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2 Years Ago Rogoff Wrote Of A Wave Of Defaults


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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/business/global/01debt.html?_r=1&hp

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economist whose recent book, “This Time Is Different,” chronicles 800 years of financial crises, said: “I think right now every vulnerable country has one or two deep-pocketed backers that pretty much rule out a sudden run.” But Mr. Rogoff said he expected a wave of defaults about two years from now, when the countries now serving as implicit guarantors turn their focus to economic problems at home.

Not too sure if Rogoff was expecting companies to default who've been back by the states or for those states who've backed the banks to fail.

His timing appears to be spot on with the PIIGS, although he may have been expecting the defaults elsewhere other than at the national level.

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Got the book, I've read it. Academic-type work.

Showed how financial crises have historically morphed into sovereign default crises in the decade following.

But the sovereign defaults were in different countries, not the US (in 1929).

Max Keiser implies they either let a whole load of banks go bust, or they continue to print money to cover the banks' losses and the dollar goes bust instead.

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Got the book, I've read it. Academic-type work.

Showed how financial crises have historically morphed into sovereign default crises in the decade following.

Is the book worth getting?

Shocking that a Professor produces an academic-type work :P It's not written in crayon then? No pictures to colour in? :lol::lol:

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Is the book worth getting?

Shocking that a Professor produces an academic-type work :P It's not written in crayon then? No pictures to colour in? :lol::lol:

It was my Christmas book a couple of years ago and it is a good read and a useful work of reference, tracing events over eight centuries. It is certainly worth reading a second hand copy - it's a hardback so is a bit expensive to buy new.

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It was my Christmas book a couple of years ago and it is a good read and a useful work of reference, tracing events over eight centuries. It is certainly worth reading a second hand copy - it's a hardback so is a bit expensive to buy new.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=rogoff&x=0&y=0

Looking here it's still expensive 2nd hand.

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