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Guest_ringledman_*

When Will Uk Property Bottom Out?

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Personally I see a delayed crash due to the BoE shennanigans of negative interest rates and quantitative easing slowing the crash from occuring, certainly in nominal terms.

I see UK property around 30% overvalued and as property usually bottoms below historical value, a good 40-50% needs to come off.

I do not believe a crash can be avoided but that the power that be can certainly delay and slow down through interest rate intervention the crash. Hence I see a lot of prices dropping in real terms over the next 4 years or so.

Add in some nominal falls, but slowly and I believe we have 4-5 years to crash and bottom out by 2015 or perhaps 2016.

When will we bottom out in your eyes?

Edited by ringledman

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'The' baby boomer generation will be retiring and fully drawing from their pension (if they have one) or selling off assets to live, from now until 2025-ish.

North Sea oil will be a page in the history books in 30 years.

Argue as you wish, but the maths are simple.

uk_population_3.gif

ukfieldbyfield.jpg

Or maybe one of you can argue and alternate reason as to why Britain experienced such a bounty over the last few decades?

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I went for the 2020 option as i think theyll do whatever they can to draw this out for as long as they can.

I dont however think property will become affordable as it was lets say in 1996 by this time, or until affordable housing is likely to be a vote winner, and so long as housing benefit is as generous as it is that will be never.

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I went for the 2020 option as i think theyll do whatever they can to draw this out for as long as they can.

I dont however think property will become affordable as it was lets say in 1996 by this time, or until affordable housing is likely to be a vote winner, and so long as housing benefit is as generous as it is that will be never.

Look closely at LT N'wide real price chart. Convincingly broken LT trend line. Heading South. This is before rise in unemployment, int rates, repos; fall in public spending and as cost of living rises.

2nd leg down fully in progress.

3rd leg (at least in real terms) from 2015/16.

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Look closely at LT N'wide real price chart. Convincingly broken LT trend line. Heading South. This is before rise in unemployment, int rates, repos; fall in public spending and as cost of living rises.

2nd leg down fully in progress.

3rd leg (at least in real terms) from 2015/16.

Im in SE England and prices are at their peak now for an average 3 bed semi or detached house, like i said with Housing Benefit propping up the market and Nationwide and the banksters prefering to lend to Buy 2 letters things really are different for the time being.

Im thinking the upcoming LIBLAB coalition may do something about it though as itll be a greater section of the electorate priced out by then, more then likely just wishful thinking though.

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As it is traditional to reply to polls pointing out how the options are wrong ;)

I think it is wrong to conside bottoming out as a point, I'm expecting a long trough of 3 to 4 years in which they will bump along the bottom and any point within that will be the right time to buy providing you do a bit of research and negotiate hard on multiple properties to get a genuine bargain.

Also the real / nominal issue, but we would need a 3d poll to fit all of that in :P

I reckon trough 2014 - 2018 so have gone for 2016 as the mid point.

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As it is traditional to reply to polls pointing out how the options are wrong ;)

I think it is wrong to conside bottoming out as a point, I'm expecting a long trough of 3 to 4 years in which they will bump along the bottom and any point within that will be the right time to buy providing you do a bit of research and negotiate hard on multiple properties to get a genuine bargain.

Also the real / nominal issue, but we would need a 3d poll to fit all of that in :P

I reckon trough 2014 - 2018 so have gone for 2016 as the mid point.

I went for 2016 too, but I'm going to remain flexible.

If prices are still falling in 2016 I'll be happy to wait.

Perhaps I'll never buy another house, I'm certainly not going to jump in until I'm pretty certain that the market has bottomed.

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'The' baby boomer generation will be retiring and fully drawing from their pension (if they have one) or selling off assets to live, from now until 2025-ish.

.....

Argue as you wish, but the maths are simple.

uk_population_3.gif

The baby boom was largely a US phenomena and was much less pronounced in the UK. In any case bulge in the above graph is of people born between 1960 and 1980, or 30 - 50 year olds now. A large part of this cohort are currently locked out of the market because of HPI. When there are significant falls many of them may prop up the market as prices become more affordable.

Plus we've acquired several million new people via NuLab and the EU's open door immigration policies over the last 10 years - this will be a whole new, generally young and fast breeding, cohort to prop up demand. And immigration is still running at over 1 million per decade. We're not building enough houses to keep up with immigration and population growth right now, so the supply side isn't pushing a fall in the market.

I don't see a collapse in the housing market for the next 10 years e.g. a plunge of 50 or 60%, at least in nominal terms. But a slowish decay knocking 20-30% off, bottoming out between 2014-2018.

Gawd knows what'll happen after then, when the full consequences of the economic s**t storm become impossible to avoid - including a huge trade deficit in energy and whatever the effects of peak oil turn out to be.

That's my best guess.

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I put 2017, I think they can kick the can for a while yet.

I don't think we will get much growth in the economy, the real squeeze will come during the 2nd year onwards of cuts, the first cuts are easy to achieve without having much adverse affect on the economy. In fact the first cuts may help as people get nice fat early retirement packages.

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2014 for me, from what I'm seeing now, it's started, nearly all the properties that are coming on in my price bracket in Wiltshire are falling from their previous listings, I really think the sheep have awoken.

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I think it will be sooner than you think the main thing thats keeping prices high is interest rates as soon as they go up the prices will fall big time.

+1

Its weekend at Bernies take away the suport and the corpse drops.

Weekend%20at%20Bernies.jpg

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There should have been 2 questions - nominal and real bottoms.

I refer to the only one that counts - real price's bottoming.

I view nominal prices as pretty much irrelevant. I guess if you have a mortgage on the property then nominal price rises can help even if the real price is falling, if only to reduce the LTV.

And yes agree Frank Hovis, once prices bottom a good 3-4 year range bound bottoming process where one won't need to be rushed into buying as soon as prices bottom.

So around 2014/15 for the low and then 3-4 years after before prices rise in real terms.

Does anyone have a yield percentage in mind to mark the bottom? I guess it varies depending on property type.

I'm thinking 9-12% will mark the low for a 4 bed house? Seem reasonable???

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I suspect a real low in around 2014 as the last remaining support of low interest rates is removed and the bubble collapses.

After that then probably another 20 or 30 years of below long term average pricing as demographic and economic factors take hold.

Edited by Goat

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I see two phases (not necessarily distinct):

First one for maybe 2 years (which we are just into now) based on low lending, negative sentiment (particularly outside the m25) and erosion of disposable income.

Second (over a longer period and possibly more destructive) when rate rises kick in and defaults rise, driven by lenders panicking and wanting to be first out. And By then, I believe the London bubble will have popped, compounding the effect.

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The UK property VIs in government are just playing a waiting game. They know if they can just hang on a bit longer (low interest rates, hold off repossessions), eventually, there will be global boom again.

This rising tide will lift all boats.

My forecast:

I think the bottom will be in 2015, and the national average houseprice will drift to as low as £120,000.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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