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London Up And Up?!

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Are there any parts of London where prices are really falling:? A colleague is looking in despair at Archway, houses up from around 800k to 950k in the last 12 months he sighs! I was looking around E8 but there's very little of interest that's under 450k! N4 is insane, N7 has still very expensive. N8 is just impossible.

What's the on Forest Hill environs ? I need to find an area with BAD schools 'cause I aint got no kids. Any suggestions ?

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Unfortunately it looks like anything in the price range of £350k - £700k (and more?) is in hot demand at the moment, regardless of where in London. A combination of the existing middle-class home owners having cheap mortgages and jobs, and other middle-class professionals who have saved up over the past 3 years wading in to secure cheap fixed rates.

But if you look at areas such as East London, especially around the Excel area, prices are still very low for new-build apartments. The area is crap, only convenient for Canary Wharf, and too many identical apartments means lots of supply available. But that's only if you find them attractive - and they're not to the majority of people in London.

Even bad schools are now in demand. A huge shortage in primary school places this and last year means most schools are oversubscribed. You should try to find a property this summer that is just outside the extremely tight catchment area of a good school for this year. And a few years later, when this squeeze on places relaxes, your property should then be hopefully in the enlarged catchment area, allowing you to make a bit of profit.

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Both n1 and nw3 both falling in the last year as per rightmove. I would be very surprised if archway is really up by 20% as you suggest. Lots of stock not moving at all in many parts of London. Just get access to property bee or check out property snake

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Both n1 and nw3 both falling in the last year as per rightmove. I would be very surprised if archway is really up by 20% as you suggest. Lots of stock not moving at all in many parts of London. Just get access to property bee or check out property snake

I agree that lots of stock are piling up on EA's books, many of them overpriced. But those tend to be the B grade stock - with a major flaw. Like lower-ground, or extremely tiny bedrooms, or some other problem. The A grade stock, usually a good road and no major flaws, are flying off the EA's windows at ever record-high prices.

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I agree that lots of stock are piling up on EA's books, many of them overpriced. But those tend to be the B grade stock - with a major flaw. Like lower-ground, or extremely tiny bedrooms, or some other problem. The A grade stock, usually a good road and no major flaws, are flying off the EA's windows at ever record-high prices.

Definitely agree sarf of the river ... Good stuff is going under offer & being bought at max 3-4pc off asking price. (and often at asking - we were told not to even bother offering less than asking on 2 we saw, one which then sold & one which hasn't yet). And the not so good stuff just sits there month after month.

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As far as I can tell, anything under 350K is not shifting in my part of the world. A look at properties on RM with propertybee in the last 14 days in se24 shows that flats are suffering.

Houses, on the other hand, seem hardly troubled at all. It's all cash buyers who believe they can't get returns in the bank.

I've said many many times before on here, the BoE low interest rate sucker punch is a work of genius: get rich people to buy housing assets and shore up banks' balance sheets, and raise interest rates later. It's the rich and ignorant what will suffer in the next few years, mark my words.

I'd be interested to know if real insiders are buying expensive property in London.

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What's the on Forest Hill environs ? I need to find an area with BAD schools 'cause I aint got no kids. Any suggestions ?

I have two options I think.

1) Buy a flat in E8 / Haggerston / London Fields / Dalston

2) Get a house around honor oak park, forest hill area.

Everything is still on the up from what I can see though, certainly not dropping much.

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In areas that interest me (i.e. those where I could realistically afford a home of sufficient size to raise a family) things are currently pretty stagnant, and have been for a couple of years. The good stuff, realistically priced, sells quickly.

These are pretty modest areas, but fundamentally decent (i.e. traditionally respectable working class, not ex-LA, in the ghetto etc).

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I have two options I think.

1) Buy a flat in E8 / Haggerston / London Fields / Dalston

2) Get a house around honor oak park, forest hill area.

Everything is still on the up from what I can see though, certainly not dropping much.

Two totally different areas.

Dalston is Urban & Gritty, aka Trendy for the under 30's

Forest Hill/Honor Oak Park is more of a Suburban family area.

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I agree that lots of stock are piling up on EA's books, many of them overpriced. But those tend to be the B grade stock - with a major flaw. Like lower-ground, or extremely tiny bedrooms, or some other problem. The A grade stock, usually a good road and no major flaws, are flying off the EA's windows at ever record-high prices.

This is what I've seen in West London. B grade stock (far from amenities, near a cemetery, etc.) are plummeting in price but A grade stock (near amenities, good catchment) are all going under offer in 1-2 weeks and often at or over list price (mostly £750k-1.2mil price range for a 3-4BR terrace). We moved from our 3BR flat to a 3BR terrace in March 2011 with an offer accepted last October 2010. Since then many houses in slightly inferior locations (smaller and don't have the school catchment) have sold for £25k under to £25k over what we paid. I think buyers are just getting fussier or very particular. If a property checks most of the desired boxes then there will me multiple interested parties which only serves to push the price up unfortunately. More prevalent in London than any other part of the UK though.

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This is what I've seen in West London. B grade stock (far from amenities, near a cemetery, etc.) are plummeting in price but A grade stock (near amenities, good catchment) are all going under offer in 1-2 weeks and often at or over list price (mostly £750k-1.2mil price range for a 3-4BR terrace). We moved from our 3BR flat to a 3BR terrace in March 2011 with an offer accepted last October 2010. Since then many houses in slightly inferior locations (smaller and don't have the school catchment) have sold for £25k under to £25k over what we paid. I think buyers are just getting fussier or very particular. If a property checks most of the desired boxes then there will me multiple interested parties which only serves to push the price up unfortunately. More prevalent in London than any other part of the UK though.

It is very odd that one segment of the market (Grade A) is extremely robust, while another segment (Grade B) is just languishing. One reason I can see is that "aspirational" homeowners, those with little deposit who in the past managed to get 10% LTV to just about afford a Grade B property are now shut out of the market. Whereas more affluent aspiring homeowning, those with Double Income No Kids, or £100k+ combined salaries, and substantial deposits from relatives/inheritance/etc are picky and therefore only considering Grade A properties, and therefore there's a feeding frenzy as they bid against one another.

Current Grade A homeowners see less pressure to sell as well. More likely to be private sector employed, bigger deposits (hence easier to get a cheap remortgage deal), and because Grade A properties are generally bigger, able to squeeze the family in it for a bit longer before having to sell to move to a bigger place. Hence the shortage in supply.

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Two totally different areas.

Dalston is Urban & Gritty, aka Trendy for the under 30's

Forest Hill/Honor Oak Park is more of a Suburban family area.

By 'Urban & Gritty', don't you mean 'Crap'?

Edited by SHERWICK

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I live just down from the Archway area (in the little triangle formed by Holloway Road, Tufnell Park Road and Junction Road) and prices don't seem to have dropped at all. Sure, there was a house on my road which was put on at £1.2m and is now £900k ish but it was an absolute dump and was way overpriced. Despite what some on HPC might think, there just seem to be parts of London which are currently unaffected by all the goings on.

I think a key think to consider is tha LHA capping which has(?) is (?) coming in and will limit how much those BTL bastards are renting out their places to council tenants for. The thing is that its impossible to guess what the implications will be. I know for certain that there are loads of council tenants in my area (living in £500k to £1.5m properties <_< ) but not sure who owns them.

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By 'Urban & Gritty', don't you mean 'Crap'?

Yeah, it's one of those areas that have come up so to speak...but the prices to buy a place thereare now out of reality with what the place actually offers. There's a few places like it in London, Brixton to an extent is overpriced....Peckham Rye, Camberwell...I could go on & on.

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I think a key think to consider is tha LHA capping which has(?) is (?) coming in and will limit how much those BTL bastards are renting out their places to council tenants for. The thing is that its impossible to guess what the implications will be. I know for certain that there are loads of council tenants in my area (living in £500k to £1.5m properties <_< ) but not sure who owns them.

Yes, I'm waiting for that affect too. All the areas I have been looking at to purchase has rents above the LHA cap - so naturally one expects that as those rental demand dries up, rents drop, and property values drop too. Could be quite a slow process though unfortunately.... and BTL homes are usually Grade B (as renters are less fussy than homeowners).

Fundamentally, at least in London, there is just isn't enough housing overall, so there's always going to be huge demand, whether home owning or renting - which is keep prices up high. Its the classic supply and demand. Even if mortgages are scarce, professional investors will swoop in to BTL, as yields will be high due to lack of homes. The government really just needs to get over NIMBYISM and build many more new homes.

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Yes, I'm waiting for that affect too. All the areas I have been looking at to purchase has rents above the LHA cap - so naturally one expects that as those rental demand dries up, rents drop, and property values drop too. Could be quite a slow process though unfortunately.... and BTL homes are usually Grade B (as renters are less fussy than homeowners).

Fundamentally, at least in London, there is just isn't enough housing overall, so there's always going to be huge demand, whether home owning or renting - which is keep prices up high. Its the classic supply and demand. Even if mortgages are scarce, professional investors will swoop in to BTL, as yields will be high due to lack of homes. The government really just needs to get over NIMBYISM and build many more new homes.

Agreed, but I think the issue in London (and I specifically mean Zones 1&2 and parts of 3 certainly in North London) is that there simply is no space to build more properties and by that I mean 3/4/5 bed houses, not a vile block of 1/2 bed flats on the site of an old petrol station.

Where I am in N19, its all Victorian properties and some Georgian and that is what most people want. First time buyers may be happy to pick up a 1/2 bed new build or period conversion, but people like me are looking to move into a larger place and there is quite simply a chronic lack of supply (hence values being where they are at present).

I know for a fact that there are plenty of people living in these 3/4/5 bed places on LHA. It certainly will be interesting to see if they are still there in 12 months time.

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Some people like squalor and a short trip to work.

Oh yes, the Nathan Barley types love slumming it in 'The Hood'.

They are so 'Ghetto Fabulous Dahling'

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This is what I've seen in West London. B grade stock (far from amenities, near a cemetery, etc.) are plummeting in price but A grade stock (near amenities, good catchment) are all going under offer in 1-2 weeks and often at or over list price (mostly £750k-1.2mil price range for a 3-4BR terrace).

Same in east London. Sure there are some good properties that are grossly overpriced and don't shift, but generally a 3/4 bed in a nice area, near the underground, the high street and the forest, especially if in the catchment of a good school, will sell more or less at asking price. If you don't sell within a month, it's probably a sign your house just isn't up to scratch. The stuff that stays are those without a good school, backing onto railway lines, on a busy road, or even just been on the wrong side of the railway tracks. Last year, we didn't consider a perfectly good house because it was on the wrong side of the road for a school catchment area.

I suspect these buyers are all in a similar position to me. Next to no mortgage on current property, and a near zero-sum game as we are selling from one desirable area to move into another. Only the first time buyers at the bottom of the chain which are often DINKys with big bonuses/commissions have any real expenditure.

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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