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PulpFiction

Very Confused

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I'm very confused. All of a sudden there seem to be a lot of long time HPC'ers who are starting to buy houses. How can this be ? Surely if you've been bearish for so long, and have no doubt been boring the pants off your friends for the last 2 years that there'll be a house price crash, then to buy now would be utter madness.

Have you not noticed what's happening around you. Houses aren't selling very well. Sellers are having to take below asking price. The economy is starting to wobble more than a jelly on a rollercoaster (just look at the news blog every day). This is what you've been waiting for. The peak. The start of the decline. So why buy now, it makes no sense!

Check your previous posts. Have you previously mocked those who didn't believe prices would come down. Re-read your posts, they now apply to you.

Think of the conversation in the pub in 6 months time when your friends berate you for buying because finally they can see that house prices are falling, yet you bought after harping on for so long about what was coming. Do you REALLY want negative equity that badly ?

Oh, and one final thing whilst I'm on my rant: Is there any way that this forum can get back on track and people can start posting more about the housing market, so that when the common herd start searching google because they've read in The Sun that house prices are unstable, and they find HPC, they can read a forum that's informative about the current state of the housing market, and perhaps make an informed decision based upon it.

Rant over:thanks

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Yes, it is odd but in fairness to all these folks they've had their reasons.

Monkey and RightSaidFred have both rented in sh*teholes and saved a lot by doing so. They have looked at renting in a nicer area and decided that the costs are too similar to buying.

Some need to house pets. Some have waited for years already. I have a lot of sympathy with those who have been waiting since 2001.

If you believed everyone who disagreed with buying here you would never buy. It's a bearish forum so there will always be a majority here who will say "wait".

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You have to put it all into perspective for the individual concerned.

I consider myself a perma-bear but I have to confess that it is becoming hard to listen to myself. That is not to say that I don't believe that there will be a crash - I am more convinced than ever. The problem is that is only in the last few years that I have been able to afford to buy a property but the prices have leapt out of sight. Before that, I didn't have the appetite or stability to do it.

Now, with a little kid (<3 months old), we will need space and I would love to be able to build a train sete for him that won't need ripping up every 6 months as would need to happen in a rental property. There just comes a time that the social needs outweigh the financial sensibility of it all.

I reckon that if I bought a property now, I would likely lose about £100,000 - on a property in West London (circa £500k). With a sizable deposit, I still won't be in negative equity despite a reasonable drop (20% on top of the current drops). £100k is a lot of money, but hey! I guess we can work bleeding hard and re-save it all!

B):blink:

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Now, with a little kid (<3 months old), we will need space and I would love to be able to build a train sete for him that won't need ripping up every 6 months as would need to happen in a rental property. There just comes a time that the social needs outweigh the financial sensibility of it all.

You don't *have* to move every six months just because you're renting.

What is the social need of owning? People in Europe seem to manage fine renting.

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Everything comes down to personal circumstance, so I'll put this to you:

- Assume you have young kids and would like to get settled

- Assume you have a deposit saved up that's just waiting to be unleashed

- Now assume that you make a 'silly' -20% offer and get it accepted....

Do you go ahead? Even if you think there will be a crash you might conclude that -20% is already a fair way down that slope. If there's no crash you're quids in. Furthermore, you might be better off locking in a mortgage at today's rates. The banks will lend you more at the moment too.

What would you do in this situation?

...

I'm not in that situation so I'm happy to rent.

Edit: The above does assume a social need for owning... but that's the society we live in. /shrug

Edited by Nijo

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Everything comes down to personal circumstance, so I'll put this to you:

- Assume you have young kids and would like to get settled

rent in the area you intend to buy in.

- Assume you have a deposit saved up that's just waiting to be unleashed

its called self discipline, and financial sense.

- Now assume that you make a 'silly' -20% offer and get it accepted....

assuming that 20% is the market norm then assume there is more to follow [never catch a falling knife]

Nar to be honest in the end you do what most blokes do....and thats what the Wife tells ya. :rolleyes:

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You don't *have* to move every six months just because you're renting.

What is the social need of owning? People in Europe seem to manage fine renting.

Very true - I've rented the same place for 6 years now with no rent increases. I'm moving to another rental in the next couple of months - going up the rental market slightly for a better standard of accommodation. Still plenty of opportunity to save and wait for the time to buy that is right for me.

For the people who have bought recently, the time is right for them for whatever reasons they have. I wish them well in their new homes.

As for the original question, the time to buy is when you decide that it's time to buy for you, no matter what anyone else says.

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Generally the reasons given are fair I'd say - just as we can't all base our decision to SELL a house purely on the best market timing/financial benefit to ourselves we can't expect everyone (even HPCers) to do so when buying. I am sure their time here will have been of use one way or the other. At least they are aware of the wider economic and financial circumstances relating to their decision.

If one was cynical of course one could say that it represents a capitulation of the bears signalling the real downturn in prices...

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its a combination of personal circumstances.

lack of stable rental accomodation and mortgage cost versus rental.

i would rent if i could get a three bed council house

-but there mostly sold. all occupied.

i would rent if i could get a long term lease

-6 months plus hassle and rises and landlord visits. lost deposits.

i would rent if i could keep my dog.

no pets no smokers no irish - need i say more about life control ?

i would rent if i could get a nice house

-the rentals that SAVE you money are damp, badly decorated and full of CCJ blips and above shops ect.

granted you could rent a nice semi - but how much more to buy it ? not much more.

dont let my choice upset your plans. you are right to wait. it will cost me money and lots of it doing what i do now, but the type of life i need to now lead is simply not compatable with renting for all the reasons above.

though i wont forget how gordon brown, VIs and banks robbed me of 40k+

dont let them rob you - wait if you can manage it.

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I'm in a position where I'm staying with family but soon to rent. We have a young child and it is becoming increasingly hard to live where we are. Our plan is to wait as long as we can either with family or renting and save as hard as we can. In the mean time we are prepared to buy at the right price and have indeed continued to look. What has changed with us recently though is that the property has to be absolutely the right one at a price we deem fair. We have lost houses in the past but have been happy to do so because we will not pay stupid money for them.

We know prices will come down eventually and accept that we are likely to buy before the trough. We will therefore lose some money but this is acceptable to a certain degree. However, I know that I am not The Greater Fool and if we do find a place soon then we will not be offering anywhere near the current prices. If they accept then great. If not then it's simply because that property was too expensive for us. I no longer take too much notice of asking prices and will make my own mind up on the value of a house.

Ideally I wouldn't buy for a few years, regardless of what property came up. But that may not be entirely practical.

One thing can be said for the people who have decided to buy - they do at least have a full knowledge of the market and have made a rational decision to buy for their own reasons. This is very different to the blind masses who are paying asking prices simply because an EA and vendor decide to "value" it that way.

Regarding improving the forum - I suggest we need to have an economics forum too and have the moderators be a little stricter in moving off-topic posts.

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I am buying too!

I sold in April at 4.5% off asking price. I was lucky.

Now is the time for me, managed to get a good discount 30% off asking. I am comfortable with it knowing the inevitable aorund the next 2-3 yrs.

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This response is to pulp fiction's OP.

The house I am buying was on at just under 90k. I negotiated down to 70k.

I pay rent for a shite hole (and had another shite hole prior to that) from which I find it very difficult to work. Or even get my clothes washed come to the matter.

I am losing say 1,500k per month in lost income. I have already lost nearly 2 years worth.

At which point does buying my property become financially sensible?

How long and how much does it have to fall before it becomes sensible?

Cos for me I think it's now

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Everything comes down to personal circumstance, so I'll put this to you:

- Assume you have young kids and would like to get settled. We have children and are reasonably settled- Assume you have a deposit saved up that's just waiting to be unleashed. We have- Now assume that you make a 'silly' -20% offer and get it accepted....We haven't but even if we did..........................

Do you go ahead? Even if you think there will be a crash you might conclude that -20% is already a fair way down that slope. If there's no crash you're quids in. Furthermore, you might be better off locking in a mortgage at today's rates. The banks will lend you more at the moment too.

What would you do in this situation? What we do now....Rent

...

I'm not in that situation so I'm happy to rent.

Edit: The above does assume a social need for owning... but that's the society we live in. /shrug

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Am I the only one here that believes we NEED people to buy - As long as the put in offers 10-40% UNDER the asking price. Surely everyone putting in LOW LOW offers will force the sellers/EA's to push prices down? Or am I just pissin' in the wind?

Edited by teddyboy

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Dont worry guys, ill keep the balance, im going to live with my mum in this council house until im 40.

Good on ya Chuz we knew we could rely on a true HPC trooper like yourself. By the way, your decision has nowt to do with your Mums 10 squid a week rent? :unsure:

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Guest muttley
Am I the only one here that believes we NEED people to buy - As long as the put in offers 10-40% UNDER the asking price. Surely everyone putting in LOW LOW offers will force the sellers/EA's to push prices down? Or am I just pissin' in the wind?

I agree,we need people to buy.Preferably they will put in silly offers and chase the market down.

What we don't need is bears turning into bulls. :(

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Am I the only one here that believes we NEED people to buy - As long as the put in offers 10-40% UNDER the asking price. Surely everyone putting in LOW LOW offers will force the sellers/EA's to push prices down? Or am I just pissin' in the wind?

Yea we need folks to chase the market down.

Good on ya Chuz we knew we could rely on a true HPC trooper like yourself. By the way, your decision has nowt to do with your Mums 10 squid a week rent? :unsure:

Just for the record its £160 a month :lol: but yea, principle is about the same - ive got no 'other half' no kids , im a loner and probably always will be... im just gonna keep ferreting away my money then when i die it will pay off someone to burn down a few cats homes (its all about balance).

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Nar to be honest in the end you do what most blokes do....and thats what the Wife tells ya. :rolleyes:

Actually that's a good point. :)

I know that some families are happy as they are (see post by Buffer Bear), but I can also understand that some would prefer to take the socially 'normal' route of nesting in their OO house. Just a difference of requirements, not something to criticise.

Anyway, I'm living in a 1-bed rented flat, so I'm talking out my ****.

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I'm mildly shocked to read this, but having read various threads I can see why you've made this decision, Fred. I'm still gonna sit it out a bit longer. I'm used to long-term renting at the moment because until recently my life was never stable enough for me to buy. Things became stable and the prices went silly, making a mockery of my plans...and now the economy appears to be getting very shaky. So I'll wait a bit longer. I do realise though, that waiting for ages and ages might sooner or later get frustrating - it's not something I'd previously considered. Using your post as a sort of checklist:

its a combination of personal circumstances.

lack of stable rental accomodation and mortgage cost versus rental.

I know what you mean...I went through a period of three years a while back where I had to move every six months. I could have bought back then, but began to realise how unhappy my job then was making me, so I ended up getting a better job in a different part of the country.

i would rent if i could get a three bed council house

-but there mostly sold. all occupied.

Not had any major problems renting decent places here, so far.

i would rent if i could get a long term lease

-6 months plus hassle and rises and landlord visits. lost deposits.

I'm happy with 6 months as a starter. Sometimes it goes beyond 6 months (almost 3 years at one place), sometimes it doesn't. If the house/flat turns out badly, at least it's only for 6 months. If you have to move...well, it's not been that big a deal for me so far. I suspect my recent experiences with an abusive nutcase nuisance neighbour have made me happier than normal with the 6 month setup.

i would rent if i could keep my dog.

no pets no smokers no irish - need i say more about life control ?

That must be exasperating for you. Fortunately I have no pets, nor do I smoke. I think some landlords have absurdly high standards regarding the people who they deign to rent their places to. Some of them could definitely do with some attitude adjustments. It is gradually getting more and more annoying having to put up with other people's decorating and not being able to modify the house in any way, I must confess.

i would rent if i could get a nice house

-the rentals that SAVE you money are damp, badly decorated and full of CCJ blips and above shops ect.

granted you could rent a nice semi - but how much more to buy it ? not much more.

I've been fortunate in being able to rent reasonable places and they *still* save money on buying, which in my opinion is rediculous. These places really really shouldn't be so expensive.

dont let my choice upset your plans. you are right to wait. it will cost me money and lots of it doing what i do now, but the type of life i need to now lead is simply not compatable with renting for all the reasons above.

though i wont forget how gordon brown, VIs and banks robbed me of 40k+

dont let them rob you - wait if you can manage it.

In the end we all have to make the best decisions for ourselves. It sounds like you've made the best decision for you and it does tempt me to consider looking again - it's been about a year since my first foray into the realm of the estate agent. However I firmly believe there is indeed a financial storm gathering and that things are going to go downhill for at least a year, so I'm being quite cautious. If the economy looked more stable I would possibly have already taken the plunge...but I didn't like the look of things a year ago, and I like them even less now.

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Guest magnoliawalls

If I was an STR with a serious amount of savings I might buy

1. for the stability and control

2. becuse it would ensure that our savings were going towards something tangible

3. so we could keep a dog

4. so we had a secure base to start a family

5. to make the temptation to blow our savings on an extended trip to South America easier to resist (we have already done this in other parts of the world)

6. so that if the government succeeds in inflating away debts we would have something to show for our hard work

As FTBs the risk of being trapped by negative equity is too great and we have less to worry about from inflation. I don't actually expect inflation again but it is a possibility and not everyone is confident enough to use other forms of investment to hedge against that risk.

Edited by magnoliawalls

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I don't actually expect inflation again but it is a possibility and not everyone is confident enough to use other forms of investment to hedge against that risk.

I find this hard to believe. How much "confidence" is required to walk down to the local Post Office and deposit your capital in an NS&I index-linked gilts-based savings certificate? A good deal less than is required to bid on a house, have survey done, spend months and months in a chain, possibly being gazumped, I would have thought. No-one is that gormless surely? :unsure:

http://www.nsandi.com/products/ilsc/howitworks.jsp

Edited by IPOD

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Guest magnoliawalls
I find this hard to believe. How much "confidence" is required to walk down to the local Post Office and deposit your capital in an NS&I index-linked gilts-based savings certificate? A good deal less than is required to bid on a house, have survey done, spend months and months in a chain, possibly being gazumped, I would have thought. No-one is that gormless surely? :unsure:

http://www.nsandi.com/products/ilsc/howitworks.jsp

I was not speaking for myself up there. I think you over estimate the financial understanding of average Joe. Because people in the circle you move in are aware that they have the option of depositing capital in "an NS&I index-linked gilts-based savings certificate" does not mean that most people do. After the dot com bust people are also wary of investing their money in things they dont understand - if you did a survey in a shopping centre, how many people would understand what "gilts - based" or "index - linked" mean?

A couple of years ago, after living abroad and without doing any research we thought it would be a good idea to buy a house. Friends and family advised that we buy as expensive a property as we could manage. Plenty of otherwise intelligent people sincerely believe that buying a house is always a good idea.

Other people who frequent this site had similar anecdotes. For many people buying a house is not only the biggest investment they will ever make it is the only financial investment they will ever actively make!

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I think that if it smells like poo and it looks l*ke poo then most likely that is what it is. Reviving an old but noble string, What the papers said before the last crash:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...before+the+last

EDIT: have to say, not sure why all of the 'the's are highlighted?

Edited by Elizabeth

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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