Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
bpw

Europe Wins The Massive Indian Contract For Combat Aircraft

Recommended Posts

Great news for the European economy yesterday. The Indian government has indicated that Rafale and Eurofighter are the only contenders for the 128 fighter contract.

Estimates put the value at $50bln, but those figures will rise, and I would take a bet you'll see the Indians build several hundred under License. One estimate is 300 air-superiority and ground-attack planes. There is also an option on the table for a navalized version of Eurofighter. My bet is on Eurofighter which has quietly impressed people that know. WIth the cost of a Raptor at a mind-bending $350mln per place, and given all the problems with the Lockheed Marting Lightning (see one of my earlier posts) its clear this is a HUGE opportunity for the EU that will create thousands of jobs. I just hope we get organized and form a joint EADS and Dassault consortium which will propel european aerospace into new markets.

Now the interesting part is the messaging from the bullies in Washington. This really is a huge fright for the US aerospace industry which continually crows about its superiority. I am expecting lobbyists in Washington to start a dirty tricks campaign against India and Europe in the hope they can corrupt the evaluation process in the same way they did when Airbus won the air refuelling tanker contract. If they do, it's time to take action against the US thought the world courts and we face a trade war.

This will be a defining moment in this years economic landscape. Mark my words.

Edited by bpw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess the "airshow" live fire demonstration on Libya clinched it! money well spent!

Does it mean the US now has to find some country with at least a "nominal" air defence capability to bomb in order to flog F16s and F/A18Es?? :o

Edited by hayder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some good perspectives here in the Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/8482276/Eurofighter-leads-in-Indian-bid-war.html

And note the comments here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/8294324/Boeing-found-to-receive-US-government-subsidies.html

I guess the "airshow" live fire demonstration on Libya clinched it! money well spent!

Does it mean the US now has to find some country with at least a "nominal" air defence capability to bomb in order to flog F16s and F/A18Es?? :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yanks could come back with a better deal.

I think a resumption of attacks by Kashmiri separatists might help the Indians change their mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you believe that, then you also believe the USA is bullying its international partners, and is guilty of unfair competition. The award was made on technical merit alone. As for what Dassault or EADS sell their planes for thats for them and their accountants to decide. Remember the deal is for india to build most their aircraft in India.

This order has truly changed the future prospects for EADS or Dassault. Get ready for Japan and several other countries to follow suit and by Non-American.

I think a resumption of attacks by Kashmiri separatists might help the Indians change their mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you believe that, then you also believe the USA is bullying its international partners, and is guilty of unfair competition. The award was made on technical merit alone. As for what Dassault or EADS sell their planes for thats for them and their accountants to decide. Remember the deal is for india to build most their aircraft in India.

This order has truly changed the future prospects for EADS or Dassault. Get ready for Japan and several other countries to follow suit and by Non-American.

additionally, unofficially, can there be genuine doubts about the USA's economic ability to deliver - their credit rating is looking questionable, and the govt is not looking like dealing with this any time soon, India have a right to be concerned who they will be making downpayments to of presumably billions of dollars; if the US$ depreciates sufficiently, US companies could renege on the contract leaving India as a foreign creditor? In the meantime, India misses out on updating its air defence - a real concern given their neoghbours.

Edited by Si1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great news for the European economy yesterday. The Indian government has indicated that Rafale and Eurofighter are the only contenders for the 128 fighter contract.

Estimates put the value at $50bln, but those figures will rise, and I would take a bet you'll see the Indians build several hundred under License. One estimate is 300 air-superiority and ground-attack planes. There is also an option on the table for a navalized version of Eurofighter. My bet is on Eurofighter which has quietly impressed people that know. WIth the cost of a Raptor at a mind-bending $350mln per place, and given all the problems with the Lockheed Marting Lightning (see one of my earlier posts) its clear this is a HUGE opportunity for the EU that will create thousands of jobs. I just hope we get organized and form a joint EADS and Dassault consortium which will propel european aerospace into new markets.

Now the interesting part is the messaging from the bullies in Washington. This really is a huge fright for the US aerospace industry which continually crows about its superiority. I am expecting lobbyists in Washington to start a dirty tricks campaign against India and Europe in the hope they can corrupt the evaluation process in the same way they did when Airbus won the air refuelling tanker contract. If they do, it's time to take action against the US thought the world courts and we face a trade war.

This will be a defining moment in this years economic landscape. Mark my words.

Do you really want to wear that statement around your neck?

Good pilots are expensive, fickle, and very fallible.

Autonomy in military aviation and orbital missile delivery is the future, not some crew cut caffeine junkie behind the wheel of a fancy flying bomb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you believe that, then you also believe the USA is bullying its international partners, and is guilty of unfair competition. The award was made on technical merit alone. As for what Dassault or EADS sell their planes for thats for them and their accountants to decide. Remember the deal is for india to build most their aircraft in India.

This order has truly changed the future prospects for EADS or Dassault. Get ready for Japan and several other countries to follow suit and by Non-American.

Well you are certainly more excited about this than I am.

Between the 0.25% of one year's EU GDP this represents, the fact that we are selling people things they can blow themselves up with, and the idea of giving away precious high-tech civilian and military know-how to a competitor for the sake of a couple of years' profits, I don't find much to be excited about.

Perhaps if I was an EADS or Dassault exec I would be jubilantly salivating over next quarter's bonus. But apart from those people I don't see who benefits in Europe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well you are certainly more excited about this than I am.

Between the 0.25% of one year's EU GDP this represents, the fact that we are selling people things they can blow themselves up with, and the idea of giving away precious high-tech civilian and military know-how to a competitor for the sake of a couple of years' profits, I don't find much to be excited about.

Perhaps if I was an EADS or Dassault exec I would be jubilantly salivating over next quarter's bonus. But apart from those people I don't see who benefits in Europe.

Well, there is a tradition of selling slightly downgraded versions of you latest aircraft to the buyers. The exports Mirage 5 was a downgraded version of the home market Mirage 3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, there is a tradition of selling slightly downgraded versions of you latest aircraft to the buyers. The exports Mirage 5 was a downgraded version of the home market Mirage 3.

I remember the French selling a slightly downgraded version of their TGV to the South Koreans a while back.

They sold one.

The Koreans, happy owners of the technology, built the rest.

And then started competing with French companies for TGV's abroad.

I could carry on endlessly.

Those quarterly bonuses carry a very heavy price I assure you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is what foreign aid is all about

pocket money for the politicos to be syphoned at will , for a bit of scratch me , scratch you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember the French selling a slightly downgraded version of their TGV to the South Koreans a while back.

They sold one.

The Koreans, happy owners of the technology, built the rest.

And then started competing with French companies for TGV's abroad.

I could carry on endlessly.

Those quarterly bonuses carry a very heavy price I assure you.

No they sold 46 of them, 12 to be built in France and 35 to be built under licence. Many of the parts were still made in France to service them.

It took 16 years for them to make the KTX version 2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No they sold 46 of them, 12 to be built in France and 35 to be built under licence. Many of the parts were still made in France to service them.

It took 16 years for them to make the KTX version 2.

You're catching me short on details here. First they didn't sell one train (!) as I wrote, they sold one _phase_, that is 12 of 46 trains (24%) that were all delivered by 2000, 4 years after the contract was awarded. The rest was produced in Korea under licence which was good for the bottom line but obviously pretty bad for jobs in France. Those jobs were never to come back as Korea declared in 1996 (two years into the contract) that it was going to use the know how it had acquired from Alstom to do things in house: Alstom was not going to participate in the expansion of the high speed rail network in Korea.

Today, Korean companies compete with Alsthom for high speed rail contracts abroad.

I'm sorry, but without the positive spin I really don't see anything to rejoice about.

We could also talk about what happened with shipbuilding, consumer goods, electronics, etc. We are currently in the process of giving away our technology in one of the last bastions of high value added manufacturing we have left: aeronautics. With the way our dear leaders are doing business, it won't take more than 10 years before those jobs are gone for good too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're catching me short on details here. First they didn't sell one train (!) as I wrote, they sold one _phase_, that is 12 of 46 trains (24%) that were all delivered by 2000, 4 years after the contract was awarded. The rest was produced in Korea under licence which was good for the bottom line but obviously pretty bad for jobs in France. Those jobs were never to come back as Korea declared in 1996 (two years into the contract) that it was going to use the know how it had acquired from Alstom to do things in house: Alstom was not going to participate in the expansion of the high speed rail network in Korea.

Today, Korean companies compete with Alsthom for high speed rail contracts abroad.

I'm sorry, but without the positive spin I really don't see anything to rejoice about.

We could also talk about what happened with shipbuilding, consumer goods, electronics, etc. We are currently in the process of giving away our technology in one of the last bastions of high value added manufacturing we have left: aeronautics. With the way our dear leaders are doing business, it won't take more than 10 years before those jobs are gone for good too.

thats a bizarre notion though that you want to export products without actually exporting them.

how does that work?

if you want full control over your products no one will buy them. so if you dont license them you dont have any buyers.

in which case you wont have any buyers anywhere in the world for your stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thats a bizarre notion though that you want to export products without actually exporting them.

how does that work?

if you want full control over your products no one will buy them. so if you dont license them you dont have any buyers.

in which case you wont have any buyers anywhere in the world for your stuff.

I cannot imagine any business owner giving away his technology in order to make one sale.

He might as well sell the business and not bother. At least he'll get more for his know how.

That today's executives do it just serves to underline that they don't own the businesses they run and therefore don't care. I know this has been going on for a while and you might be used to it but I think it is your position that is truly bizarre.

Edited by _w_

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cannot imagine any business owner giving away his technology in order to make one sale.

He might as well close shop and not bother.

That today's executives do it just serves to underline that they don't own the businesses they run and therefore don't care. I know this has been going on for a while and you might be used to it but I think it is your position that is truly bizarre.

if youre not prepared to sell anything abroad, you cant gain anything.

how can you lose jobs that you will never have in the first place.

e.g youre saying the korean firm is now competing for business in the global market.

lets say thailand wants a new train network.

if you were never prepared to sell to korea (as they may steal your technology), youre presumably not prepared to sell to thailand either, or to anyone for that matter i.e you have no market for your products.

its like saying ive got an amazing product, but just in case someone copies it im not going to sell it to anyone.

if youre not prepared to export, how can you lose any jobs, because you never gained any in the first place?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cannot imagine any business owner giving away his technology in order to make one sale.

He might as well sell the business and not bother. At least he'll get more for his know how.

That today's executives do it just serves to underline that they don't own the businesses they run and therefore don't care. I know this has been going on for a while and you might be used to it but I think it is your position that is truly bizarre.

Harrier / Mc Donnell Douglas AV8?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Harrier / Mc Donnell Douglas AV8?

If I remember correctly, all Pegasus engines were built in the UK, which caused some consternation in America because they'd previously always licensed the rights to manufacture foreign engines themselves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're catching me short on details here. First they didn't sell one train (!) as I wrote, they sold one _phase_, that is 12 of 46 trains (24%) that were all delivered by 2000, 4 years after the contract was awarded. The rest was produced in Korea under licence which was good for the bottom line but obviously pretty bad for jobs in France. Those jobs were never to come back as Korea declared in 1996 (two years into the contract) that it was going to use the know how it had acquired from Alstom to do things in house: Alstom was not going to participate in the expansion of the high speed rail network in Korea.

Today, Korean companies compete with Alsthom for high speed rail contracts abroad.

I'm sorry, but without the positive spin I really don't see anything to rejoice about.

We could also talk about what happened with shipbuilding, consumer goods, electronics, etc. We are currently in the process of giving away our technology in one of the last bastions of high value added manufacturing we have left: aeronautics. With the way our dear leaders are doing business, it won't take more than 10 years before those jobs are gone for good too.

There is no way you can stop this. Let's say you don't sell them the planes well they can just hire half your workforce for 5x the wages and 5x the prestige than the UK.

This is going on right now in the steel industry. The growing Arab countries are paying 100kg pa no tax wages to highly experienced managers who were getting sub 50k plus taxes in the UK.

plus remember the mist important foundation of a rich country is its property laws. if you have good property laws you will be rich. you don't really need anything else. Russia was very advanced. first man in space was a Russian. yet basics were in shortage.

if you want to defend anything defend strong property laws

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cannot imagine any business owner giving away his technology in order to make one sale.

He might as well sell the business and not bother. At least he'll get more for his know how.

That today's executives do it just serves to underline that they don't own the businesses they run and therefore don't care. I know this has been going on for a while and you might be used to it but I think it is your position that is truly bizarre.

Think of it this way. You sell the tech & use the money to do more r&d and jump forward

If Intel sold its tech for 20b to the Chinese and used that 20b to jump forward just 3 years itself then China holds last gen tech which is now worthless.

If the EU did benifit to the tune of 50b much of that would directly or indirectly go into r&d to develop next gen planes. India holds last gen tech & Europe has 50b more to compete with ever improving tech from the usa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

if youre not prepared to sell anything abroad, you cant gain anything.

If you create a new competitor with every sale your business has no future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is no way you can stop this. Let's say you don't sell them the planes well they can just hire half your workforce for 5x the wages and 5x the prestige than the UK.

This is going on right now in the steel industry. The growing Arab countries are paying 100kg pa no tax wages to highly experienced managers who were getting sub 50k plus taxes in the UK.

plus remember the mist important foundation of a rich country is its property laws. if you have good property laws you will be rich. you don't really need anything else. Russia was very advanced. first man in space was a Russian. yet basics were in shortage.

if you want to defend anything defend strong property laws

I can see your point but if you give your know how away then stiffer competition forces you to lower margins and you end up having to pay your staff less.

In the short term sales may be harder if you decide not to give away key company assets as part of sale but in the long term you face limited competition.

I'm not sure how European property laws influence India's choice to buy European planes? Can you explain further?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we all get one thing straight. The informed concensus is that Eurofighter is technically and logistically the best of all of the aircraft that were on offer. For that part, it's also fair to say that its the finest aircraft flying in an airforce behind the Raptor. F35 Lightning is looking like a disaster: it will cost more than 200mln per plane, has a single engine, low wing area, and flies like a brick. I'll take a bet that several countries back out of the Lightning programme over the next 5 years because of cost, and the fact that Washington has refused to give out the software-lock codes - EVEN BRITAIN WILL NOT GET THE CODES! India knows this means they could literally have their airplanes immobilized in a war with Pakistan.

As for price. The USA plays a deceitful game - the cost is linked to number of planes sold. The unit cost of the american aircraft on offer is low because we are all forced to buy them literally in the thousands in the case of the F-teens.

I can see your point but if you give your know how away then stiffer competition forces you to lower margins and you end up having to pay your staff less.

In the short term sales may be harder if you decide not to give away key company assets as part of sale but in the long term you face limited competition.

I'm not sure how European property laws influence India's choice to buy European planes? Can you explain further?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.