in the last few months before the peak there would have been very little ftbers purchasing at that stage abyway due to the ridiculous prices.

I still think that 160k for a new semi in a decent area is too much in comparison to what people are earning at the minute. do you not think it is too high for the majority of say couples in mid 20s-mid 30s? Add in maybe a child or two there as well and there is just no sustainability in those prices for the market to function at any sort of significant level.

So what will happen? Either wages increase (not going to happen). Or prices drop, for both existing houses and new builds. Or the current situation that exists where transactions levels are barely above flatlining? In the latter scenario the construction sector erodes further, more people default on current mortgages, EAs go aout of business en masse.

BelfastVI, i respect alot of your opinions on here, and i think you usually always put across your points well reasoned, but i would ask you, do you think that if new build semi prices stay at about 150k do you see the market as a whole being able to function more helathily (transactions, less repos etc), considering that surely prices for new builds such as that set the tone for the prices of every other type of house in the 'chain'?

I agree with your point on the irrelevance of what the prices were at peak. Most of that was investor driven and both the FTB'ers and the normal movers exited the buying some six months prior to the peak.

The problem with 'good areas' as I call them is you don't get the average person buying in them. They therefore sell at more than average. Someone on average income cannot normally buy a house on the Molone Road or even alot of Stranmillis and other expensive areas. Averages may go up and down but some areas stay that bit above average, just as other areas stay that bit below average. The problems arise when 'up and coming areas' that have always been well below average start to increase to and above the average prices.

I don't regard truncation levels as anywhere near flat-lining (I assume you mean dead or non-existent). They are about 1/3, or more of normal transaction levels, going by some of the reports. Whilst I don't expect prices to rise I believe transaction levels have been.

An average semi in NI is probably around £130 to £135k. You will need at least a 10% deposit leaving a loan amount of say £120k. At a ratio of 3.5 you would need a household income of £35k. At a ratio of 3 you would need a household income of £40k. Townhouses are normally cheaper. The average new Townhouse in Ni is probably about £120k, so on the same product you would need a household income of £30k for a ratio of 3.5. If you were to include the existing stock that is being sold then the average for Townhouses/existing Terraced is probably closer to £100k. Again, for a ratio of 3.5 the household income would need to be £25k. It is perhaps not fair to use all the houses being currently sold in places like North Belfast to demonstrate affordability as, with respect, alot of the people looking to buy a house would not live in those houses. Whilst they will take the averages down they don't really affect the price of the house you wish to live in.

I don't know what is the correct ratio, as so many other factors are as important.

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Townhouses are normally cheaper. The average new Townhouse in Ni is probably about £120k

12 years ago a family friend of mine sold his 5 bedroom, detached house with half an acre of a garden for £120k. I can remember everyone gasping at this 'huge amount of money' for a house.

That might seem inconceivable to some but I assure you that this is the truth.

Things are seriously wrong when a townhouse is deemed as good value at £120k.

Edited by tinbin

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I don't know if I am mistaken but over the weekend and the last couple of days Reeds Rain have added hundreds of new builds to the propertynews portal. Different builders and different types of houses but it made me think there was a glut of new builds on the market just now.

I can confirm - around 13 in my area on one day - Developer in CVA, for some time. Possibly ties in with Realistic EA's info/expectations. Trying to catch a few during last few weeks of 'spring bounce'. Prices are slightly higher than other similar new builds on same estate (or even the same ones which were previously advertised by other EA's - about 7%). A ploy, I expect, to allow for negotiation or the inevetible price drops around Aug, when some will think they are a 'bargain'.

Reeds Rains do seem to get pretty realistic pretty quick usually (well moreso than some of the others), though I suppose it depends on what the bank directs IRO price.

Useful for market saturation, if nothing else.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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