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Ratings Agency Say Irish Housing Market Has Bottomed Out

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This morning saw the bizarre spectacle of ratings agency Standard and Poors claiming Irish property prices have bottomed out. Now, given ratings agencies inability to forecast anything recently one wonders why they are putting forward this obviously ill founded judgement on property prices....

'House prices have hit bottom' -- and won't be moving soon

By Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

Thursday May 05 2011

Ireland's housing market has now hit the bottom but it may be several years before prices start recovering, a leading credit ratings agency said yesterday.

Standard & Poor's said the Irish property market was coming to the end of a "correction'' in prices, but with interest rates set to rise, prices were unlikely to show much growth.

"Ireland's prices have corrected but there's no recovery in sight," said the American-based agency.

The agency claimed prices had fallen 33pc from the peak, but many people believe the falls have been much steeper. It added that Ireland's falls were the largest in western Europe since the global recession began.

"Irish house prices have, in our opinion, completed their correction but it will take time -- probably another couple of years -- before we see tangible signs of market activity resuming," said a new report, which looked at the whole European market.

Prices are now back at 2000 levels and are far more affordable for ordinary buyers.

"This suggests that, unlike other markets, Ireland has pretty much fully corrected the excess of the previous housing bubble. Still, this does not mean that the market is about to pick up again soon, in our view," said the company.

"We continue to see uncertainties about the extent of supply overhang that still needs to be absorbed," said the company.

It said there were different estimates around about how much excess supply there was in the Irish market. At the upper range, some analysts believe there are 300,000 excess houses and apartments in the Irish market.

"More recent estimates from the Irish Department of the Environment point to a much lower number of 23,000, but based on a smaller survey of recently completed estates," the agency pointed out.

The general health of the economy was also likely to play a part in prices, said Standard & Poor's.

"Ireland's overall economic situation, with growth expected to remain very weak this year on the back of a severe fiscal adjustment, combined with the likely gradual rise in eurozone interest rates, does not call for much optimism regarding the short-term housing market," said the agency.

Standard & Poor's used house price data from the ESRI and Permanent TSB. Some analysts believe these figures understate the full extent of the recent price declines.

- Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

The last line says it all...... a more apt opinion would be the voices aired on this thread.

http://www.politics.ie/economy/159741-house-prices-hit-bottom-says-s-p-report.html

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This morning saw the bizarre spectacle of ratings agency Standard and Poors claiming Irish property prices have bottomed out. Now, given ratings agencies inability to forecast anything recently one wonders why they are putting forward this obviously ill founded judgement on property prices....

'House prices have hit bottom' -- and won't be moving soon

By Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

Thursday May 05 2011

Ireland's housing market has now hit the bottom but it may be several years before prices start recovering, a leading credit ratings agency said yesterday.

Standard & Poor's said the Irish property market was coming to the end of a "correction'' in prices, but with interest rates set to rise, prices were unlikely to show much growth.

"Ireland's prices have corrected but there's no recovery in sight," said the American-based agency.

The agency claimed prices had fallen 33pc from the peak, but many people believe the falls have been much steeper. It added that Ireland's falls were the largest in western Europe since the global recession began.

"Irish house prices have, in our opinion, completed their correction but it will take time -- probably another couple of years -- before we see tangible signs of market activity resuming," said a new report, which looked at the whole European market.

Prices are now back at 2000 levels and are far more affordable for ordinary buyers.

"This suggests that, unlike other markets, Ireland has pretty much fully corrected the excess of the previous housing bubble. Still, this does not mean that the market is about to pick up again soon, in our view," said the company.

"We continue to see uncertainties about the extent of supply overhang that still needs to be absorbed," said the company.

It said there were different estimates around about how much excess supply there was in the Irish market. At the upper range, some analysts believe there are 300,000 excess houses and apartments in the Irish market.

"More recent estimates from the Irish Department of the Environment point to a much lower number of 23,000, but based on a smaller survey of recently completed estates," the agency pointed out.

The general health of the economy was also likely to play a part in prices, said Standard & Poor's.

"Ireland's overall economic situation, with growth expected to remain very weak this year on the back of a severe fiscal adjustment, combined with the likely gradual rise in eurozone interest rates, does not call for much optimism regarding the short-term housing market," said the agency.

Standard & Poor's used house price data from the ESRI and Permanent TSB. Some analysts believe these figures understate the full extent of the recent price declines.

- Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

The last line says it all...... a more apt opinion would be the voices aired on this thread.

http://www.politics.ie/economy/159741-house-prices-hit-bottom-says-s-p-report.html

This is great UK bear food- plenty of UK-based plonkers are now diverting money into Irish and American property as they think it has bottomed. Which means less money finding a home in the UK.

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I looked at the daft.ie property website recently. Prices in Dublin still look very expensive to me. Young people leaving the country in droves and they still have a huge debt problem. How's the country going to grow? It's more likely it's the bottom of the first wave of misery. I think it's still got further to fall. We shall see.

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The national asset blackhole, NAMA, announced large scale liquidation of residential portfolios a couple of months ago, to complete in 2013.

But they followed that up by saying they'd provide financing for purchasers! Isn't that how Barclays dodged the bullet in 2008?

My guess is 2013 may see the beginning of the end of the crash.

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Whatever.

That ratings agency is talking complete horsesh1t as they are ignoring the Republics dire economic outlook, which has only just begun its second leg down to oblivion.

The only hope for the Republic is elect a strong government and go the direction of Iceland.

But, there will always be folk selling talking up the market. Good for them.

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If trichet is serious about rate rises ( which he isn't in my opinion ) then irish house prices will tank. Due to the strong euro they are still vastly overpriced in non euro currency so I don't think Brits will be tempted tet

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I was over in Dublin last month and couldn't believe the general cost of everyday things. No wonder their economy is well and truely fcked.

Ireland still has more to fall.

No housing market is at a bottom when real interest rates are still negative.

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The American housing market will lead the others, mostly (still going down).

It is unlikely, a minnow can swim against the tide.

Edited by Money Spinner

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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