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House Prices 'to Fall For The Next Five Years' In Longest Property Slump For A Lifetime

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Drip, drip , drip

They are slowly feeding it to the the masses

Love some of the comments though...John from London doesn't like it!!

I don't think that talking down the market will have any real effect when there simply aren't enough houses to go round. The only thing that will bring down prices will be the building of thousands of new homes - and that will only happen as we ride out of the recession....and that's when people have more money...so prices will go back up! This article simply represents wishful thinking from the author.

- John, London, UK, 05/5/2011 00:39

Nor Mike

Sensationalist reporting by DM! It's all about supply and demand, and whether a homeowner is willing to sell at a loss. Prices may not increase substantially, but they won't plummet either - even if hopeful investors try and influence he market for their own gains!!

- Mike, Peterborough, UK, 05/5/2011 00:32

Sensationalist reporting about house prices from the Daily Mail , who'd have thought it!! :rolleyes:

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I actually agree that this is the likely scenario for UK housing now.

5 years worth of 3.5-4% inflation will roughly work out as a 20% fall in real terms anyway, plus a small nominal fall will take us to 25-30% for the "cheap in real terms" bottom around 2015-2016.

If interest rates are raised then the timeframe will be shortened but the nominal fall will be greater.

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Cant see us getting 10% down by end of this year.

3% down so yoy on LR I think another 7% over the next 7 months isn't unreasonable.

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Sensationalist reporting about house prices from the Daily Mail , who'd have thought it!! :rolleyes:

We won't have hit bottom until the Daily Express finally concedes prices are dropping and need to be lower. That's when I'll rush out and buy 20 house to let out ;)

Disclaimer: I am joking about the BTL bit

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Five years is less than the slump in the 1990s. It would have to be a lot longer to be the biggest slump in my lifetime.

This one started in 2007-8 and was 10 years in the making.

Prices won't halve over a period of 2 years like they doubled between 2001 and 2003 but with prices my way now at July 2004 levels it's all heading in the right, and inevitable, direction.

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Article says nothing particularly new... but the comments are a funny read.

Lots of property speculators getting hot under the collar :D

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From the comments...

Excessive housing costs are now the biggest competitive disadvantage facing this country, we pay far more in rent and mortgage costs than our European neighbours. We have been blinded to the effects on our disposable incomes and standard of living because many people, egged on by the vested interests and the government, have made huge short-term paper gains from speculating in the property market. But, having gorged itself to excess, that market has now ground to a halt because buyers can't afford the prices while sellers can't afford to lower them. We all know about 'rip-off' Britain, when is the penny going to drop that housing in this country is the biggest rip-off of all?

- Steve, Brighton, 5/5/2011 10:19

+1

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That's wouldn't be year on year, that'd be over 19 months....

You're right. The falls would have to accelerate somewhat towards the second half to maintain -10% yoy.

To march 2011 it's -1.7% so abother 8.3% to go in 9 months. Still seems do able to me.

But taken monthly i

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I agree with thegeneral thrust of the article.I think it's likely that we will see no change in actual prices but that inflation will erode real values by 20-25% over a five year period.

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I agree with thegeneral thrust of the article.I think it's likely that we will see no change in actual prices but that inflation will erode real values by 20-25% over a five year period.

but will wages go up another 20-25% in five years?

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but will wages go up another 20-25% in five years?

Not only that real wages must rise 20-25%. This may of been possible with imported deflation off the back of low paid foreign workers (circa 1985-2008), However, this is very unlikely for the foreseeable future with a weak currency and raging inflation overseas. Game over!

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I agree with thegeneral thrust of the article.I think it's likely that we will see no change in actual prices but that inflation will erode real values by 20-25% over a five year period.

No wage inflation but inflation in everything else does the opposite - it's the equivalent of wage deflation and other things remaining stationary. Unless wages start inflating at the same rate as everything else then inflation is increasing, not decreasing, real prices.

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No wage inflation but inflation in everything else does the opposite - it's the equivalent of wage deflation and other things remaining stationary. Unless wages start inflating at the same rate as everything else then inflation is increasing, not decreasing, real prices.

Spot on!

So in essence in 2015 we'll be in exactly the same predicament (actually the average person will be a lot worse off!)

Time we all woke up and start to strategise on the actual facts, rather than living in cloud cuckoo land and hoping that random and baseless wishful thinking that I often read on here will magically materialises – it wont!

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No wage inflation but inflation in everything else does the opposite - it's the equivalent of wage deflation and other things remaining stationary. Unless wages start inflating at the same rate as everything else then inflation is increasing, not decreasing, real prices.

It's amazing the number of people who don't understand that it's wage inflation, not price inflation, that destroys debt.

If we continue to have RPI/CPI running several percent above wage rises (which we will in this globalised marketplace) then houses become less affordable, not more affordable.

We are at the inflection point - sit back and enjoy the ride for the next few years, and be happy renting.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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