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dude wheres my house

Big Fall In Scottish House Sales

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Anecdotal. I drove around the Isle of Arran a couple of weeks ago. Amazed to see the no. of houses up for sale. Boards everywhere. I joked with my other half that half the island seemed to be "For Sale". :D

Looks like the holiday home investor/speculator is trying to get out of the market big time.

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Where's Hamish to put a positive spin on this?

Oh, he's probably preaching to a choir of fools who like him who bought 'investment' property at the peak.

Aberdeen still up YoY (but not QoQ!)

scothpc.png

ED: From Registers of Scotland: LINK.

post-8051-0-94491400-1304417845_thumb.png

Edited by yellerkat

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Anecdotal. I drove around the Isle of Arran a couple of weeks ago. Amazed to see the no. of houses up for sale. Boards everywhere. I joked with my other half that half the island seemed to be "For Sale". :D

Looks like the holiday home investor/speculator is trying to get out of the market big time.

Wonder where all the money will come from?

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Rule:

90% of market is controlled by only 10% of the players (the big ones).

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23942682-house-builder-redrow-to-offload-loss-making-scottish-operations.do

Housebuilder Redrow abandons Scotland to boost building in South-East

April 2011

Money is leaving Scotland fast.

(I didn't think it was worth posting a thread about this, but the big falls prove the downward spiral is underpinned by the big money).

Edited by Money Spinner

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That is a staggering fall for Q1 2011. Especially as you would expect sales and prices to be up towards the end of the quarter. Anyone know if this is seasonally adjusted?

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Aberdeen still up YoY (but not QoQ!)

scothpc.png

ED: From Registers of Scotland: LINK.

Yes, its dropped less from peak versus other parts of the uk.

Having a net loss does not make one a savvy investor.

Not much to celebrate there I think...

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Where's Hamish to put a positive spin on this?

Oh, he's probably preaching to a choir of fools who like him who bought 'investment' property at the peak.

Might be worth a visit to MSE to see how he's taking it :)

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Anecdotal. I drove around the Isle of Arran a couple of weeks ago. Amazed to see the no. of houses up for sale. Boards everywhere. I joked with my other half that half the island seemed to be "For Sale". :D

Looks like the holiday home investor/speculator is trying to get out of the market big time.

It's a nice island, but there is no work there and transport is limited to a crap ferry seldom keeps time, if you require it for work.

The problem is the era of cheap travel is over. Arran will just see more English folk succumb to the waning market.

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Bloody hell - here in the SW of England 1 3rd of houses im looking at (Currently 92) went SSTC over the long weekend! I dont really know what happened but I expect to see well over 1/2 of them back on the market in within 3 months as seems to be the new trend.

I used to get very depressed last year right up until about Feb of this year looking at all the SSTC boards. I used to get fed up listening to the EAs gloat that they had sold 'it'.

Now I just go in to EAs and gloat asking "How many times have you sold it this year?"... What I have concluded is that there are loads of people out there - not sure whether they are just deluded or whether they are HPCers - putting in full asking price offers on stuff even though they do not have the funds to buy.

I am convinced loads still do not have any idea that the banks are now writing down EA asking prices enormously.

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I think in the case of Scotland it is more important to look at the year-on-year figures. In Edinburgh, which is the only part of the market that I know well, it is extremely seasonal. Quarter 4 to quarter 1 is sometimes slightly up, sometimes slightly down, but quarter 1 to quarter 2 in Edinburgh is always massively up.

Iā€™m glad to see that the annual change in Edinburgh is ā€“4.1%, but the annual change across the whole of Scotland is only ā€“1.1%.

Full Registers of Scotland report

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As the registers is a lagging index surely this is just recording the after effects of the awful weather in December when very few people will have gone looking at property hence fewer transaction a few months later?

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As the registers is a lagging index surely this is just recording the after effects of the awful weather in December when very few people will have gone looking at property hence fewer transaction a few months later?

yes, furthermore the average price of houses sold will have dropped, as it's much easier to view inner-city flats in bad weather due to heat island effects melting the snow and the council clearing the main roads, than wade through 18 inches of snow to paralysed edge-of-town estates or up the drives of the million pound properties.

:ph34r:

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I am sure Reporting Scotland will give us a nice piece later this evening. :rolleyes:

Or - on a more seirous note- they will just ignore any property related 'bad' news until something 'good' turns up.

Hope to be proved wrong. However I have been waiting about 3 years - and we have had perhaps 2 or 3 such small snippets. If that.

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Having had a look for edinburgh semi's (cos that's what I live in innit)

Semi-detached median prices:

edinburgh jan-mar 2010 jan-mar 2011 %inc oct-dec 2010 % inc

Edinburgh, City of 213,500 237,000 -9.9 225,000 -5.1

Semi-detached mean prices:

Edinburgh, City of 266,965 260,461 2.5 271,439 -1.6

So the mean price of a semi-detached house in edinburgh has risen since the same time last year but the median has dropped by a packet. And the higher mean values have moved around in a tighter price range than the median values? Is that possible?

Really it all depends what stat you pick for your particular wish.

having thought about it, that means the majority of semis have fallen in price for the median to drop, but the top end of the semi market must have rocketed to keep the mean as a more stable number than the median. Weird.

Edited by noodle doodle

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Having had a look for edinburgh semi's (cos that's what I live in innit)

Semi-detached median prices:

edinburgh jan-mar 2010 jan-mar 2011 %inc oct-dec 2010 % inc

Edinburgh, City of 213,500 237,000 -9.9 225,000 -5.1

Semi-detached mean prices:

Edinburgh, City of 266,965 260,461 2.5 271,439 -1.6

So the mean price of a semi-detached house in edinburgh has risen since the same time last year but the median has dropped by a packet. And the higher mean values have moved around in a tighter price range than the median values? Is that possible?

Really it all depends what stat you pick for your particular wish.

having thought about it, that means the majority of semis have fallen in price for the median to drop, but the top end of the semi market must have rocketed to keep the mean as a more stable number than the median. Weird.

Extremely low sales figures. Any stats will appear going either way. Difficult to tell what is really going on.

In a nutshell - not much really. Very little is happening.

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Extremely low sales figures. Any stats will appear going either way. Difficult to tell what is really going on.

In a nutshell - not much really. Very little is happening.

Next stage, prices must drop to affordable levels, or else sellers just get to keep their house and/or their debt? Low debt sellers who MUST move will lead the charge down?

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I used to get very depressed last year right up until about Feb of this year looking at all the SSTC boards. I used to get fed up listening to the EAs gloat that they had sold 'it'.

Now I just go in to EAs and gloat asking "How many times have you sold it this year?"... What I have concluded is that there are loads of people out there - not sure whether they are just deluded or whether they are HPCers - putting in full asking price offers on stuff even though they do not have the funds to buy.

I am convinced loads still do not have any idea that the banks are now writing down EA asking prices enormously.

Have you wondered how many of these full asking price offers were made up by the EAs to create an illusion of scarcity ...

Edited by _w_

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Have you wondered how many of these full asking price offers were made up by the EAs to create an illusion of scarcity ...

The way some go off the maker then come back on I recon 2 3rds are estate agents making the market look more fluid than it is.

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  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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