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gruffydd

Just Seen A Truly Major Fall - Prices Crashing In Wales

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Started at way over £400,000 - now 180,000 and offers only coming in at 150 and below.

Seeing major falls across SW Wales. Many people are leaving the area for good. BTL totally reliant on DHSS over large swathes of the region - major downshifts going on in these places.

This is it. It's not pretty.

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Checked out a nice estate I've been watching for a while - stuck at £189,000 for a long time, over a year, now in the 160s and falling. People have woken up to the new reality. Austerity Britain. Austerity Wales.

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Excellent news. Thankyou.

Interestingly, EAs are telling me there's still a major price stand off going on. And lots of new properties hitting the market.

When interest rates go up, Wales will be a property bloodbath.

Edited by gruffydd

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Good to hear it Gruff.

I am hearing more and more about people packing up and leaving.

Neighbours at the end of my road went 3 months ago to Reading for work, still have their house for sale and to let, whichever comes first I guess, here in Swansea.

I think I am going to have to make the move also. Big decision to make, but I can sense an exodus beginning.

Where was this house Gruff?

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The bottom end is falling rapidly in the SE Wales mostly due to the BTL brigade starting to bail out in the middle of last year but have gather pace in the last four months

There is a ever widening gulf between the bottom and the middle the tipping point must be very close you can know smell the fear

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Good to hear it Gruff.

I am hearing more and more about people packing up and leaving.

Neighbours at the end of my road went 3 months ago to Reading for work, still have their house for sale and to let, whichever comes first I guess, here in Swansea.

I think I am going to have to make the move also. Big decision to make, but I can sense an exodus beginning.

Where was this house Gruff?

You can include me in that. Five years in Wales, and I am off back to London in a month or two. I never bought here, but that's one more (potential) buyer now gone.

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You can include me in that. Five years in Wales, and I am off back to London in a month or two. I never bought here, but that's one more (potential) buyer now gone.

Why are you going? Job or something else?

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Why are you going? Job or something else?

Job, Internal transfer...

Still counts though because had I stayed I would have bought in a years time maybe.

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Commuting over the severn - even to just Bristol with escalating travel costs will outweigh any extra income for most, the last 12 months will have removed any gain from marginally cheaper prices across the border - now there has to be a very large differential.

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its more than just a change in attitude - reality has hit home. they are forced to drop their price.

the fact of the matter is, homes are not selling. you can stick your house on as high as you want but no want wants it. mortgage approvals are still down at 30 odd thousand.

if you stuck 10,000 home made t-shirts on ebay at £50, sure, maybe you will sell a few. but just because a few do sell at that price that doesnt mean thats what they are worth. most will go unsold.

they only way the other 9900 will sell is if you drop the price.

Edited by mfp123

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its more than just a change of opinions - reality has hit home. they are forced to drop their price.

the fact of the matter is, homes are not selling. you can stick you house on as high as you want but no want wants it. mortgage approvals are still down at 30 odd thousand.

if you stuck 10,000 home made t-shirts on ebay at £50, sure, maybe you will sell a few. but just because a few do sell at that price that doesnt mean thats what they are worth.

they only way the other 9900 will sell is if you drop the price.

epic fail, you can take out a loan and buy them off yourself for 60 quid a pop

nothing personal but i despair the lack of entrepreneurial foresight on here sometimes

Edited by georgia o'keeffe

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We've always agreed on HPC for years, that Wales will have a very bad, deep crash, when it gets started. It's not going to be pretty.

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Started at way over £400,000 - now 180,000 and offers only coming in at 150 and below.

Seeing major falls across SW Wales. Many people are leaving the area for good. BTL totally reliant on DHSS over large swathes of the region - major downshifts going on in these places.

This is it. It's not pretty.

You're a real drama queen gruffydd. Not seeing it myself in S W Wales. MIght be the case in Ebbw Vale and one or two similar places but not widespread.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-13282978

In Blaenau Gwent, prices were down nearly 20% over the year.

Ebbw Vale is in Blaenau Gwent.

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a report on house prices:

There is a very good correlation between the BoE mortgage approvals for house purchase SA numbers and reported YoY house price inflation (HPI) about six months later - an approvals level of about 80k to 90k per month corresponds to neutral HPI. This follows because in the property market price inflation is strongly correlated with transaction volume.

house price inflation and BoE approvals correlation

hpi_scatter_plot.jpg

quite obviously, the higher the number of mortgage approvals - the higher the house price inflation.

mortgage approvals are currently near the 30-35k mark.

Edited by mfp123

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Good to hear it Gruff.

I am hearing more and more about people packing up and leaving.

Neighbours at the end of my road went 3 months ago to Reading for work, still have their house for sale and to let, whichever comes first I guess, here in Swansea.

I think I am going to have to make the move also. Big decision to make, but I can sense an exodus beginning.

Where was this house Gruff?

Not a million miles from Swansea - will let you know when it sells (may be a long wait yet) - all offers received so far under £150,000. A relation is one of the people trying to buy it!

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You're a real drama queen gruffydd. Not seeing it myself in S W Wales. MIght be the case in Ebbw Vale and one or two similar places but not widespread.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-13282978

Ebbw Vale is in Blaenau Gwent.

Nope, just an ex ea with an unhealthy interest in the property market who got bored of tracking properties and posting on here - guess what happened when I stopped!

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You're a real drama queen gruffydd. Not seeing it myself in S W Wales. MIght be the case in Ebbw Vale and one or two similar places but not widespread.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-13282978

Ebbw Vale is in Blaenau Gwent.

How dare you insult me. I am just reporting what I'm seeing. Where are you tracking property prices exactly?

I thought you were up in N Wales anyway. Somewhere on the Llyn ;)

Just checked more properties on my list and look - another major downshift in price - I highlighted this one many months ago http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30183149.html

Edited by gruffydd

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I thought you were a gog?

Nope. :-)

With regards to people leaving...... I did speak to a Polish friend this week and he said that many Poles were leaving and that there weren't that many compared to a couple of years ago. He said many were hoping to find work in Germany which is a lot more convenient for them being next door. He has lived in Carmarthenshire.....Ammanford and Carmarthen itself.

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Nope. :-)

With regards to people leaving...... I did speak to a Polish friend this week and he said that many Poles were leaving and that there weren't that many compared to a couple of years ago. He said many were hoping to find work in Germany which is a lot more convenient for them being next door. He has lived in Carmarthenshire.....Ammanford and Carmarthen itself.

As you know, I have Polish family - Germany - Netherlands - Belgium all popular destinations because of higher wages and lower living costs too. Who'll be left to work for Dawn Meats? I'm tracking places around Cwm Gwendraeth and know a few EAs very well in that area - Peters, etc. There is a sudden shift downwards.

I also know a few BTLers in that area - you know, 50-100 properties each - and they're bailing.

I didn't expect to see such price movements prior to the forthcoming IR hikes. I was totally wrong.

Edited by gruffydd

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a report on house prices:

There is a very good correlation between the BoE mortgage approvals for house purchase SA numbers and reported YoY house price inflation (HPI) about six months later - an approvals level of about 80k to 90k per month corresponds to neutral HPI. This follows because in the property market price inflation is strongly correlated with transaction volume.

house price inflation and BoE approvals correlation

hpi_scatter_plot.jpg

quite obviously, the higher the number of mortgage approvals - the higher the house price inflation.

mortgage approvals are currently near the 30-35k mark.

Great graph, the correlation is very clear. I wonder if the correlation is linear or not.

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Great graph, the correlation is very clear. I wonder if the correlation is linear or not.

Indeed great graph....however it would be "nice" to do justice to the site it comes from as this is a graph coming from http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/property_transactions/ (a link which needs to be included when reusing these graphs according to the copyright license).

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As you know, I have Polish family - Germany - Netherlands - Belgium all popular destinations because of higher wages and lower living costs too. Who'll be left to work for Dawn Meats? I'm tracking places around Cwm Gwendraeth and know a few EAs very well in that area - Peters, etc. There is a sudden shift downwards.

No I didn't know that. You have Polish blood or did you marry a Polish girl? Can you tell me? I know Germany has just opened it's doors or is opening it to the Poles etc. Is this also the case with other countries at this time? When did the Dutch and Belgians allow them in to work there? I know initially it was UK, Ireland and I think Norway? who opened up to them.

Edited by Caius

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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