Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

The Chart That Says It All About Hpc...

Recommended Posts

1. The floor of -18% is because that's the lowest observed. They also have a ceiling of +30%, but not because that's the highest possible.

2. Extend the line connecting the lows for long enough and you'll get -100%. That doesn't mean that -100% (or -30%) is going to happen.

It looks an interesting chart, but someone has obviosuly chosen their start point very wisely for effect. Why does it start randomly half way through 2002? Because that's what helps their spin.

Start it in 1945 and then let's see the long term patterns.

1. Quite possibly and possibly because they needed room in the article for more text. My point was to highlight that the floor chosen in the chart didn't necessarily mean that -18% was the % YoY limit (i.e. an intentionally or unintentionally implied floor) and larger falls are quite easy to imagine.

2. I quite agree and I didn't say that -30% YoY was actually going to happen but that if the current trend was followed then it was a possibility and that it became more likely as the years go by as the total amounts of money involved became smaller in a declining market. Mind you I bet some people would really like -100% YoY.

3. I agree a more extended chart would have been useful but nevertheless the information shown was still quite interesting

Edited by billybong
Link to post
Share on other sites

If a shock is indeed unlikely, it becomes more likely that the boom will end with a whimper rather than a bang – a period of stable prices before they start falling over a lengthy period. Such a reversal is also unlikely to emerge inside less than a year, given the present buoyancy of the market.

Just to emphasise that the present buoyancy of the market in 2007 resulted of course in a crash.

Edited by billybong
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.