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Interview With A Home Seller

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Met a lady yesterday (elderly widow) who is planning to trade down and move into town.

Me: So did you get a few EAs in

Her: I got 2 to come around

Me: So what did the first one say

Her: 235,000

Me: And the second one?

Her: 239,000

Me: So you went with the second one then

Her: Well he seemed like the nicest one too

Me: I bet he seemed like a very nice man. Have you had any interest?

Her: I've had an offer for 200,000 but it's worth more than that.

Me: Didn't you try for 220,000?

Her: No i'm not selling it for that.

Me: How much did you think it was worth before you got the EAs in?

Her: I didn't have a clue

What is the cure for this? It doesn't matter how keen EAs are to move houses on if they are unable to get houses on their books without over pricing other EAs. Even if home owners start to accept that prices are coming down the EAs will still assume they have to give the highest imaginable price, delighting home owners and giving them false expectations again. This lady has already spent that £239,000 in her mind so taking £200,000 will be like losing 40k of cruises that were rightfully hers. She bought the house for £2000 some time ago.

Is the fault with the EAs? It's understandable that they have to give a high valuation to get the contract. The home owners? Only natural that they'll prefer the higher price.

What is the answer to this problem?

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Met a lady yesterday (elderly widow) who is planning to trade down and move into town.

Me: So did you get a few EAs in

Her: I got 2 to come around

Me: So what did the first one say

Her: 235,000

Me: And the second one?

Her: 239,000

Me: So you went with the second one then

Her: Well he seemed like the nicest one too

Me: I bet he seemed like a very nice man. Have you had any interest?

Her: I've had an offer for 200,000 but it's worth more than that.

Me: Didn't you try for 220,000?

Her: No i'm not selling it for that.

Me: How much did you think it was worth before you got the EAs in?

Her: I didn't have a clue

What is the cure for this? It doesn't matter how keen EAs are to move houses on if they are unable to get houses on their books without over pricing other EAs. Even if home owners start to accept that prices are coming down the EAs will still assume they have to give the highest imaginable price, delighting home owners and giving them false expectations again. This lady has already spent that £239,000 in her mind so taking £200,000 will be like losing 40k of cruises that were rightfully hers. She bought the house for £2000 some time ago.

Is the fault with the EAs? It's understandable that they have to give a high valuation to get the contract. The home owners? Only natural that they'll prefer the higher price.

What is the answer to this problem?

There is no problem, other than you worrying about it.

People should be free to make their own choices, and take all that goes with them. If she wants to hold out for more money, that is her choice. The consequence could be that she is disappointed, and sits in her property for too long, or the price falls and she sells out later for a much lower price, or she gets her price.

That is how markets are, people making their own decisions. No matter how stupid they seem to you or me, people should have the right to make them.

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What is the answer to this problem?

A year on the market with no sale seems like the answer. If people really want to sell, they'll drop the price in time. Many dont really want to sell though. I wonder which category she falls into? That £40k of cruises etc is worth careful consideration. She may get lucky with some mug coming along, seems unlikely now though, HPC mentality is going mainstream.

She might be trading down to a 6 foot by 2 foot wooden box before she sells the house..

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The EA and the vendor can talk about any number they like. Until a buyer walks in and makes an offer ( that holds water), the EA and the vendor will continue to live in the land of hope. The more offers, the more the picture of reality is painted. Eventually, the vendor and EA will accept the reality and bite.

The problem is that the EA and vendor are not chasing the downward market trend. So, in your case, by the time the vendor capitulates and accepts £200k, this offer may have evaporated and end up being the asking price and so the process continues.

EAs and house vendors have had 15+ years of a rising market where it was easy to sell. If your asking price was wildly out, you just waited a little for the market to catch up. A buyer over bidding had the same comfort. These people do not know how to sell into a falling market. In fact they don't realise the market is falling !!!!

You just have to assume that because many houses are up for sale they are not seriously on the market. Just walk on.

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She might be trading down to a 6 foot by 2 foot wooden box before she sells the house..

Quite possibly. When we look at RM, it goes a little like this:

Death house

Repossession

Redundancy

Death house

Sold, available (again - unexpectedly)

Flipper

Deluded boomer

etc.....

Edited by pyracantha

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What is the cure for this? It doesn't matter how keen EAs are to move houses on if they are unable to get houses on their books without over pricing other EAs. Even if home owners start to accept that prices are coming down the EAs will still assume they have to give the highest imaginable price, delighting home owners and giving them false expectations again. This lady has already spent that £239,000 in her mind so taking £200,000 will be like losing 40k of cruises that were rightfully hers. She bought the house for £2000 some time ago.

Is the fault with the EAs? It's understandable that they have to give a high valuation to get the contract. The home owners? Only natural that they'll prefer the higher price.

What is the answer to this problem?

It would help if the EAs were professionals. I've never had a British estate agent show me a full page of comparable properties sold recently. Thanks to sites like houseprices.co.uk you can research them yourself. British EAs should be regularly audited to expose corruption. They love to prey on old people and FTBs.

EAs deliberately increase the property valuation to win business. They will then come back a month later and tell you the market is slow and ask you to drop the price. Many estate agents are just thieves dressed in cheap suits.

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It would help if the EAs were professionals. I've never had a British estate agent show me a full page of comparable properties sold recently. Thanks to sites like houseprices.co.uk you can research them yourself. British EAs should be regularly audited to expose corruption. They love to prey on old people and FTBs. .

A massively over priced house went on the market where i've been watching last week, so much so i couldn't help phoning the EA for a laugh. House was up at £390k while according to Zoopla no house had ever been sold on that street for more than £260. When i quoted zoopla EA said exasperated "Argh, thats the trouble with the internet it doesn't give the real picture of the market" he then went on to explain how ONE house nearby had recently gone for £3xx K and therefore this house also would. House ASKING prices in this area are rocketing at the moment, normal looking 3 bed semis all approaching £400k, i think all based on a few over priced sales causing a few more mad asking prices which has now become the norm. It's gone mental.

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They're not forced sellers then. £40K of cruises! FFS!

All the houses I've looked at are repos, or the people are going into rented for financial reasons. I feel these kind of vendors I have a fighting chance with rather than kite flyers. I am close to exchanging contracts BTW.

Always ask the position of the vendor from the EA.

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I am close to exchanging contracts BTW.

Do you feel it's a good time to buy then?

All the indicators are for a tough 5 years.

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Quite possibly. When we look at RM, it goes a little like this:

Death house

Repossession

Redundancy

Death house

Sold, available (again - unexpectedly)

Flipper

Deluded boomer

etc.....

+ 1

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What is the answer to this problem?

Break down sellers into meaningful categories,

Repossession

Auctioned or sold within a tight time scale, best offer accepted, efficiently establishes market pricing.

Desperate Sellers

Divorcing, emigrating, selling an inherited property with money being shared amongst squabbling relatives, etc. Yes, these people will initially price according the EA's advice...but then they'll be on the phone to the EA every few days and will soon talk their own price down.

Keen Sellers

Trading up or down, moving for job reasons, growing family, etc. They'll take the highest price on offer providing that price permits their future property plans.

Price Adamant Sellers

Want to sell, but only if they achieve a specific price.

Potential Sellers

Might sell if price is high enough, but don't have specific moving plans. Likely to also bring a long list of unrealistic conditions to any sale, like insisting on a delayed completion date. Removal of HIPS has allowed them to easily and cheaply offer their property to the market on a whim. Unfortunately they often drive local asking prices.

To really get HPC moving we need more repossessions. With repossessions the new pricing reality gets established quickly and everyone can see the current market for what it really is, this scares off "potential sellers" and "price adamant sellers".

Without repossessions it's a war of attrition fought over many many years, maybe decades, and with inflation doing the real work. Right now repossessions are too low. Government cuts or material interest rate rises could change that and quickly. But whether they actually happen is anyone's guess.

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Do you feel it's a good time to buy then?

All the indicators are for a tough 5 years.

Here goes...

I am FTB at 31, and will be living in this house for sometime. It's in a good area not far from work - the best we've seen in our budget (although not in the New Forest, we'll need another £50K deposit for that area). I am borrowing 3x my salary and my job is OK. I will have some cash left over, and stocks in uptrending shares to hedge against property falls. My partner's health is not brilliant lately having to give up work, she had a pituitary gland tumour removed when she was younger and the tiredness after effects is now catching up with her, so I need to give her all the best life experiences I can offer (her own garden in this case). For us it's the right time - no gazumping is occurring either at the moment. This is a window of opportunity through till 2015 to buy on weakness, with average house prices falling to £120,000 nationally. I am optimistic for the next generation, houseprices WILL BE VERY affordable.

If I wanted to make money in property, I'd do it through the bank/builder shares (which went up 5x) when the next boom comes along well after 2015. I reckon I could make the same amount of money for the proportional effort exerted as "pwoperty developers", and that's without the hassle of lifting up a paintbrush or going into the anti-social past time of buy to let.

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Quite possibly. When we look at RM, it goes a little like this:

Death house

Repossession

Redundancy

Death house

Sold, available (again - unexpectedly)

Flipper

Deluded boomer

etc.....

I see the same thing, a bit like cypher seeing only blondes, brunettes in the Matrix.

As a tribute I have created this:

wrong%2Bmove.jpg

These are taken from real listings in BH1.

Edited by Money Spinner

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Here goes...

I am FTB at 31, and will be living in this house for sometime. It's in a good area not far from work - the best we've seen in our budget (although not in the New Forest, we'll need another £50K deposit for that area). I am borrowing 3x my salary and my job is OK. I will have some cash left over, and stocks in uptrending shares to hedge against property falls. My partner's health is not brilliant lately having to give up work, she had a pituitary gland tumour removed when she was younger and the tiredness after effects is now catching up with her, so I need to give her all the best life experiences I can offer (her own garden in this case). For us it's the right time - no gazumping is occurring either at the moment. This is a window of opportunity through till 2015 to buy on weakness, with average house prices falling to £120,000 nationally. I am optimistic for the next generation, houseprices WILL BE VERY affordable.

If I wanted to make money in property, I'd do it through the bank/builder shares (which went up 5x) when the next boom comes along well after 2015. I reckon I could make the same amount of money for the proportional effort exerted as "pwoperty developers", and that's without the hassle of lifting up a paintbrush or going into the anti-social past time of buy to let.

Great post! I'm a 32 year old cash FTB and bought in Feb in BH2 at around late 2003 price.

Possibly not the best time to buy but my (and my partners) quality of life have increased immeasurably.

There is no stamp duty at the moment and eventually with a bit of peristence vendors are talked down.

If house prices fall 20% then i'm 35K-40K worse off (for the nanosecond that house prices are at the bottom), but I am saving >8K a year in rent and lets be honest, the worlds population is going to double by 2040 so houses are never really going to be a bad bet long term, particularly in nice areas, which Bournemouth is. I have no intention on moving (ever), just renting it out for periods if work takes us elsewhere.

If the market bottoms significantly lower, we'll just take out a mortgage on the deposit we have saved up since our purchase and buy a property for investment.

I love this forum, appreciate the knowledge and experience of conributers, but it is massively one sided. I read one thread the other day where posters were seeing conspiracies and motives in articles which simply did not exist (at least in my mind). At times it appears posters are going to extreme lengths to trawl up negative info on the housing market, just to post on this board. The internet is a big resource, you can pretty much find anything you want to support your point of view if you look long and hard enough. Everybody can make more money if they wait, and wait, and wait but the fact of the matter is that we are only in this world for a very short time.

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wrong%2Bmove.jpg

:lol: classic

shame it's so true though, what we need is some catastrophic event, like a breakup of the Euro and the bankruptcy of most of our debtors. What we'll still need though even then is a missile strike on the MSM's house price ramping machine. We need a house price crash to start filling our screens, until that happens there is no house price crash.

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Great post! I'm a 32 year old cash FTB and bought in Feb in BH2 at around late 2003 price.

, but I am saving >8K a year in rent ......

you dont pay interest on your mortgage ? guess not at todays rates

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A massively over priced house went on the market where i've been watching last week, so much so i couldn't help phoning the EA for a laugh. House was up at £390k while according to Zoopla no house had ever been sold on that street for more than £260. When i quoted zoopla EA said exasperated "Argh, thats the trouble with the internet it doesn't give the real picture of the market" he then went on to explain how ONE house nearby had recently gone for £3xx K and therefore this house also would. House ASKING prices in this area are rocketing at the moment, normal looking 3 bed semis all approaching £400k, i think all based on a few over priced sales causing a few more mad asking prices which has now become the norm. It's gone mental.

A fairly nice barn conversion that failed to sell a year ago at 425k has been offered for rent, first at 850 pm then at 825 pm since July 10 with zero interest. It is still advertised for rent but last week it came back on the market for .................................................................625k!

At the original asking price the yield would have been 2.3%. The current yield would be 1.6%.

Maybe it will appeal to a cash rich BTL merchant. :P

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Great post! I'm a 32 year old cash FTB and bought in Feb in BH2 at around late 2003 price.

Possibly not the best time to buy but my (and my partners) quality of life have increased immeasurably.

There is no stamp duty at the moment and eventually with a bit of peristence vendors are talked down.

If house prices fall 20% then i'm 35K-40K worse off (for the nanosecond that house prices are at the bottom), but I am saving >8K a year in rent and lets be honest, the worlds population is going to double by 2040 so houses are never really going to be a bad bet long term, particularly in nice areas, which Bournemouth is. I have no intention on moving (ever), just renting it out for periods if work takes us elsewhere.

If the market bottoms significantly lower, we'll just take out a mortgage on the deposit we have saved up since our purchase and buy a property for investment.

I love this forum, appreciate the knowledge and experience of conributers, but it is massively one sided. I read one thread the other day where posters were seeing conspiracies and motives in articles which simply did not exist (at least in my mind). At times it appears posters are going to extreme lengths to trawl up negative info on the housing market, just to post on this board. The internet is a big resource, you can pretty much find anything you want to support your point of view if you look long and hard enough. Everybody can make more money if they wait, and wait, and wait but the fact of the matter is that we are only in this world for a very short time.

Spoken like a true bull in bears clothing.

"House prices only ever go up, they aren't building any more land, it's an investment, renting is dead money, get on with your life - it's too short."

If we were playing HPC VI cliché bingo then I'd say you've got a full house. Well done.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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