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Uk House Prices -3.3% Yoy, Flat Mom: Hometrack

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Oh no, the spring bounce, where is it? I raised my asking price 35% just to catch me a juicy specimen of this seasonal bovine migration event. What am I going to do?

http://www.forexlive.com/184108/all/uk-house-prices-3-3-yoy-hometrack

UK house prices -3.3% YoY: Hometrack

UK house prices were unchanged in April compared with March but that amounted to a fall of 3.3% over a 12 month period. Cable is a bit lower this morning but that is mainly as a result of the Silver sell-off leading to some USD short covering.

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Not only are these really bad figures for the boom period, this year has been the first for ages (4 or 5 years here) where people have actually tried to shift housing.

Here in the SW, spring sales activity has been muted. In fact sales activity has been muted since about 2005ish - prices got too high for FTB in 2002ish, then too high for BTL in 2006ish, then nothing has happened for about 3 years - literally 1 sale in my street in the last 18 months.

God knows what the EAs are doing for money? Rent boy-ing???

Now what is the drawback of a commissioned based sales job???

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Not only are these really bad figures for the boom period, this year has been the first for ages (4 or 5 years here) where people have actually tried to shift housing.

Here in the SW, spring sales activity has been muted. In fact sales activity has been muted since about 2005ish - prices got too high for FTB in 2002ish, then too high for BTL in 2006ish, then nothing has happened for about 3 years - literally 1 sale in my street in the last 18 months.

God knows what the EAs are doing for money? Rent boy-ing???

Now what is the drawback of a commissioned based sales job???

Yes, the "time on market" for Property Snake listing are awesome. There have been plenty of anecdotals about EAs pushing for reductions in order for sales to happen (one in East Anglia pushing trough 25% drops), and when even EAs are pushing for lower prices then you know the war is won.

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Great for sentiment...shame it won't really make the news versus Osama.

Also a shame that my area is still bucking the trend and is experiencing the bounciest of spring bounces. :angry:

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The latest flat-market conditions hide two different stories: rising prices in London and falls everywhere else. According to the survey, prices climbed 0.3 per cent London in April and slipped 0.3 per cent across all other regions. "The relative strength of the London market continues to put a gloss on the headline results," Mr Donnell said.

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"The second half of 2011 is likely to emerge as a new phase where rising supply will constrain any further improvement in pricing levels," he said. "Weaker consumer confidence could also result in a slowdown in demand which would exacerbate the pressure on prices."

Surely rising supply and weaker consumer confidence is likely to improve not constrain pricing levels?! Oh wait, I get it; he still wants prices to go up.

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anyone would think supply and demand of houses dictates prices in this market.

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The Hometrack website has only been updated with the headline number. The other data there is all still from the last release. Any one know when it's updated - can't imagine they're paying someone to do that on a Bank Holiday though.

Even without Osama's demise though, this report gets little coverage and I suspect a flat MoM figure is of minimal interest to all but us commenting on the (lack of a) Spring Bounce.

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I thought it did but in terms of credit?

Indeed, I concur.

there could be 2million houses on the market for the "average" price, but with few mortgages, people wont be buying them...until they come into a price range where credit is freely available.

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The Hometrack website has only been updated with the headline number. The other data there is all still from the last release. Any one know when it's updated - can't imagine they're paying someone to do that on a Bank Holiday though.

Even without Osama's demise though, this report gets little coverage and I suspect a flat MoM figure is of minimal interest to all but us commenting on the (lack of a) Spring Bounce.

It's normally between a few hours and a few days. It's been pretty quick the last few months though.

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Of course, MoM this is a fall in real terms. At the moment house prices need to increase 0.3-0.4% a month just to tread water against inflation.

In real terms, this YoY fall is approaching double digits. Bring it on!

EDIT TO ADD: 1,000th post :D

Edited by rantnrave

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Its a strange situation we are in, and i am trying to understand - and i hope someone on here can help me do that.

If inflation is running at say 4-4.5% and we are having a 2% decline in prices - thats obviously a real (taking into account of inflation) 6.5% fall in prices.... relatively to other products... however if wages aren't rising... which they arent.... that doesn't make homes more affordable... its not really a 6.5% drop... but rather the 2% decline that we see...

So shouldn't we see actual prices fall by say 30%-50% totally ignoring inflation because ultimately all that its doing is eroding our spare income rather than making houses more affordable...

IF that doesn't make sense, let me know and i will clarify but it is central to my thinking at the moment....

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If inflation is running at say 4-4.5% and we are having a 2% decline in prices - thats obviously a real (taking into account of inflation) 6.5% fall in prices.... relatively to other products... however if wages aren't rising... which they arent.... that doesn't make homes more affordable... its not really a 6.5% drop... but rather the 2% decline that we see...

So shouldn't we see actual prices fall by say 30%-50% totally ignoring inflation because ultimately all that its doing is eroding our spare income rather than making houses more affordable...

IF that doesn't make sense, let me know and i will clarify but it is central to my thinking at the moment....

Makes perfect sense to me; the added effect of non-housing inflation will just put more downward pressure on house prices in time.

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Its a strange situation we are in, and i am trying to understand - and i hope someone on here can help me do that.

If inflation is running at say 4-4.5% and we are having a 2% decline in prices - thats obviously a real (taking into account of inflation) 6.5% fall in prices.... relatively to other products... however if wages aren't rising... which they arent.... that doesn't make homes more affordable... its not really a 6.5% drop... but rather the 2% decline that we see...

So shouldn't we see actual prices fall by say 30%-50% totally ignoring inflation because ultimately all that its doing is eroding our spare income rather than making houses more affordable...

IF that doesn't make sense, let me know and i will clarify but it is central to my thinking at the moment....

Yep you need to take into account wage inflation which is currently around 2%.

Or if you have a STR fund/deposit then you can take the interest rate you are receiving into account to get a real fall. So if you are getting 3% in an ISA then that fund is gaining 6.3% in real terms according to this survey.

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Bloomberg managed to spin this into great news..

U.K. house prices stopped falling in April for the first time in 10 months as demand for homes picked up, Hometrack Ltd. said.

My link

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The ultimate HPC-Airplane clip is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYxvVe9y5NQ

(That being a member of the BoE committee upon deciding to start raising interest rates, c. this Autumn..!)

As for this 0% "move"... outside London it's -0.3% and that's all I care about, as I'm not into buying £750k pwoperties in central London!! :P

Edited by Mr Deflation

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  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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