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othello

No House Price Crash

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People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

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People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

Reckon you've called it too early buddy.

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People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

Debt has doubled in 8 years, jobs are being lost, Government borrowing has gone OTT

Yeah!!!

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Debt has doubled in 8 years, jobs are being lost, Government borrowing has gone OTT

Yeah!!!

Flats are standing empty.. new developments are £30,000 down and offering to pay your stamp duty and a 5% deposit.. and thats as you walk in the door..

We have oversupply and a current cost of housing that would cripple the economy if people were actually still buying at that price within two years..

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Guest boredwaiting
Reckon you've called it too early buddy.

OLDFTB, that's a pretty horrific avatar you have there....

Where did you get it :)

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also with over 100,000 people defaulting massivly on their mortages each month.. and this figure rising hugely as time goes by...

and overstretched economy with overstretched personal debt..

Its on its way

Edited by apom

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People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

Would be house buyers might certainly be dissapointed if your message carried a shred of credibility. As it is, it does'nt, so they are not.

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Oil is going up permanently.Inflation is going up worldwide.Interest rates are going up worldwide. UK will lose its "premium" incentive to foriegn investors if it does offer competative interest rates. Government is split by two who want to be prime minister. UK rates will go up , inflation can not be ignored forever. 5% interest rates in the UK will crush the market overnight. 5% is barely neutral.

PS

If you think I'm wrong put your money where your mouth is. Borrow say £200,000 GBP or if you have it even better then buy a property. All you need to do then is pray that our rates do not go above 4.75%.

Edited by delite1

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With a 10% drop in advertised prices in less than a year at least in the local EA's in Liverpool and a HPC quoted as 1% per month.

What did you expect, 30% drop overnight?

HPC's tend to be drawn out over a few years..... lets see where we are in 12 months time

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People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

of course you would like a crash Mr EA Troll, its obvious people won't buy at todays ridiculous prices :D

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OLDFTB, that's a pretty horrific avatar you have there....

Where did you get it :)

I picked it up from an Avatar website, but cannot remember which one.Just did a google search for Avatars and went to one on the first page.

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People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

Othello,

Could I politely suggest you "join the debate" rather than merely posting your opinion supported by no facts.

As one example, the NAEA recently put out a report (debated on this forum) that the average number of properties on estate agents' books had risen by 40% or so. This seems to somewhat fly in the face of your view that "the market is not flooded with sellers".

I may have missed your contribution to this thread, where you demonstrated the NAEA was talking out of its Aris and in fact the supply of property was not up at all.

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Guest Riser
People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

No sign of a crash?, HPI has reduced from 20% to 2% in a year and is about to go negative, take a look at the graph based on Nationwide data, see if you can spot the trend B)

national_redgreen2.gif Nationwide inflation adjusted national house prices sell when HPI goes negative

post-1619-1127830468_thumb.jpg

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Othello,

Could I politely suggest you "join the debate" rather than merely posting your opinion supported by no facts.

As one example, the NAEA recently put out a report (debated on this forum) that the average number of properties on estate agents' books had risen by 40% or so. This seems to somewhat fly in the face of your view that "the market is not flooded with sellers".

I may have missed your contribution to this thread, where you demonstrated the NAEA was talking out of its Aris and in fact the supply of property was not up at all.

I sense frustration in your response and that of a lot of others, but nobody has said anything to make me change my mind.

I thought my opinion might contribute to the debate and was not aware that I need to support my opinion with hard 'facts'! If you do want one though how about the Nationwide and Halifax surveys - or are they all lies?! The truth is hard to find but if you know where it is please tell me?

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No sign of a crash?, HPI has reduced from 20% to 2% in a year and is about to go negative, take a look at the graph based on Nationwide data, see if you can spot the trend B)

national_redgreen2.gif Nationwide inflation adjusted national house prices sell when HPI goes negative

Thanks for that. The evidence is quite compelling that a crash is about to occur - which I would like - but at the moment prices are actually still up on last year. If the rate does indeed reach a turning point then I agree that a crash is likely, but it may not go negative and could of course climb further.

I still maintain that prices are high but there is nothing that will trigger a crash, only stagnation.

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You may find certain places were prices have stayed relatively high, but you'll also find other area's that have dropped 10-15% from the same time last year. The ripple effect will soon bring down the house prices in the area's you think are currently stable.

Surely you can't think that the housing market will stagnate with the current state of the economy at the moment. To keep prices at high levels you need lots of buyers, and we're far short of the amount of buyers that are required to sustain the current high levels. Lenders are trying everything they can to lure the potential buyer in before it all goes pearshaped....

It's not a case of if but more like when!

We're at the top of a slippery slope, and the only way is down.

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People have been talking about a crash for a couple of years now but there is absolutely no sign of a crash. Prices are holding up, the market is not flooded with sellers, borrowing is reducing and interest rates are stable. There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash. Stagnation is the most likely way ahead. Sorry if this disappoints many of the contributors to this site, but I cannot see anything else happening.

By the way, if you are wondering, there is notrhing I would like more than a crash.

To your point about stagnation, the following quote by Dennett might be applicable:

"It is well understood in biological evolution that change occurs sharply at intervals separatedby long periods of apparent stagnation, leading to the concept of punctuated equilibrium"

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I sense frustration in your response and that of a lot of others, but nobody has said anything to make me change my mind.

I thought my opinion might contribute to the debate and was not aware that I need to support my opinion with hard 'facts'! If you do want one though how about the Nationwide and Halifax surveys - or are they all lies?! The truth is hard to find but if you know where it is please tell me?

Othello,

My frustration is about the lack of substance behind your opinion.

I hope this doesn't sound rude but if your opinion is no more valuable than the average man on the street then I'd rather you didn't share it with me (for example if you want to tell me there hasn't been a significant increase in the supply of property for sale while every piece of useful information on the subject suggests there has).

There are millions of knee-jerk, uneducated opinions around already - they aggregate to a position that says an average house price in the UK of £160k-plus makes sense. I'm reliably informed that there is "one born every minute"... and I'm no more interested in the opinons of the one born a minute ago than I am in one born 30 years ago.

That's not to say I don't want to hear from people whose opinion differs from mine, it's more I'd like to hear only from those who have a thought-out opinion.

As for the Halifax/Nationwide, now those indices are discussed at great length on this site - feel free to "join the debate".

They are taken to pieces... in terms of being about mortgage applications at an early stage of the buying process, having geographical biases, only reflecting places that have mortgages applied for on them (so places that sit on the market month after month after month are not reflected) etc, etc.

Interesting stuff... and it can help you build a picture of the market position.

Obviously both are telling you about what HAS happened so looking at them will only tell you about any crash AFTER it has happened. An argument that "they haven't fallen so they will not fall" has no great value in it I'd say.

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there is absolutely no sign of a crash

_40667138_house_070705_gra203.gif

Prices are holding up

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4193008.stm

House prices fell for the 14th month in succession in August, according to the

latest figures from Hometrack.

the market is not flooded with sellers,

http://www.hargreaveslansdown.co.uk/news/e...x.asp?code=1462

It almost seems to be a daily event for the media to provide us with reasons as to why the housing market is just about to crash around our feet. Interest rates have risen from 3.5% in July 2003 to the current 4.75%; surveys from the likes of Rightmove, Hometrack, Nationwide through to the Halifax have been reporting either a significant slowing in house price rises or even price falls; and reports of estate agents being flooded with potential sellers instructions but receiving muted interest from buyers have all added to the evidence.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=5560&st=0

Hi soldintime,

I also live in Hove and am currently renting. I have a nice healthy deposit for my first property but I'm quite happy to save money renting until prices come down significantly.

The BBC house price checker says flats in Hove have gone down 4.6% in the first quarter but this is well out of date already and I think prices have already come down 10%. Click here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...s/html/ml.stm?f

I take a fairly unhealthy interest in B&H House prices and my observations are as follows:

- the housing market is flooded. I've never before seen so many houses on the market

- properties are not selling. I live in a sought after development in Hove not far from hove and Brighton stations and in the last few years they would only be on the market for a few weeks. There are 2 now that have been for sale for about 4 months and one that's been for sale for a year.

borrowing is reducing

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/property/obtai...36;15053145.htm

There appears to be nothing out there to trigger a crash

http://www.cracker.com.au/Viewthread.aspx?...ategoryid=11061

House prices 'could tumble 25%'

Jane Padgham, Evening Standard

12 November 2004

FEARS of a housing crash escalated today after a top City economist said a fall of between 20% and 25% in property prices could not be ruled out.

Professor David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley and author of the Treasury-commissioned report into long-term fixed-rate mortgages, said the growing perception that housing is overvalued could be sufficient to tip the market into a sharp slide.

'A significant fall in nominal house prices is not implausible,' Miles said. 'It does not require some trigger such as a rise in interest rates or unemployment. Expectations of a degree of overvaluation becoming widespread can itself be a factor driving prices down.'

Edited by IPOD

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Orthello - the arguments for a ‘crash’ are based on looking at p/e ratios, the idea of cycles and bubbles, and a careful interpretation of the historical data – this allows you to place the current situation in some sort of context, and, hopefully, make a stab at figuring out what comes next. The basic mechanisms are reasonably straightforward, but determining the timing (in the absence of anything that actually kicks it over) is next to impossible until after the event (even the BBC was using the bubble word back in 2001), and, of course, the level of the eventual fall out (exit p/e, effect of low IRs) is a subject still up for debate. :)

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Fair enough, but I suspect if I had made an unsubstantiated statement supporting the idea of a crash you wouldn't have bothered responding. I other words you are critical of statements that do not align with your own view/desire.

Regarding the crash. It hasn't happened. The stats show prices still rising (slowly) and only falling (slightly) in a few areas. Yes there are more properties on the market but a 40$ increase does not constitute a flooded market!

My point was that none of the fundementals point to an imminent crash - interest rates are low and are unlikely to rise significantly, as inflation is also low and predicted to rise only slightly in the next twelve months. Borrowing is reducing as people attempt to shed some of their debt. Employment is rising slightly but is still at an historic low. So employment, interest rates and borrowing are all suggesting stagnation, not a crash, in the house market and indeed in the broader economy.

Something bigger needs to happen to trigger a crash.

I would be interested to know you would see a crash unfolding.

B)

To wuote from one of your own links:

"Nevertheless, any significant renewed strengthening of house prices seems unlikely for some time to come given still stretched affordability ratios. Equally though, a sharp correction in house prices currently seems unlikely. Consequently, we are sticking to our view that house prices are likely to remain relatively flat for an extended period."

Doesn't this support my point?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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